Monthly Archives: March 2015

Jamie Raskin, US House

Jamie Raskin for Congress?

Jamieraskin

Sen. Jamie Raskin (D-20) is widely considered a lock to enter the race for Maryland’s Eighth Congressional District.

Getting Elected in District 20

Jamie Raskin was first elected to the Senate in 2006 in an impressive defeat of longtime incumbent, Sen. Ida Ruben. Though Raskin was a first-time candidate, he beat Ruben by 2-1 thanks to a strong campaign and grassroots organization.

It also didn’t hurt that Chris Van Hollen notably did not endorse Sen. Ida Ruben, who had not supported him in his original congressional bid in 2002. Since the 2006 Democratic primary, Raskin has been untouchable in this district.

Two of Raskin’s previous campaign managers, David Moon and Will Smith, have now joined him on the House side. Raskin remains very popular and a solid fit for this district, correctly perceived as the most progressive in Maryland.

In the Senate

Jamie made the transition from law professor at American University to politician in the Maryland Senate more smoothly than some likely expected. He worked well with his colleagues and  became a leader on the Judicial Proceedings Committee.

Currently, Sen. Raskin heads the Executive Nominations Committee. He is also serves as Majority Whip and is a past Chair of the Montgomery County Senate Delegation.

His work has unsurprisingly focused more on issues related to his committee. Sen. Raskin was a robust supporter of marriage equality. In this session, he is focusing much of his efforts on campaign finance trying to make the system more transparent in the wake of the disastrous Citizens United decision, which opened the floodgates of soft money into American politics.

One of the more loquacious members of the Senate, he is excellent at arguing for his point of view and parrying his opponents. Jamie’s passionate progressive views have also not prevented him in working with others to move forward even if the product is less than ideal from his perspective.

All of these issues and skills would transfer well to Congress, even if he would likely have to get used to operating as part of the minority instead of the majority. There is a reason that lawyers are not lacking in Congress or Washington even if Washingtonians can tell lawyer jokes with the best of them.

Campaign and Competition

Jamie cannot self finance but he is well-positioned to raise a lot of money. His profile extends beyond the local level–and not just because his spouse, Sarah Bloom Raskin, has served on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and is now Deputy Secretary of the Treasury.

Moreover, many of Jamie’s originals supporters are still very active in politics and eager to support his congressional bid. As he showed in 2006, he is quite capable of putting together an organized grassroots campaign.

District 20 has one of the richest pockets of Democratic voters in the State, though fewer than District 16 and similar in number to neighboring District 18. Raskin’s district would serve as a fine base for a congressional run.

Overlap with Other Candidates

Jamie Raskin will be a top-tier candidate. He shares a similar political profile with Rich Madaleno. Both are white males and strong progressives based in neighboring southern Montgomery County districts. They’ve worked closely together in the Senate on many issues. Either would benefit if the other does not run.

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Montgomery County, US Senate

John Delaney for Senate?

delaney

John Delaney is a two-term U.S. representative who founded two publicly traded companies focused on financial services. He may well be the only candidate able to point to significant private sector experience. While he not always the most charismatic, he’s very, very smart and is well-versed in economic policy in a way that is rare for an elected official.

Money, Money, Money

John Delaney is worth a cool nine figures and over the last few years has spent around $5 million dollars of his own funds on his U.S. House bids. Always nice to be able to drop more than most will see in a lifetime like it’s buying a nice meal out.

In contrast, Chris Van Hollen and all other candidates will need to spend months locked in windowless rooms begging lobbyists and national donors for $2,600 checks in hopes of funding broadcast media buys in the extremely expensive DC and Baltimore Markets.

For the record, DC Broadcast at saturation costs $450,000 per week. Delaney can put $10 million, $15 million, perhaps even $20 million dollars in his campaign account in five minutes,  freeing up his time for extensive retail politicking in far flung corners of the state.

Moreover, his money will buy a vast army of top tier hired guns and mercenary political consultants. As his campaign against Sen. Rob Garagiola showed in 2012, John Delaney knows how to hire good people and run an effective campaign.

