By Adam Pagnucco.
Comptroller Peter Franchot has placed the full-page ad below in three local newspapers in the district of his mortal enemy, Senate President Mike Miller. We don’t believe that Franchot can actually defeat Miller. But when it comes to these two politicians who have despised each other for decades, it’s the thought that counts!
By Adam Pagnucco.
Marc Elrich’s blast email below summarizes his message and rallies his troops for the final hours of the campaign.
*****
Your help in the next 80 hours will be critical
Friends,
I’m running for County Executive because we have an important choice in this election. On one side are developers and their allies, who have long had too much influence in county government (I’m the only County Councilmember, and only County Executive candidate, to never take their campaign money). They’re spreading misinformation and opposing my candidacy because they know I’ll make them pay their fair share for schools, transit, and green space.
On the other side are teachers, nurses, firefighters, environmentalists, labor unions, progressives, and twenty other organizations who have endorsed me because they know I’ll always stand with you. I would be honored to have your support as well.
With a little less than three days left before polls open on election day, my campaign is working around the clock and could use your help with the items below. Whether you can give money or time, anything you can do could be the difference between a win and a loss. Here’s what we need:
1) Donations. $2,945 in small donations this weekend is what we need to finish this election strong. If you haven’t given the $150 individual maximum yet, please contribute now. If you have already given the $150 maximum, please ask a family member or friend to contribute.
2) Volunteers. If you can door knock, phone bank, staff a polling location, or drive materials to people who need it, please let us know.
3) An Appeal. Your neighbors and colleagues trust you more than anyone – please send them an email or put out a message on social media letting them know why you’re voting for me and asking them to do so, too.
I also hope you’ll join me at the Barking Dog to watch the election results come in on Tuesday night. With your help, I think we’ll have a lot to celebrate.
Thanks,
Marc
By Adam Pagnucco.
District 18 House candidate Mila Johns has sent out a mailer calling for an end to MoCo’s liquor monopoly. The mailer contains an endorsement from Comptroller Peter Franchot, a hero to monopoly opponents who has been calling for its end for years. This is the first mailer we can recall seeing on this subject and we appreciate Johns’s courage in calling this question so publicly.
By Adam Pagnucco.
Early voting wrapped up yesterday and the State Board of Elections has posted results. Folks, we can say this: a wild race just got a whole lot wilder.
First, as we saw from the first day of early voting, turnout is waaaay up. Here is the distribution by party in the 2014 and 2018 primaries.
Early voting is up for everyone but especially for Democrats.
Now here is the early voting by Congressional, State Legislative and County Council districts.
The biggest increases in early voting have occurred in State District 15, State District 16, Council District 1 and Congressional District 6. The lowest increases – by far – have occurred in State District 20 and Council District 5.
Below we show early voting by gender and age group.
Women have an edge here but not a huge one. The age group results are astounding. Turnout is up by a gigantic amount for people aged 18 through 24. It went up by the least amount for people aged 45 through 64.
Additionally, one of the campaigns analyzed the voting patterns of those who voted early for us. Roughly half the Democratic early voters had voted in at least two of the last three mid-term primaries (2006, 2010 and 2014). The other half had voted less regularly or not at all.
We draw the following tentative conclusions from this data.
1. Voters in Congressional District 6 and nearby areas turned out more strongly than the rest of the county. This might reflect the intense campaigning of the congressional candidates there and especially the massive spending by David Trone. This is good news for countywide candidates who run strong in those places.
2. Voters in District 20 – the liberal heart of MoCo that includes Takoma Park and inside-the-Beltway Silver Spring – did not turn out to the same extent. This is not a great thing for countywide candidates whose base is in that area and is especially bad for County Executive candidate Marc Elrich.
3. Tons and tons of voters who are not targeted by most campaigns – especially young people, irregular voters and new voters – have come out and are roughly equal to the super Dems. This adds an element of unpredictability to the race. For the most part, these voters are not getting overwhelmed by mail, door knocks and phone calls as are super Dems. How are they getting information on local races? Television is one source. Those campaigns with the resources for a huge target universe (like Trone and David Blair) are communicating with them while others are not. If they are using Google to research candidates, they are encountering sources like Bethesda Magazine and the blogs since few other sites write about down-ticket races. Some of them may not be voting down-ticket at all and may only be casting votes for Governor and Congress.
