Monthly Archives: June 2017

2018 Elections

The Jealous Campaign Responds

Today, I am pleased to present a response to yesterday’s post by Adam Pagnucco from Travis Tazelaar, the campaign manager for Ben Jealous’ Campaign for Governor and the former Executive Director of the Maryland Democratic Party.

I was a little disappointed today to read Adam Pagnucco’s Post on the Seventh State, “Is Jealous Claiming Credit for the Achievements of Others?” The post claims that Ben Jealous was not a “key player” in passing “the DREAM Act, marriage equality, death penalty repeal, voting reform and gun safety.” Adam’s post gives credit where credit is most certainly due: to the long list of legislators and other elected officials who fought, and passed legislation. Adam’s characterization that Ben Jealous is either taking credit for the achievement of others, or that he didn’t play a big enough role worth talking about, is false and misleading to Seventh State’s readers and to the progressive community.

Many people played a role in all the progressive victories outlined in the post, including Ben Jealous. I’d point special attention to former Governor Martin O’Malley, whose role in all these victories is unequivocal, who said of Ben Jealous in the Baltimore Sun:

Maryland is a better state — and ours is a more perfect union — because of Ben Jealous and his commitment to justice, equality, and the dignity of every child’s home… Here in Maryland, he was an indispensable part of repealing the death penalty, passing the Maryland Dream Act, ensuring civil marriage equality and expanding access to voting.

The Sun has also written:

The effort to end capital punishment in America epitomizes Mr. Jealous’ ability to combine on-the-ground organizing with strategic thinking. A year ago, the effort to ban the death penalty in Maryland appeared out of steam. Gov. Martin O’Malley‘s passionate advocacy on the issue had failed to sway the state Senate, and all indications were that Mr. O’Malley would not put the issue on his agenda again. Then he met with Mr. Jealous, who assured the governor he could provide vote counts showing majority support for a repeal in both chambers of the legislature. He did, and a month later, Mr. O’Malley stood by Mr. Jealous’ side to announce he would make another all-out push for a repeal. This time, he would succeed.

As the campaign manager for the DREAM Act referendum in 2012, I can express to you unequivocally Ben Jealous’ assistance in winning that campaign too. Were many others involved? Absolutely. Would he claim sole credit? Never. Nor has he tried to do so.

I could walk through the other victories too. I could go point, counterpoint as to what he did, when he did it, and who else was involved. I could pull more quotes from people on the ground thanking Ben Jealous for bringing the NAACP into the Maryland fights when he was President and CEO. But our energy right now shouldn’t be pointed inward, progressives on progressives, in the manner in which Adam is attempting. What Ben Jealous’ message is about, and is clearly written in the email referenced in Adam’s post, is about Maryland coming together. Adam is correct when he says the operative word here is “we.” WE should be coming together as progressives to do big things in this state again, we should be focused on what we can do for the next generation, not tearing down fellow progressives with misleading arguments about the past, especially when he’s clearly going to support another potential candidate.

Adam asks at the end of the post: “Here’s a question for the veterans of all these progressive wins: how do you feel about that?” As a veteran involved in many of these fights myself, especially once they reach the ballot, I can tell you that I’ve always been grateful to have Ben Jealous right there on the front lines with so many of us, and it’s one reason I’m enthusiastically running his campaign now. I would challenge Adam to discard divisive rhetoric and replace it with words affirming our progressive conviction for a brighter future in Maryland, especially when we all work together.

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Adam Pagnucco

Is Jealous Claiming Credit for the Achievements of Others?

By Adam Pagnucco.

Former NAACP President and CEO Ben Jealous is running for Governor on a progressive message.  That’s a good thing for both the Democratic Party and the state.  But part of his message appears to be a claim that he was a big player in progressive achievements that were actually accomplished by others.  That’s a problem.

In a blast email dated May 31 and titled “Unlocking the American Dream,” Jealous recites his history as a community organizer, his ties to the City of Baltimore and his parents’ efforts to desegregate the city’s schools and downtown business district.  Jealous has a compelling story that deserves respect and consideration, especially by progressives.

After discussing his parents’ civil rights activism, he wrote this.

It was that tradition of fighting for a better life for your neighbors and yourself that motivated this campaign.

In 2012, Maryland had a bounty of civil rights ambitions; we were going to pass the DREAM Act, abolish the death penalty, pass marriage equality, expand voting rights and pass sensible gun safety reform. It was quite the undertaking, but that didn’t stop Maryland.

We went for it, and we won all of them. Because we know our individual movements are stronger together.

That’s the spirit this state needs. A spirit to make our existing movements stronger by combining efforts, to defend our communities, our healthcare, our environment, our working families, students, and seniors.