John Delaney will bombard a microtargeted universe of likely Democratic Primary voters with glossy mailers and online advertisements. His (paid) canvassers will be at their doors daily. And, months before anyone else can afford to do so, his TV ads will flood living rooms from Silver Spring to Severna Park.

And frankly, that stuff works.

But Money Can’t Buy You Love

Chris Van Hollen will likely retain the loyalties of the northwestern Montgomery County residents he represented prior to redistricting (and are now) in the Sixth District–a real problem for Delaney as he  needs those voters.

Moreover, John Delaney doesn’t have CVH’s massive base of volunteers and true believers. Donna Edwards also has the potential to attract a lot of ground support. These canvassers tend to be more effective than those in it for the (small) paycheck because they actually believe in the candidate.

Delaney’s opponents may argue that he made a fortune as a predatory lender. Moreover, ss dozens of other self funders have taught us, all the money in the world can’t buy enough advertising to make voters change their minds if they decide they don’t like you or just prefer someone else even if you’re a good candidate.

Labor

Labor Unions across the board united to oppose John Delaney’s first congressional bid. He’s since returned the animosity through numerous votes on infrastructure issues, which has angered the more traditionalist factions like the building trades and the AFL-CIO. He has also cast pro-Wall Street votes on the Financial Services committee, which has angered the more movement progressive type unions like SEIU. It can be expected that they will put whatever clout they have into denying him a promotion to the Senate.

Overlap and Niche

As a white Montgomery County congressmen, Delaney and CVH share the most base overlap.

Delaney will also be the most centrist candidate. He has repeatedly touted his moderate proposals and ability to work with Republicans–an approach that looks better in general than primary elections. To the extent a centrist bloc exists in a statewide Maryland Democratic Primary, he largely has that lane to himself. This may give Delaney room for expansion in the Baltimore suburbs, the Eastern Shore, and Southern Maryland.

Delaney also shares several political advisors such as pollster Fred Yang, media firm SKDKnickerbocker and Chief of Staff Justin Schall who work with other potential candidates. They will have to pick a side when their clients challenge each other for higher office.

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US House

Madaleno or Matthews for Congress?

madalenovic

Madaleno on the Night Maryland Became
the First State to Vote Yes on Marriage Equality

Sen. Richard Madaleno, Jr.

Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-18) has been flagged by Bill Turque in The Washington Post as a potential contender for the Eighth District seat:

Madaleno, 49, a onetime aide to former Montgomery County executive Doug Duncan, is vice chairman of the Maryland Senate’s budget and taxation committee and the body’s only openly gay member. He was a key player in passage of the state’s same-sex marriage and transgender rights laws.

If Rich runs, his campaign would likely gain very serious support from the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, which has backed his past state legislative campaigns. Madaleno first ran for the House in 2002, becoming the first openly gay man ever elected to that body.

When Rich ran for the Senate in 2006, he was unopposed in the Democratic primary and the general election. While he is better publicly known for his work on LGBT rights, Madaleno is recognized around Annapolis as one of the top budget experts, serving as the floor leader on virtually every major revenue initiative. Additionally, he played a central role in the passage of the Dream Act.

Rich has been consulting family and friends this weekend about whether he should jump in the race. His state legislative district is entirely located within the Eighth District. Moreover, along with neighboring D20, represented by almost certain candidate Sen. Jamie Raskin, D18 holds more Democratic primary voters than any other located within this congressional district. (Note: D16 has even more, though a snippet of D16 is outside the Eighth.)

Kathleen Matthews

Kathleen Matthews has expressed strong interest in the race and seems set on a bid though she has not spoken directly to the press. Though Matthews does not hold political office, she’s not a stranger to politics or the community:

Matthews, who lives in Chevy Chase, left WJLA in 2006 after 24 years. At Marriott, she became a rare high-level Democrat in a corporation where executive chairman Bill Marriott and family members are major GOP contributors. Matthews is credited with making the company more active on social media. She has served on the boards of several charitable organizations.

Her job at Marriott was very high level–Chief of Global Communications and Public Affairs. Moreover, her job likely provides her with a network of potential donors in the business community unmatched by other potential candidates, including GOP donors who would be unlikely to give to other Democrats.