4. And finally, we offer our standard caveat: we don’t know if higher early voting will cannibalize from election day voting or add to it. We won’t know that until Tuesday night.
This is a helluva race, folks. Every time we think we might be starting to figure it out – BAM! – something unexpected happens. If you’re a MoCo political junkie like we are, this election is one for the ages!
By David Lublin and Adam Pagnucco.
Folks, this is an unusual joint post from the two of us. David and Adam both live in District 18 and we’ve seen a lot of action here over the last few cycles, so we decided to write this one together. Each of our remarks are labeled so you know who is saying what. We begin by printing the June financial summary and the endorsements below. We include the Senate candidates in that data but today’s post is on the House race.
Update: The original totals we reported for Emily Shetty were incorrrect. The correct ones are below.
David
District 18 is blessed with eight (count ‘em!) candidates for the three delegate seats. How is the race shaping up as we head into Election Day?
Helga Luest created one of the real moments of the campaign when she attacked Del. Jeff Waldstreicher, a candidate for Senate, as sexist for trying to recruit her into the Senate race. Her “low carb” campaign is catchy but makes me think about the Atkins Diet rather than carbon emissions and the environment.
Regardless, Helga is not likely to come in the money because she just hasn’t raised enough of it to engage in sufficient voter contact. Ron Franks has run an earnest campaign and made a positive impression on voters who have met or seen him but faces the same fundamental problem. Like Helga, Ron has raised less than $15K, which is just not enough to win.
That leaves six other candidates, including incumbent Del. Al Carr. (Disclosure: I am supporting Al.) Maryland Matters sees Al as highly vulnerable, pointing to his past victories as part of a slate and that he has raised less money than several other aggressive, hungry candidates.
I see it differently. Though he has less money, he has raised just a hair under $100K, plenty of money for a delegate race and well over the threshold needed for sufficient voter contact. A former municipal official, Al has cultivated a network of support among local municipal, civic and environmental activists.
This is Al’s fourth time on the ballot with two previous victories under his belt, so he has greater name recognition. I also note that Al has managed to do just fine even when opposed by the Washington Post and the Post isn’t making endorsements this year. Finally, he has far more endorsements than the other candidates. In a crowded race, he has consistent support.
Adam
I agree with David that Helga Luest and Ron Franks don’t have the resources to compete. I think Al Carr will probably win but I am less confident of that than David. In 2010 and 2014, Al ran as part of a united slate of incumbents headed by Senator Rich Madaleno. (I was the slate Treasurer from 2008 through 2012.) In the one race that he ran by himself – 2006 – he finished seventh of eight. Times are different now because Al is the only incumbent running for one of three seats. That’s a huge advantage. But the Delegate field is very strong this year with several well-financed and hungry new candidates. I think Al will win but if he doesn’t I won’t be shocked.
David
Emily Shetty came in a strong fourth in 2014 and worked very hard to maintain visibility since the last election. She was a leader in the D18 Democratic Caucus and now on MCDCC as a gender-balance appointee. She has raised more than last time, though less than anyone besides Luest or Franks, and doesn’t face a slate of incumbents. Emily has tried to position herself as left wing and a new mom, succeeding better at the latter.
Word on the street is that Emily has been working very hard at the doors and run a good, focused campaign. Though she missed out on the Apple Ballot, Emily has secured a number of nice endorsements, partly because organizations perceive her as a likely winner. The one major downside: she was endorsed by the Washington Post last time and used the endorsement well to close strong. She won’t have that advantage this time.
By all rights, Leslie Milano ought to be out of the mix. She entered the race late, has fewer endorsements and has raised less money than all but Shetty, Franks and Luest. Nevertheless, Leslie has managed to make herself a strong contender. Though still relatively young, she is a bit older than several candidates and has made a consistent impression as someone with a real edge in terms of experience and maturity. Combined with authenticity, she strikes many voters as trustworthy and with the potential to be a strong delegate. At least in my area, she has sent out unusually strong neighbor letters with grassroots support. Still, she is making up ground.
