Monthly Archives: May 2018

Adam Pagnucco

Realtors Endorse Frick, Council Candidates

By Adam Pagnucco.

The Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors (GCAAR) has endorsed the following candidates in MoCo races:

Bill Frick – County Executive

Gabe Albornoz, Marilyn Balcombe, Hoan Dang, Evan Glass – Council At-Large

Craig Rice – Council District 2

Sidney Katz – Council District 3

Nancy Navarro – Council District 4

Tom Hucker – Council District 5

No endorsement was made in Council District 1.

The Realtors are the most influential endorsing organization in MoCo’s business community because of their volume of activity at election time.  In 2014, they spent well into six figures on independent mail and PAC contributions.  Despite every one of their county-level candidates winning except District 5’s Evan Glass (who came close), their reward was a recordation tax hike that they bitterly opposed two years later.  Rarely has a group done so much and gotten so little in MoCo politics!

This time around, when they had a chance to oppose an incumbent who voted for the recordation tax hike, they did.  Council Members Roger Berliner, Marc Elrich, George Leventhal and Hans Riemer, all of whom are in contested races, were left off their list.  Rice, Navarro and Hucker have nominal opposition and are sure to be reelected.  Sidney Katz’s opponent, Ben Shnider, is running to his left and was probably not a realistic option.  The selection of Delegate Bill Frick for Executive, who is running scorching Facebook ads against the County Council, sends a message of discontent.

The big question now is how much the Realtors will do to support their candidates.  We are a little more than a month away from early voting.  Albornoz, Dang, Glass, Katz and Navarro are in public financing and cannot accept PAC checks.  After getting burned last time, will the Realtors sink six figures into mail again?  We will find out.  Meanwhile, the Washington Post endorsement looms.

We reprint the Realtors’ email below.

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Adam Pagnucco, Economy

Taxpayer Flight from MoCo, Part Five

By Adam Pagnucco.

Today, we conclude looking at jurisdictions with whom MoCo has had inflows and outflows of tax returns and adjusted gross incomes.

Loudoun County

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: -1,507 (outflow)

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: -$208 million (outflow)

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $76,287

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $100,587

Migrant income gap: Out-migrants earned 32% more than in-migrants

Loudoun has been the fastest-growing large jurisdiction in the Washington region for a long time and was once one of the fastest-growing places in the country.  Much of its growth has come from people relocating from Fairfax but it has gained some folks from MoCo too.  As the wealthiest county in the nation, it’s no surprise that its migrants from MoCo skew to high earners.

Howard County

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: -2,859 (outflow)

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: -$400 million (outflow)

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $72,231

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $90,724

Migrant income gap: Out-migrants earned 26% more than in-migrants

Howard is MoCo’s smaller and wealthier neighbor to the northeast.  It gains relatively small amounts from MoCo every year but set a record in 2016, when $131 million of taxpayer income left MoCo for Howard.  Howard’s schools and quality of life are comparable to MoCo but its significant distance from D.C. has limited its ability to compete for people who work downtown.  Ironically, the joint bus rapid transit route on US-29 that MoCo is working on with Howard could help remedy that disadvantage. 

Fairfax County

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: -2,382 (outflow)

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: -$497 million (outflow)

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $70,796

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $93,521

Migrant income gap: Out-migrants earned 32% more than in-migrants

Fairfax has had more taxpayer flight than MoCo overall and is losing a ton of income to Loudoun ($2.5 billion over the last decade).  But in head-to-head competition, Fairfax siphons millions in taxpayer income from MoCo every year, setting a record in 2013 with a net gain of $112 million.  A big reason for Fairfax’s gains is that the people who move from MoCo to Fairfax made 32% more money than those who moved in the opposite direction over the last decade. 

Frederick County

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: -7,170 (outflow)

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: -$582 million (outflow)

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $59,150

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $69,017

Migrant income gap: Out-migrants earned 17% more than in-migrants

MoCo’s smaller neighbor to the north has been feeding off the county for years.  Frederick’s biggest gains from MoCo occurred from 2002 through 2007 during the latter’s housing price boom.  Frederick is not siphoning off anywhere near the amount of income that Loudoun is getting from Fairfax, but the inflow of people from MoCo has helped change its county seat’s downtown, its demographics  and its politics.

Virginia

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: -5,638 (outflow)

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: -$851 million (outflow)

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $70,701

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $83,010

Migrant income gap: Out-migrants earned 17% more than in-migrants

MoCo has lost significant amounts to Virginia over the years, with the biggest income losses occurring in 2013 ($152 million) and 2012 ($109 million).  Fairfax is the biggest culprit, followed by Loudoun and the rest of Northern Virginia.  The pace of income lost has picked up considerably since the early 1990s.

Florida

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: -2,769 (outflow)

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: -$907 million (outflow)

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $70,112

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $132,459

Migrant income gap: Out-migrants earned 89% more than in-migrants

Everyone has heard the stories of rich people and/or retirees moving from MoCo to Florida.  Well, those stories might be true: more MoCo income has been lost to Florida than to Virginia over the last decade.  The number of people moving to Florida is less than those moving to Virginia.  But the average income of those moving from MoCo to Florida – $132,459 – is large in both absolute terms and when compared to those moving in reverse ($70,112).  One more thing: the last four years saw the biggest net loss of taxpayer income to Florida ($552 million) of any four-year period on record.

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2018 Governor's Race

Vignarajah’s Farcical Claims

Can we please stop pretending that Krish Viganarajah comes close to meeting the legal requirements to run for governor?

Candidates for governor of Maryland have to be registered in the State for five years. Yesterday, the Washington Post published three legal documents in which Krish Vignarajah claimed D.C. residency as recently as 2014 and 2016.

In response to a query from the D.C. Board of Elections, Vignarajah signed her name to confirm that she is a D.C. resident and should be able to vote there rather than Maryland:

The real kicker is in the first paragraph, which makes clear that they are asking her to confirm that she resides and should be registered in D.C. even though she is listed on the registry in Maryland. This form makes explicit that she intentionally abandoned her Maryland residency and registration.

Vignarajah got married in 2016 in Dorchester County. Even though she now says that she was a Maryland resident and legally registered voter, she listed D.C. as her residence on her Maryland license application:

In other words, even though she got married in Maryland and had a marriage license in our state, she claimed residency elsewhere.

Of course, Vignarajah’s original voter registration application from 2010 also attests to her D.C. residency:

Remember that Vignarajah has only voted in Maryland once in her entire life.

Her response to this evidence is ridiculous:

Maryland is and always has been home. Temporarily residing outside of Maryland, whether it’s for school or work, does not change my permanent residence, as a matter of law or common sense.

I know Vignarajah is a trained attorney but it’s still impressive that she can say this with a straight face. Residing for years in another state or the District changes your permanent residence except under specific legal circumstances (e.g. being a student or in the military). Indeed, common sense wisdom is the exact opposite of her claim.

All the legal experience it takes to file taxes makes this even clearer. Incidentally, Vignarajah petulantly promised to release her taxes if other candidates do so. Rich Madaleno and Jim Shea have released theirs but we’re still waiting for hers, probably because they are yet further evidence of her D.C. residence.

It would be a disaster if Vignarajah won the nomination, as Republicans would challenge her eligibility and likely win:

A Hogan spokesman declined to comment. But other Republicans, including Del. Joe Cluster (Baltimore County), the former state GOP executive director, said someone in the party would surely attempt to challenge Vignarajah if she were the nominee.

“She shouldn’t be able to be on the ballot,” Cluster said. “If I was executive director of the Maryland Republican Party and she was the nominee for the Democrats, I would challenge her running for governor.”

Were such a challenge permitted, the government documents and Vignarajah’s voting history would be “a killer,” said Timothy Maloney, a lawyer and former Democratic state lawmaker who is not supporting anyone in the primary. “It would be almost impossible to overcome.”

Even if she somehow beat the challenge because it was too late to make it, Hogan’s team will make endless hay out of her five minute legal residence.

Krish Vignarajah should resign from the race.

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women

Why Women Hold Fewer Elective Offices

Yesterday, I reviewed political science research revealing that women who run for Congress do just as well as men and, contrary to public perception, do not face hostile press coverage that harps on their gender and appearance.

So why are there substantially fewer women than men in public office?

Today and in the next post, I focus on two key factors: First, women are less likely to run for public office than men. Second, the type of office greatly shapes who runs and wins.

My discussion today relies heavily on research by Jennifer Lawless and Richard Fox, particularly their articles in the American Journal of Political Science and American Political Science Review. The APSR is widely viewed as the top journal in political science and the AJPS is one of the top three venues to publish work in American politics.

Fewer Women Run

Lawless and Fox’s Citizen Political Ambition Study surveyed 3,765 people (1,969 men and 1,796 women) they considered highly eligible to run for office, largely people in the professions of law, business and education.

Among this group of potential candidates, 59% of men but just 43% of women said that they considered running for office. The probability that those who considered running actually sought office also revealed gender differences with 20% of men but only 15% of women taking the plunge to enter the political arena.

Interestingly, among those who did run, 63% of the women held public office as opposed to 59% of men. Unlike the gender differences mentioned in the previous paragraph, this one is not statistically significant. If we want more women in public office, we need to focus on the barriers that deter women from running.

Barriers to Women Running for Office

Fox and Lawless find that women are less likely than men to discuss the possibility of running for office with family and friends (22% of women v. 33% of men), community leaders (9% v. 15%), and party leaders (6% v. 12%) than their male counterparts. Improved outreach seems a straightforward way to overcome this barrier.

Next, Fox and Lawless showed that men are more likely than women to consider running for office even when they have similar perceptions of their qualifications:

Source: Richard L. Fox and Jennifer L. Lawless, “Entering the Arena? Gender and the Decision to Run for Office,” American Journal of Political Science 48: 2(April 2004), p. 273.

As the table shows, women who see themselves as “not at all” or “somewhat” qualified are far less likely than men who see themselves the same way to consider running for office. The yawning gap shrinks dramatically, but does not disappear, at higher qualification levels.

It’s really a double whammy.  Women are not only less likely to perceive themselves as qualified but also are less likely to run even when they have the same perception of their qualifications to run for office as men.

Interestingly, Fox and Lawless argue that two suspected culprits, family responsibilities and having a more traditional political cultural outlook (i.e. being more moralistic) do not shape the likelihood of running for office after controlling for other factors such as income, age, encouragement, and self-perceived qualifications.

Going deeper into the subject matter, Fox and Lawless find that gender differences in political ambition surface in both high school and college students. Their survey revealed that young women are less likely than young men to think about running for office:

Source: Richard L. Fox and Jennifer L. Lawless, “Uncovering the Origins of the Gender Gap in Political Ambition,” American Political Science Review 108: 3(August 2014), p. 502.

They find that gender differences that help drive these differences in political ambition are especially pronounced among college students:

Source: Richard L. Fox and Jennifer L. Lawless, “Uncovering the Origins of the Gender Gap in Political Ambition,” American Political Science Review 108: 3(August 2014), p. 510.

Family members are more likely to suggest to college men that they run for office. College women are less likely to discuss politics or visit political websites. Perhaps most jarringly, college women are less likely than college men to think they will be qualified to run for office in the future.

In the final part of this three-part series, I examine how the type of office also shapes whether women run or win.

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Garrett Park

Voters Oust Longest Serving Garrett Park Mayor

In a close election, the voters of Garrett Park turned out incumbent Mayor Peter Benjamin and elected former Town Councilmember Kacky Chantry to the position. The two incumbent candidates for the Town Council were unopposed.

Mayor
Kacky Chantry, 243
Peter Benjamin (i), 232

Council
Jane McClintock (i), 341
Hans Wagner (i), 338

Turnout
Registered Voters, 903
Ballots Cast, 478
Rejected Ballots, 0

Benjamin has served as Mayor of Garrett Park repeatedly, first being elected to the position in 1996 and 1998. Nancy Floreen, now an at-large County Councilmember, then served a single term. After winning election to the Council in 2002, Benjamin was then appointed to fill a mayoral vacancy (caused, I imagine, by Mayor Floreen’s election to the County Council).

Benjamin served another term on the Council from 2005 through 2007. He began his most recent stretch as mayor in 2012 and was reelected to two more terms in 2014 and 2016 before being defeated by 11 votes in this election.  Adding his six terms together, Benjamin has served twice as long as any other mayor of the Town.

Incoming Mayor Kacky Chantry previously served two terms on the Town Council starting in 2013. You can learn more about the views of the incoming mayor and all of the candidates from the most recent edition of the Garrett Park Bugle.

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Adam Pagnucco, washington post

Washington Post Endorsements Should be Coming Out Soon

By Adam Pagnucco.

Most influential endorsements have been made in our state and local races but one big one still has to drop: the Washington Post.  In contested races for Executive and County Council over the last three cycles, the Post has gone 18-7 – a 72% win rate.  Its misses included Howie Denis (Council D1, 2006), Mike Subin and Bo Newsome (Council At-Large, 2006), Royce Hanson (Council District 2, 2010), Duchy Trachtenberg (Council At-Large, 2010), Tom Moore (Council District 3, 2014) and Evan Glass (Council District 5, 2014).  Other than maybe Newsome, all of these were credible candidates and three (Denis, Subin and Trachtenberg) were incumbents.  In 2014, the first mid-term year in which Maryland had a June primary, the Post endorsed for Executive on May 2, for County Council on May 26 and for General Assembly on May 30.  Candidates are eager for the Post to endorse sooner rather than later because they would like to add the endorsement to their yard signs, mail and walk lit.

We know that the Post has been interviewing Executive and County Council candidates.  We would not be surprised if their endorsement for Executive comes out in a matter of days.

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Kevin Kamenetz

Valerie Ervin Issues Statement

Valerie Ervin Issues Statement Following the Passing of Kevin Kamenetz
PIKESVILLE, MD (May 10, 2018) — Valerie Ervin today issued the following statement:

“Like so many, I am shocked and heartbroken by this sudden and unexpected loss. I want to thank those across Maryland for their outpouring of support, sympathy, and gratitude during this difficult time.

“Kevin was first and foremost a loving husband to his wife Jill and a proud father to Karson and Dylan. And he was a dedicated, bold leader who served the people of Baltimore County for over 20 years. I have been honored to call him a friend and partner.

“Today all of Maryland mourns with his family, friends, and loved ones.”
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Adam Pagnucco, Economy

Taxpayer Flight from MoCo, Part Four

By Adam Pagnucco.

In Part Three, we saw that MoCo’s problem of taxpayer flight is shared by most jurisdictions in the Washington region.  But what happens when we look at MoCo’s taxpayer inflows and outflows to and from each of its large neighbors?  From whom does MoCo gain income on net?  And to whom does MoCo lose income on net?

We looked at net gains and losses between MoCo and nine other local jurisdictions plus two states.  Let’s start with the two jurisdictions from which MoCo has net gains of taxpayer income: D.C. and Prince George’s.

District of Columbia

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: +1,070 (inflow)

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: +$417 million (inflow)

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $94,696

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $83,038

Migrant income gap: In-migrants earned 12% more than out-migrants

MoCo almost always drains tens of millions of dollars in taxpayer income each year from D.C.  That’s because it gets more in-migrants from D.C. than out-migrants and the in-migrants make more.  This fits a pattern of young people living in D.C. and then moving to the suburbs as their incomes grow and they are ready to have kids.  However, as D.C.’s economy has improved since the 1990s, the District’s net income flow to MoCo has diminished over time.  In 2015, D.C. even netted a gain of $40 million from MoCo, the first time the District ended up on the plus side of this ledger since this data series began in 1993.

Prince George’s County

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: +834 (inflow)

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: +$39 million (inflow)

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $42,894

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $42,802

Migrant income gap: In-migrants earned about the same as out-migrants

In the 1990s, MoCo consistently enjoyed positive income inflows from Prince George’s, but that began to change in the 2000s.  In the last fifteen years, MoCo lost money to Prince George’s seven times.  MoCo may still have a slight advantage but it’s very tenuous and could slip away.

Alexandria City

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: -346 (outflow)

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: -$7 million (outflow)

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $78,961

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $73,304

Migrant income gap: In-migrants earned 7% more than out-migrants

There’s not a ton of migration between MoCo and Alexandria and the two jurisdictions roughly break even, although MoCo’s balance has deteriorated a bit in recent years.

Arlington County

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: -1,103 (outflow)

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: -$8 million (outflow)

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $85,154

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $72,852

Migrant income gap: Out-migrants earned 14% more than in-migrants

As with Alexandria, MoCo roughly breaks even with Arlington.  Again, MoCo’s balance has gotten slightly worse in recent years.

Prince William County

Net change in tax returns, 2006-2016: -289 (outflow)

Net change in adjusted gross income ($2016), 2006-2016: -$33 million (outflow)

Adjusted gross income of in-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $50,076

Adjusted gross income of out-migrants ($2016), 2006-2016: $57,436

Migrant income gap: Out-migrants earned 15% more than in-migrants

Prince William has received small inflows of income from MoCo that have diminished in recent years.  Most people moving between the two counties fall in the lower end of the region’s income distribution.

We will conclude tomorrow.

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Kevin Kamenetz

Kevin Kamenetz Died This Morning

Kevin Kamenetz Announces for Governor

In shocking and horrible news, Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz died early this morning at University of Maryland St. Joseph Medical Center after cardiac arrest.

Kamenetz was completing his second term as county executive as he launched his gubernatorial bid. Previously, the former prosecutor served four terms on the Baltimore County Council. As the county executive of a large, swing county with deep Baltimore roots, he was a top-tier candidate. Former Montgomery County Councilmember Valerie Ervin was his running mate.

Kamenetz is survived by his wife and two sons. My heart goes out to them and all members of the Kamenetz family.

You can read reports from the Washington Post and Baltimore Sun.

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women

What You Believe about Why Fewer Women Hold Legislative Office is Probably Wrong

The U.S. House up for grabs and many women are running as challengers today incumbents and for open seats. Del. Aruna Miller’s bid for the open Sixth Congressional District is a great example. Many Americans believe that it is harder for women than men to run and to win these elections. In particular, women are subjected to sexist media coverage with too much focus on how they appear. Female candidates also find it harder to raise money and face bias from voters, so they have to be more qualified than men to win election to Congress.

None of this is true.

More specifically, political science research on congressional elections doesn’t support these conclusions. Gender matters in elections but it doesn’t shape House elections in these ways.

Today’s post borrows heavily from research by Jennifer Lawless. Jen is Professor of Government at AU, though we are unfortunately losing her to UVA in the Fall, and Director of the Women and Politics Institute. She has written much of the best and most cutting edge scholarship on women running for office. In particular, I rely on a book she coauthored with GWU Prof. Danny Hayes, Women on the Run: Gender, Media and Political Campaigns in a Polarized Era.

Media Coverage

Let’s start with the media. In their study, Hayes and Lawless looked at articles in the top local newspaper from the last month of every 2010 and 2014 congressional campaign. Despite their decline, newspapers remain the most influential source of U.S. House campaign coverage. Among the 4,524 articles coded, they found exactly 32 references to candidate appearance:Source: Danny Hayes and Jennifer L. Lawless, Women on the Run, p. 66.

In other words, 0.7% of newspaper campaign coverage mentioned appearance. Rather than harping constantly on candidate appearance, such discussion is almost nonexistent in newspaper coverage of congressional candidates. One reason for the decline is that the novelty of women running for Congress has vanished for the most part.

Another is that men and women run very similar campaigns in terms of the issues that they discuss. Hayes and Lawless find that party plays a far greater role than gender. Analysis of congressional candidate television ads and tweets reveals that candidates tend to emphasize similar issues with gender differences being small and only rarely statistically significant.

Similar campaigns result in similar press coverage. Gender differences in the issues emphasized in newspaper coverage are small and usually not statistically significant. As the focus on issues specific to one gender is small, so is coverage of those issues. Additionally, while party plays an enormous role in how voters view candidates, gender differences are once again small (often to the benefit of women) and not statistically significant.

Winning Elections

When women run for Congress, they do just as well as men.

This is not a new conclusion. In her 1996 book, A Women’s Place is in the House: Campaigning for Congress in the Feminist Era, Barbara Burrell did not find that women are penalized for their gender by voters at the polls. Hayes and Lawless arrived at the same conclusion in their more recent study of the 2010 and 2014 elections.

Source: Danny Hayes and Jennifer L. Lawless, Women on the Run, p. 107.

The graph above presents the relative impact of gender and party on the probability of a the success of the Democratic U.S. House candidate after controlling for a variety of factors. Gender has almost no impact, as indicated by the small coefficients. The overlap of the confidence intervals, shown by the lines around the dots, with zero indicates that candidate gender has no statistically significant impact on the outcome.

Other research not reviewed here also indicates that women do just as well in raising campaign funds – no real surprise as women dominated the world of fundraising at the national Democratic Party even 30 years ago in the late 1980s. They also don’t need to be more qualified – women do just as well as men with equivalent qualifications.

So why do women hold substantially fewer elected offices than men in the U.S.? That’s the subject of tomorrow’s post.

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