The substantive nature of her work at Marriott would allow her to talk about how she was able to promote liberal goals even in a conservative corporation–not a bad skill for someone to have in today’s House of Representatives:

Matthews, who has long talked about running for office, advocated Marriott’s move toward more progressive policies, including sustainability and LGBT friendliness. She pushed the company to open a hotel in Haiti after the earthquake — Bill Clinton attended the opening last month.

She would be an interesting candidate in a field otherwise likely to be dominated by elected officials. On the other hand, this district is replete with people who work in government-related jobs. Rather than focus primarily on her business experience, I suspect she’ll use it to tout issue positions. She certainly will not lack the communication skills, though it will be a change for the former reporter to have to answer the questions.

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Kumar Barve, US House

Del. Kumar Barve to Announce for the Eighth

Kumar

Delegate Kumar Barve (D-17) intends to announce very soon that he will run for the Eighth Congressional District made vacant by Chris Van Hollen’s senatorial bid.

Career

Though born in New York, Barve went to Paint Branch High School. Barve was first elected to the House of Delegates in 1990, so he is now in his seventh state (pun unintended) legislative term. Currently, he chairs the Environment and Transportation Committee. Barve has also served previously as Majority Leader.

Pioneer

While it may seem ordinary now, it was a big deal when Del. Barve was first elected in 1990, as he was the first Indian American to win election to any state legislature in the country. At the time, he was also the only nonwhite member of the Montgomery delegation.

Kumar has supported efforts of other South Asians to win election, including Del. Aruna Miller (D-15) and former Del. Sam Arora (D-19). Miller and Barve have remained close. But no one was more peeved when Arora reneged on his commitment to back marriage equality–a bill that Barve sponsored and supported strongly.

Barve has the potential to receive substantial ethnic backing from Indian Americans not just locally but nationally. Currently, Rep. Ami Bera (D-CA) is the sole South Asian American in Congress. Barve provides a strong opportunity to increase their number. He would also be the first Hindu Indian American in Congress and only its second Hindu member.

Territory

The 17th Legislative District includes all of the Cities of Rockville and Gaithersburg. The bad news for Barve is that the Eighth Congressional District includes Rockville but not Gaithersburg so about one-half of his legislative district is outside the congressional district that he seeks to represent.

The good news for him is that Rockville voters participate in primaries at a much a higher rate than in Gaithersburg, so he is hemorrhaging much less support due to district boundaries than appears at first glance. Until 2014, Kumar also represented much smaller Garrett Park, which is also in the Eighth.

Nonetheless, District 17 casts fewer Democratic primary votes than in either District 18 or District 20. Assuming that either or both Sens. Rich Madaleno (D-18) or Jamie Raskin (D-20) run, they each start out already representing at least 50% more primary voters. It will take more effort–and more money–for Barve to introduce himself to new voters.

Overlap and Challenges

I don’t see real overlap between Del. Barve and other candidates. He’ll probably start out with more experience in office than any of them. But they will all essentially share rather similar principles and struggle to accentuate differences.

Kumar’s real challenges are to raise money and to run a disciplined campaign. As for all candidates, he will need to spend far more time raising money than any sane person desires. And he will have to make sure it is spent very wisely.

Another key question is whether he can attract volunteers on the same scale and organize them as well as candidates who made their first bid for office more recently, and thus may have more of their original core supporters around to help them.

It will be interesting to see how much traction Del. Barve gains in the race. But I don’t think he will get lost in the shuffle. He is outspoken and certainly as ambitious as anyone seeking this seat.

Final Question

Will Del. Barve be tempted to switch to the Sixth District if Rep. Delaney jumps into the Senate race? After all, he lives in the Sixth even if his legislative district falls equally in the Eighth.

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Heather Mizeur, US House

Mizeur Already Looks In for Senate

MizeurforSen

From Facebook

Former Del. Heather Mizeur could just be toying with the idea. But the smart money is on that she will enter the race for Senate.

Heather is a skilled campaigner and enjoys it. Her first campaign for delegate in 2006 was the best I saw that year. Beyond being media savvy, Heather knew exactly what she had to do to win–and did it. Despite losing her long-shot bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2014, she raised her profile and established herself in the eyes of many voters as a progressive leader.

The clear niche that Heather would try to fill is that she is the new Barbara Mikulski–the progressive woman we want in the Senate. Voters liked Mikulski so that’s not a bad place to be in a race in which voters with many ideologically similar candidates.

Insider/Outsider

In the gubernatorial primary, Heather did a good job of positioning herself as a different sort of politician who didn’t want to bicker and simultaneously represented the progressive, left-wing of the Democratic Party. In short, she ran as an outsider running against the establishment candidates. The chance for Heather to be the first LGBT governor only enhanced that profile.

However, Heather is in many ways a consummate political insider. First, she served on the Democratic National Committee. The DNC is about an insider as it gets. Second, she was a two-term member of the House of Delegates. Third, she worked as Sen. John Kerry’s Director of Domestic Policy and Rep. Joseph Kennedy’s Legislative Director. Finally, her professional life is as a federal lobbyist.

Not exactly an outsider resume and I don’t think her opponents will let her get away easily as casting herself as such. At the same time, Mizeur’s benefits from insider status will go only so far. Exactly one of her colleagues in the General Assembly endorsed her gubernatorial bid–and none from her own district. She ticked off royally many influential players with her opinion piece in the Sun just before the general election.

Fundraising

Interestingly, former Del. Heather Mizeur’s last full state campaign finance report showed around $194,000 in the account even though she lagged far behind Doug Gansler and Anthony Brown in spending. The only subsequent report was an affidavit attesting that she neither raised nor spent more than $1000. That leaves her with much more money than, say, Rep. Donna Edwards.

While her bank balance is a nice start, it is well below that of other candidates already or likely to enter the race. (UPDATE: Several readers have explained to me that she cannot use the money in her state account for the federal race, so she starts with nothing.) She would not be able to match the fundraising of people like Rep. Chris Van Hollen and Rep. John Delaney. Nonetheless, she might gain significant backing from LGBT money and the Victory Fund.

While I am sure Heather greatly expanded her network in her 2014 run, it may be hard to get some people to open their wallets so quickly again. Heather beat expectations in 2014 but still ended up in third place with 22% of the vote. She would need to prove me wrong on fundraising to be competitive.

Expanding Her Support

Sitting here in front of my computer, I’m having trouble seeing how Mizeur expands her support base. Would voters who cast ballots for Brown or Gansler who would turn to Mizeur in a Senate race? Do even white voters who supported Brown partly due to O’Malley’s support jump to Heather? Or do they go to someone else?

Additionally, the Democratic primary electorate in 2016 may be somewhat less progressive than in 2014. The lower the participation, the more left-wing the voters usually are in a Democratic primary. Fewer people usually participate in off-year rather than presidential elections.

An even bigger problem for Mizeur will be that other candidates will lay claim to the progressive mantle. In particular, Rep. Donna Edwards may gain their affection, as she won election to the U.S. House as a progressive outsider. Progressives may also be comfortable with a variety of other candidates.

Conclusion

Heather is an excellent campaigner so I thought she would do better than expected in 2014. I am less confident that would be true in the 2016 Senate race. Still, she is adroit and knows how to skillfully take advantage of opportunities. While I see her more as an underdog than top-tier candidate, Heather Mizeur will have her fervent supporters and could surprise.

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Chris Van Hollen, Seventh State, US Senate

I’m Supporting Van Hollen for Senate

Dear Readers:

Yesterday, someone emailed me and asked if I’d be willing to lend my name to Rep. Chris Van Hollen’s U.S. Senate campaign. If you read my evaluation of Chris, you won’t be surprised that I replied yes. He has been my representative for many years and I have had the opportunity to see him and his office up close and afar for some time. While the field is still shaking out, I am not just comfortable but excited to support Chris Van Hollen for Senate.

That doesn’t mean that there aren’t other good candidates out there and I imagine many of you, in both parties, will be supporting someone else. That’s what makes democracy great. Seventh State will still cover the Senate race and I plan to call them as I see them. I have not shied away from writing about problems in other campaigns that I support and I won’t pretend that someone is winning when they’re losing.

At the same time, I thought you should know. Thanks for reading.

David

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Congress, Roger Berliner

Berliner Not Running for the Eighth

berliner

Roger would have been a strong and interesting candidate. Here is Montgomery County Councilmember Roger Berliner’s email to supporters:

Congressman Van Hollen’s decision to run for the Senate, a decision that I wholeheartedly support, immediately set off widespread speculation as to who would run for his seat in Congress.  I was among those reported to be on the list of possible candidates.  As one of my supporters, I wanted to share with you why, as the Washington Post reported yesterday, I harbor no such ambition.

Not so long ago, at a Council of Governments luncheon, Bruce Katz from the Brookings Institute gave a keynote address in which he posited that the traditional government pyramid, with the federal government on top and local government on the bottom, has now inverted.   He argued that local government is in the strongest position to advance the public interest most directly and effectively.   

My own experience has reinforced the belief that those of us privileged to serve you at the local level have an extraordinary opportunity to improve the quality of life for all of us.  I have served at every level of government – from City Hall, to Capitol Hill, the Executive Branch, state legislature, and county government.   That experience has left not a shred of doubt in my mind that if you want to bring about big changes, take care of the small things that make a real difference in your lives, and literally shape a community, local government is a great place to serve.

And it is certainly where I want to continue to serve you for the next four years.   We have work to do — work to improve transportation, better align growth and infrastructure, provide job skills to our workforce, build a dynamic and innovative government culture, support our non-profit community, do what we can to make our county a “community for a lifetime”, close the achievement gap and build more schools, reinvigorate our local economy ….and the list goes on.

So, I will be busy working on these items and more over the course of the next four years ….not running for Congress.   That’s what you were kind enough to support me doing, and that’s what I love doing!

With warm regards,

Roger

 

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US Senate

Senator Sarbanes?

With the retirement of Sen. Barbara Mikulski, scores of talented and ambitious politicians are weighing a bid for her seat. Here we take a look at one of them: Rep. John Sarbanes.

Scion

John Sarbanes is a telegenic, fairly young rank and file representative from the Baltimore area.

John Sarbanes is also the son of Paul Sarbanes, a political giant who held one of Maryland’s Senate Seats until 2006. (His brother Michael also ran for Baltimore City Council President in 2007.) As such he comes with instant name ID and a brand to lean on that’s particularly strong among white voters in the Baltimore metropolitan area.

The Sarbanes family is very prominent in the national Greek community, which can be a potent fundraising source, and a very active ethnic community in Maryland politics. It also doesn’t hurt that his father was from Salisbury on the Eastern Shore.

The only wrinkle in the ointment here is that Maryland has rejected some scions for higher office. Beyond Kathleen Kennedy-Townsend and Mark Shriver in 2002, Democratic voters more recently did not support Del. Jon Cardin’s bid for attorney general. However, Sarbanes is already a federal official, and these three hardly provide evidence of a definitive trend.

A Statewide District 

Sarbanes currently represents Maryland’s Third Congressional District, which due to it’s gerrymandered nature takes in parts of Montgomery, Anne Arundel, Howard and Baltimore Counties as well as pieces of Baltimore City. As such, Sarbanes has had the opportunity to be a presence across central Maryland.

He will however likely be strongest among white voters in the city of Baltimore and its suburbs. O’Malley’s decision to forego leaves Sarbanes poised to be the only white Democratic candidate from the Baltimore area–unless Dutch Ruppersberger dives into the race.

Fundraising

Sarbanes has often made campaign finance reform a key issue in his campaigns. In 2012, he forced himself to collect one thousand checks of $100 or less from first time donors within his district before he could unlock a $500,000 war chest of previously raised funds. His website says he expanded this program in 2014.

Such a model would not be viable in a statewide effort where budgets are expected to reach eight figures. How he balances his commitment to campaign finance reform with the realities of a bid for higher office will be an interesting dynamic to observe.

Overlap with other Candidates 

Few of the most prominent candidates considering the race would be able to chunk out the Sarbanes base among white voters in metropolitan Baltimore, although Stephanie Rawlings-Blake has historically enjoyed substantive support in the white precincts of Baltimore City.

How he expands beyond the 410 area code will be a quandary for Sarbanes to consider over the next few days.

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Congress, Valerie Ervin

Valerie Ervin Will Be in for the Eighth

valerieervinglogo

UPDATE/Corrections: See bottom of post.

A reliable source tells me that former Montgomery County Councilmember Valerie Ervin will run for Congress from the Eighth District that is being vacated by Chris Van Hollen who is running for Senate. She will be a top-tier candidate.

Valerie won election to the School Board in 2004 prior to winning the District 5 Council seat in 2006–the seat now held by Tom Hucker.A past President and Vice-President of the County Council, she stepped down in the year before her term ended to take a job with the non-profit Center for Working Families.

Policy

Along with Councilmembers Elrich and Navarro, Ervin worked to raise the minimum wage in Montgomery County just before leaving the Council. Active in the PTA before winning election, she has long been especially interested in education issues, such as universal pre-K and closing the achievement gap.

Many Advantages

While in office, Councilmember Ervin had the knack for being well-liked by both labor and business. Her recent working for the Center for Working Families has only burnished her progressive credentials. In short, she has the potential to appeal to a wide range of voters.

The composition of the electorate works in her favor. The Eighth District is 12% African American but black voters will compose a significantly higher share of primary voters. Democratic primary voters are also disproportionately female, and Ervin is so far the only woman in the race.

School Board members run at large, so she may be the only candidate to have ever been on the ballot throughout the Montgomery County portion of the district. Of course, that would not be the case if Councilmember George Leventhal, her former boss and then colleague, also jumped in the race.

Fundraising

Critical to any effort, however, will be raising money for a successful campaign. The kitty in her Maryland campaign account is essentially empty and I could not find a federal committee listed yet. She has not had to raise the kind of dollars needed for a congressional run in past campaigns.

Nonetheless, I think a disciplined person like Valerie could do it. Backing from EMILY’s list would surely help. The national connections she has made through her activism since leaving the Council may also help her financially. Labor could help provide money as volunteers but there is no way to know which way they’ll jump or if they’ll jump together.

Overlap with Other Candidates

Sen. Jamie Raskin (D-20) now represents many of the same people as Valerie once did on the Council. Assuming he runs, they could compete for many of the same voters geographically in that part of the County, which is rich with Democratic voters. It would probably also aid her campaign if she is the only prominent woman and African-American candidate in the race.

UPDATE/Corrections

I have already received some push back on some of my characterizations in this post. The points made by person who responded are well taken, so I thought it important to add them here or balance or correction even as I leave up the original post. First and foremost, someone reminded me (correctly) that Valerie was not beloved by local labor by the time she left the Council.

MCGEO and the Police union especially hated her. Gino Renne at MCGEO even targeted her with an attack website, though he goes off on a lot of people. The police union showed up once to boo her at a hearing and Valerie said that the union chief started making “threats.” Finally, she also had strong conflicts with the School Board and MCEA was not sorry to see her go.

On the other hand, she still has very cordial relations with SEIU–nationally the second-largest union in America. And, as we have seen, sides can change quickly in these races, so past opposition does not always predict future behavior–or the views of national unions.

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Republicans

Bongino’s Provocative New PAC

red-dawn

Republican Dan Bongino, who ran a good race against Democrat John Delaney in the Sixth Congressional District, has started a PAC. The goal isn’t provocative–provide support for more Republicans candidates to widen the playing field–it’s the name:

Battle Ground Resistance PAC.

Has someone watched Red Dawn a few too many times?

Anyway, here is the announcement:

In 2014, I ran for Congress in Maryland in a race that the “experts” and the media, declared “uncompetitive.” Despite the lack of support from the Washington D.C. establishment, thanks to you (the grassroots), and my team’s relentless work ethic, we were within a point of pulling off the biggest congressional upset in recent electoral history. After that night, I pledged never to let another hard-working and principled candidate lose a race because I stood on the sidelines. Let’s help them fight back in this ongoing political battle.

Today, I am announcing the launch of my new political action committee, the Battle Ground Resistance PAC. Through this PAC, we will harness the dedicated efforts of our donors to find and support candidates willing to take the fight to members of both political parties, in the fight for a more prosperous tomorrow.

Interestingly, the last line suggests he wants to direct his fire at Republicans as well as Democrats.

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