Adam
I like Emily and Leslie very much. Emily should be a model for politicians who lose their first race. The temptation is to say, “Never again!” and go back to a sane life. That’s totally understandable! But Emily decided to stay involved, joining the Central Committee and working with both Action Committee for Transit and the Wheaton Hills Civic Association. She has many more relationships now than when she first ran and is a stronger candidate. I think she will win.
Leslie is one of my favorite new candidates in the entire county. She is a very smart, charismatic and experienced person who is also a hard worker and a good listener. Most of my friends in the D18 activist community love her to death. She’s also versatile. If you’re a progressive, you will love her work to pressure sweatshops to clean up their acts earlier in her career. If you’re more of a moderate, you will love her emphasis on jobs and the economy. But as David noted, she got in late and that hurt her ability to garner institutional endorsements. If Leslie doesn’t win this time, I would like to see her come back and try again.
David
Jared Solomon is a young teacher and I hear repeated whispers from many that he’s extremely nice and seems on track to win one of the delegate seats. While his fundraising is lower than some at $93K, it is certainly well above the threshold for a strong campaign and Jared has run a very hard, engaging campaign. Among the non-incumbents, only Emily can go toe-to-toe in endorsements and he is on the Apple Ballot.
If this election were about signs and money, Joel Rubin would win a walk. In the Town of Chevy Chase, where he won election to the Town Council in 2017, I see about twenty of his signs as I walk into Bethesda. At $152K, he has also raised more money than anyone else in the field. As my mailbox indicates, he is closing with a lot of mail. A former political appointee in the State Department, Joel has real communication skills and a lot of foreign policy experience.
Joel sought the Democratic nomination for Congress in 2016. In terms of votes, it didn’t go well but he acquitted himself well and it turns out his donors were still ready to help fund his state legislative campaign just two years later. This previous campaign expanded his name recognition but his emphasis on national politics, including in some campaign videos, and running for offices at different levels of government, may not play well with all voters. On the other hand, his videos about his family are among the best and a great, authentic American story. He’s on the Apple Ballot but has few other endorsements from groups.
Mila Johns has made a real presence on social media. She speaks her mind both on Facebook and in forums, coming across as an opinionated, honest, straight shooter – welcome characteristics in an age where people are tired of canned politicians. At the same time, though social media is important, nothing beats meeting voters and our Facebook circles are often tighter loops than we realize.
Mila is also just a bit behind Joel in terms of having raised money and started sending mail out earlier than other candidates (i.e. before we started getting ten pieces a day). Like Leslie, she could use a few more endorsements but has accomplished the difficult feat of standing out in a crowded field in a very busy election year.
Adam
Jared is one of the strongest candidates in the race. He has done everything right – he’s on more doors than an encyclopedia salesman, he makes a great impression, he has raised decent money and he has a bunch of endorsements. He is also the only candidate who has ever mailed me a personal, handwritten thank you letter after a round of drinks. I love old school manners like that! Mila and Joel are good candidates who have enough money and support to be in the mix too.
Overall, this field is outstanding and is a result of the electoral spigot finally opening after three straight terms of the same four incumbents. I wouldn’t trade our House candidates with any other district in the state. I expect Emily, Jared and Al to win with Leslie having a chance to break through and Mila and Joel also getting big shares of votes.
David
This is a great field of candidates and District 18 is guaranteed to have turnover in at least one-half of its state legislative delegation. The newbies may be in office a long time, so make your choices thoughtfully.
By Adam Pagnucco.
MoCo Democrats are not monolithic. There are several segments of them. There are the 40,000 or so Super Democrats, the ones who vote in every mid-term primary. Then there are the sixty percent of MoCo Dems who are women. There are the voters who live in the Democratic Crescent – the area from Takoma Park over to Bethesda and Cabin John – who disproportionately turn out to vote. And of course there are people over age 60, who account for a majority of regular voters. Candidates are aware of all of these groups and target their communications to them. But there’s one group – potentially a big one – which few people are talking about.
Term limits voters.
In the 2016 general election, 70% of voters approved term limits. We know that a majority of the Democrats who voted in that election supported term limits because of simple mathematics. In that election, 62% of the voters were Democrats. If all 38% of the voters who were Republicans, third party members or independents voted yes, then the other 32% must have come from the Dems. Divide 32% by 62% and you get 52% of Dems voting for term limits. If a few of the non-Dems voted no, the Dem percentage goes up.