The operative pronoun here is “we.”  Readers of this email might think that Jealous was a key player in passing the DREAM Act, marriage equality, death penalty repeal, voting reform and gun safety.  But he wasn’t.  Jealous was head of the national NAACP at the time.  He was not a leader in state politics.  In fact, other than residency and family history, Jealous has few ties to politics and government in Maryland.

Many, many people worked together to accomplish the progressive victories listed in this email.  Most of these wins took years to get done.  Elected leaders who worked hard on these issues include former Senator and now Congressman Jamie Raskin (marriage equality and the death penalty), former Senator and now Attorney General Brian Frosh (guns), Senators Victor Ramirez and Paul Pinsky (the DREAM Act), Senator Joan Carter Conway (voting rights), Delegate Kathleen Dumais (guns and the death penalty), Delegate Luke Clippinger (marriage equality and guns), Delegates Maggie McIntosh, Anne Kaiser, Kumar Barve and former Delegate Keiffer Mitchell (marriage equality), Delegate Sheila Hixson (the DREAM Act and voting rights), former Senator Lisa Gladden and Delegate Sandy Rosenberg (the death penalty) and former Governor Martin O’Malley, Speaker Mike Busch and Senate President Mike Miller (all of the above).  Lots of others in elected office and in progressive advocacy groups played critical roles.  One key leader on many of these issues, Senator Rich Madaleno (D-18), is planning on running for Governor.  (Disclosure: if Madaleno declares, your author will support him.)  None of these people did it alone.  Politics is a team sport, as everyone who did the nuts-and-bolts work on all of these issues knows.

Jealous could have written, “Progressives in Maryland passed the DREAM ACT, marriage equality and gun safety.  They did the right thing and I applaud them.  Our campaign is about returning our state to a progressive path.  Join us.”  But he didn’t.

Here’s a question for the veterans of all these progressive wins: how do you feel about that?

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Seventh State

Apology for Technical Problem

Dear Readers:

Today, I have been working to fix a problem with the automatic posting of blog posts to Seventh State’s Facebook and Twitter feeds. Somehow, this resulted in bombarding your email inboxes with lots of old posts if you’re signed up to receive them.

My apologies for the annoying intrusion. I hope it will stop soon.

David

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Adam Pagnucco, Facebook, Larry Hogan

Hogan Abuses Constituents on Facebook

By Adam Pagnucco.

Evidently frustrated by having his message eclipsed by the stunning behavior of President Donald Trump, thin-skinned Governor Larry Hogan is now lashing out at constituents on Facebook.

Hogan, who has blocked constituents from his Facebook page in the past, put up a post on redistricting on June 3.  The post linked to an article blasting General Assembly Democrats on a website run by right-wing radio host Laura Ingraham.  But some folks weren’t buying what Hogan was selling and that set the Governor off.

One person posted – politely – on President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate treaty.

Hogan accused her of “spouting off.”

Hogan wasn’t done, saying, “You obviously have no idea what you are talking about” and referring to her comments as an “off topic, incorrect rant.”

Another constituent expressed support for the General Assembly’s bill providing for multi-state redistricting, which Hogan vetoed.  Hogan said she was part of a “tiny minority” and encouraged her to “stop liking our page.”

And that wasn’t enough.  Hogan came back for more even as outraged constituents pushed back.

When another constituent asked about the Paris climate treaty, Hogan responded, “You are not only off topic but ill informed.”

When asked about the climate treaty again, Hogan said, “Yes. We are leading the nation on this subject. Pay attention.”

Facebook can be an unruly environment for political discussion.  Constituents are real, live people and don’t always restrict their remarks to the topics favored by politicians.  Elected officials and candidates have a right to ban racist, anti-Semitic, bigoted, sexist, profane or libelous commentary from their pages.  But none of the above comments fall into those categories.  None of them warrant the rude responses written under the Governor’s name.

Hogan owes these folks an apology.

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kensington

Rodriguez Ousted, Crimmins and Bartram Elected in Tight Race

Conor Crimmins
Darin Bartram

From a trusted correspondent in Kensington:

Kensington voters last night ousted a Town Council incumbent while reelecting another in a nonpartisan election that drew a robust turnout, at least by recent local standards.

The leading vote-getter in the field of three candidates was Conor D. Crimmins, a newcomer to Town politics who polled 233 votes. Trailing Crimmins, who moved to Kensington just three years ago, was Darin R. Bartram, a two-term Council member, who won 210 votes.

Tom Rodriguez

The losing candidate, Tom H. Rodriguez, received 207 votes — confirming expectations that the outcome would be close. Observers figured that at least 200 votes would be necessary to win election, given the intensity of the campaign that had preceded the voting.

In all, 358 paper ballots were marked in the election that spanned three hours and even produced short lines of waiting voters at Town Hall.

In Kensington’s most recent contested Town election, in 2015, 244 votes were cast. Rodriguez and Bartram were elected then, with 158 and 157 votes, respectively. Both men are registered Republicans.

Crimmins, chief operating officer at Spider Strategies, a technology and consulting firm in Washington, had stumped vigorously for votes, spending weeks going door-to-door across the town of 2,300 people. He maintained that the Town government should move more swiftly to address such issues as traffic congestion, parking restrictions, and the appearance of Kensington’s commercial district.

Crimmins, a registered Democrat, also pledged courtesy and respect in dealings with townspeople, some of whom have grumbled that Council members can be prickly in responding to complaints and suggestions.

Bartram, a partner at Baker Hostetler who works on the conservative side in environmental and constitutional law, advocated status quo in Town governance. He endorsed Rodriguez’s reelection bid, for example. And speaking at a candidates’ forum two weeks before the election, Bartram praised “the very good dynamic” on Town Council, the four members of which serve staggered two-years terms. Kensington also elects a mayor to two-year terms. The Town’s day-to-day affairs are run by a town manager and an assistant town manager.

Rodriguez, who is a project director for Luntz Global, a research firm run by Republican pollster Frank Luntz, conducted an extensive door-to-door campaign. He emphasized his role in chairing the Town’s Greenscape Committee, which has overseen the recent installation of a fountain and brick walkway at a park across from Kensington’s post office.

Rodriguez also was host at a picnic for Townspeople two days before the voting.

In some ways, the election was as much social event as political exercise. During the hours of voting, townspeople mingled outside of Town Hall, chatting with each other, with the candidates, and with other elected officials, who included state delegates and former and incumbent Kensington mayors.

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2018 Elections

Maryland Democrats’ White Problem

In the above table, I’ve collected exit polls from past presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections in Maryland. If exit polls were unavailable, I used pre-election surveys.

Mac Mathias was the last Republican to win a U.S. Senate race in Maryland in 1980. No Republican presidential candidate has carried Maryland since George H.W. Bush in 1988. On the other hand, Republicans managed to win the governor’s mansion twice since 2000. Bob Ehrlich’s 2002 victory broke the long Democratic streak since Spiro Agnew’s fluke election in 1966.

No Democratic winner fell below the 39% gained by Ben Cardin in his successful 2012 reelection bid. In both gubernatorial elections won by Republicans, the Democratic share of the white vote fell dramatically. In 2002, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend won an estimated 34% of white voters.

Anthony Brown performed even more poorly with just 31% in 2014. Towards the close of the 2014 campaign, I estimated that Brown realistically needed a maximum of 37% white support in order to capture the governor’s office.

Lower levels of white support result from two factors: defection and abstention. Put another way, some normally Democratic white voters switched to the Republican in these races. Additionally, others either didn’t vote or sat out these contests.

Since the 2016 election, much of the discussion has focused on the need to increase Democratic turnout, especially non-white turnout and especially in midterm elections. For Democrats, these are good goals, if only because the share of the white vote needed to win declines if more non-white, primarily African American but also Asian and Latino, Democrats vote.

At the same time, the 2016 elections also show the limits of relying solely on non-white voters. Turnout nationally among Latinos and Asians rose and by more than white turnout. African-American turnout declined from the historic levels seen when Barack Obama was at the top of the ticket.

Nevertheless, the task of winning the governor’s mansion would be a lot easier if Democrats can win back a higher share of the white vote by preventing both defections and abstentions. Even with higher minority turnout, it would have been hard for Anthony Brown to win without increasing white support.

The implications extend beyond gubernatorial elections. The retention of not so much control but dominant majorities in the General Assembly depends on receiving enough white voters. Losing more white votes means, for example, losing Senate seats that are critical to invoking cloture for legislation favored by Democrats and their ability to override Gov. Hogan’s veto.

I’m not saying that Democrats should take minority voters for granted. No political party should ever take anyone’s vote for granted, and I expect Hogan to look to increase his non-white support in 2018. But Maryland Democrats cannot repeat their 2014 hemorrhage in white support if they want to defeat Hogan.

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Anne Arundel

Democratic Gubernatorial Straw Poll Results

State Sen. Rich Madaleno (D 18) emerged as the surprise winner of the online poll held by the Anne Arundel Democratic Central Committee, coming in first support from about one-third of people who clicked for their choice.

It probably didn’t hurt that Madaleno recently attended the District 30 Democratic Club meeting, as well as the Anne Arundel Central Committee Dinner. Other candidates at the dinner included Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, former AG Doug Gansler, former NAACP President Ben Jealous, and Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz.

U.S. Rep. John Delaney (D 6) won the Western Maryland straw poll held in April, with 35% of the 166 participants–less of a shock as Delaney represents this area in Congress. In any case, based on these totally non-random, non-representative samples, it appears that even active Democrats are quite divided, which should make for an interesting primary season.

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Adam Pagnucco, Immigration, Larry Hogan

Hogan Demagogues on Immigration to Raise Money

By Adam Pagnucco.

Governor Larry Hogan is now sending out fundraising letters for his reelection campaign.  Much of the language is consistent with what we have heard from the Governor before and would be standard for many Republican candidates.  But the solicitation ends with a fear-mongering assault on immigration that is perfectly consistent with the GOP in the Era of Trump.

Hogan’s four-page letter starts as you might expect.  He discusses “failed liberal leadership” and people being “sick and tired of politics as usual.”  He refers to himself as “simply a small businessman, concerned citizen and lifelong Marylander who was fed up with the never ending tax and fee increases and status quo politicians in Annapolis.”  He then goes on to describe how he changed all that by passing three budgets with no tax increases, reducing or eliminating fees and getting rid of “job-killing regulations.”  Amusingly, he claims, “I was not a politician when I ran for Governor in 2014… and I am not one now.”  So far, this is unremarkable.  This has been the Governor’s message for years and we would expect this to show up in a fundraising letter.

But then he closed with this.

We have to fight back.  Maryland’s future depends on it.

With so much at stake, I am reaching out to committed commonsense conservatives from across the state.  You are one [sic] our state’s most loyal activists and I could really use your help.  Will you please do me the honor of joining my team to help keep moving Maryland forward and help me push back against a far left agenda and the worst instincts of an increasingly liberal and out-of-touch State Legislature?

How out of touch are they?  Instead of focusing on positive change and the safety of our citizens, they have instead been focusing their efforts on trying to make our state a safe haven for criminals here illegally.

Let me be very clear: we cannot allow Maryland to become a sanctuary state.  Our local law enforcement should be doing more – not less – to make sure criminals here illegally are turned over to federal immigration officials.  The rule of law must come first and we will do whatever we can to stop any so-called “sanctuary bills” that would limit how jails and police could assist federal authorities.

Astonishingly, this letter was sent to a Democrat in Montgomery County.

Hogan is not telling the truth about the Maryland Trust Act, which passed the House of Delegates but not the Senate.  The bill that passed the House would not have prevented jails from turning criminals over to ICE and it would not have forbidden counties from participating in the federal government’s 287(g) program to identify criminals wanted by ICE.  It would have prevented jails from holding inmates past their sentence dates without a court warrant, which simply restates the policy followed by Hogan’s own state-run jail in Baltimore.  It would also have prevented police from questioning people on the street about their immigration status, something that happened in Bel Air just a few months ago.  Does Hogan favor detaining people past their sentence dates and having local police randomly check residents’ immigration status without cause?  Perhaps he does since he inaccurately attacks this legislation as a “sanctuary bill.”

The broader point is that Hogan is using immigration demagoguery and fear-mongering to raise money.  That is very different from the image he cultivates in public of being non-partisan, non-ideological and uninterested in divisive social issues.  In this fundraising letter, we see the Real Hogan away from the cameras and the press podium – a politician willing to exploit fear and xenophobia to get reelected.

Our current President would no doubt approve.

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Roger Berliner

Berliner to Announce Run for County Executive

Montgomery County Council President Roger Berliner will be announcing a run for County Executive next week.  Following is his press advisory.

June 1, 2017

Contact: Noah Wasserman

friendsofrogerberliner@gmail.com

Montgomery County Council President Roger Berliner to Launch Campaign for County Executive on Wednesday, June 7

NORTH BETHESDA – Roger Berliner, three-term Democratic Montgomery County Councilmember and current Council President, will be announcing the launch of his 2018 County Executive campaign on Wednesday, June 7 at Owen’s Ordinary at Pike & Rose (11820 Trade Street, North Bethesda).  The kickoff event is scheduled from 7-9 pm.  It is expected that Roger will address his supporters from throughout Montgomery County around 7:45.

On the day of the launch, Roger will release a list of over 150 activists and elected officials whose support demonstrates the wide breadth of support that the campaign will enjoy from across Montgomery County.

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Paid for and Authorized by Friends of Roger Berliner; Barbara Goldberg Goldman, Treasurer

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