The other thing we know about term limits voters is where they live. Every part of the county voted for term limits except Takoma Park. In most Downcounty areas, term limits support ranged from 60% to 70%. Upcounty areas were more supportive with term limits getting 80% or more of the vote in Clarksburg, Damascus, Derwood, Laytonsville, North Potomac and Poolesville. Upcounty areas have greater concentrations of Republicans than elsewhere. We ran a correlation coefficient between Republican voter percentage and term limits vote percentage at the precinct level and it worked out to 0.6 – meaning that partisan status was associated with most, but not all, of term limits variability. In other words, other things were at work too.
That’s about all we know about term limits voters from public data. There’s a whole lot we don’t know, including:
How many people who voted for term limits in that general election are going to be voting in this mid-term primary?
We have said it before and we will say it again: MoCo Dem primary voters are not the same people as MoCo general election voters. Just because a majority of presidential general election Dems voted for term limits does not mean that a majority of this year’s mid-term primary Dems will have voted for them. In fact, we bet it will be a lot less purely because the 40,000 or so Super Dems will be somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of this year’s electorate and we are skeptical that they disproportionately voted for term limits. That said, the number of term limits voters this year won’t be zero – they are definitely out there. Even if you split the difference and assume that a quarter of this year’s Dem primary voters supported term limits, that’s a big enough chunk to swing an election.
Why did people vote for term limits?
This is another question to which there is no answer outside of polling. We tend to agree with former Council Member Steve Silverman, who told Bethesda Magazine, “It was a combination of interests that created the perfect storm that led to the passage of term limits.” In other words, there were many factors that drove those votes: anger with the nine percent property tax hike, concerns over land use, unhappiness with traffic and cost of living or maybe a simple desire for change, however nebulous that might be. While we believe that the Dem primary electorate is indeed different from the general electorate of two years ago, we don’t believe those concerns have gone away.
Who will they support this time?
That’s an easier question. Whatever the reason, it’s hard to interpret the vote for term limits as anything other than a call for change of some kind. The current Democratic field for Executive contains three term-limited Council Members and three people who are not term-limited Council Members. That’s a little simplistic – Marc Elrich is running as a progressive change candidate despite his 31-year history of elected office. But since Takoma Park is Elrich’s home base and that is the only area in the county which voted against term limits, we are hesitant to believe that many term limits supporters are Elrich voters. Rather, we believe they will lean to the three outsiders – Delegate Bill Frick (D-16), former Rockville Mayor Rose Krasnow and businessman David Blair. And of those three, Blair has by far the most resources with which to communicate with them.
Speaking of Blair, we found his recent exchange with Washington Post reporter Jennifer Barrios fascinating.
When asked about his political base, David Blair considers the question then poses one of his own.
“My political base,” he says after a pause. “So does that mean who’s going to come out and support me?”…
“The people that tend to gravitate to me are the ones that believe Montgomery County is a great place to live but we’re slipping,” Blair said. “And there’s a level of frustration, and it could be related to transportation, schools, social services and this — why can’t a county with this level of wealth pay for the services that we need? — and a recognition that a healthy community needs a vibrant, growing business community.”
Those people sound like term limits voters and they have the makings of a political base. Marc Elrich knows exactly who his base is: progressives, development opponents and people who live in and around Takoma Park. Elrich’s messaging smartly concentrates on those voter segments. His troops’ ability to get out those votes is a major reason why he might be the next Executive.
Term limits voters won’t be a majority of the Democratic mid-term primary electorate. But they might be large enough in numbers to rival the size of Elrich’s base. If Blair can organize them – and if there are enough of them – we might be staying up late on election night.
By Adam Pagnucco.
Yesterday, Council Member Hans Riemer critiqued his colleague, County Executive candidate Marc Elrich, on Facebook. Today, Elrich responded to Riemer in the video below released by MCM.
Today, a list of Ben Jealous’s compensated speaking engagements popped into my email inbox. Apparently, Jealous has frequently charged high fees at public universities that contrast uneasily with his demands to make college tuition free.
Read the full file, entitled “Jealous Charged Public Universities & Community Colleges Over $85,000 In Speaking Fees Amid Tuition Hikes & University Budget Crises” below:
