Will Jawando is often charged with being a carpet bagger with no ties to the local community. That his campaign doesn’t know how to spell the word “Takoma” in “Takoma Park” certainly doesn’t help combat that impression.
All posts by John Gallagher
Campaign Finance Aggregate Report
Over the next few days, pre primary campaign finance reports will appear on the Maryland Campaign Reporting Information System Websites. Instead of breathlessly hitting refresh, you can simply check out this public, crowd sourced google doc I put together (just like I did in January and April).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OyeuTrFuRlp_4qtqRPw9JSKcW29e6Z-yVjmRXcyWWyM/edit#gid=0
Updated Senate Majority Leader Short List
I’ve gotten a lot of interesting feedback on my post about who might be the next Majority Leader of the State State. Several things have been made clear to me by our very impassioned readers:
The first is that Paul Pinsky is not on Mike Miller’s short list, long list or any other list for this position. Considering what a progressive, reform minded individual he is, I doubt this bothers him very much.
The second is that Rich Madaleno and Catherine Pugh are the clear front runners in the estimation of pretty much everybody. The smart money appears to be on Pugh, but the broad conventional wisdom leans towards Madaleno.
Both would be history making in their own way. As far as I can tell, Catherine Pugh would be the first female Majority Leader, and the first African American to serve in this role since Clarence Blount. Madaleno would be the first LGBT Individual to serve in the role.
Third, If he is passed over the Chairmanship of the Judicial Proceedings Committee, Jamie Raskin may find himself pressing for the Majority Leader post.
Fourth, Roger Manno, Nancy King and Bobby Zirkin may each have an outside shot but they probably aren’t near the top of this list.
Fifth, several legislators facing reelections with varying degrees of competitiveness may have a bank shot at the Majority Leader post – specifically Ron Young, Lisa Gladden and Doug Peters . . . if they survive campaign season.
So, I’ve updated my list and split it into a “long” and “short” version.
Short
- Rich Madaleno (Montgomery County)
- Catherine Pugh (Baltimore City)
Long
- Roger Manno (Montgomery County)
- Nancy King (Montgomery County)
- Lisa Gladden (Baltimore City)
- Ron Young (Frederick County)
- Doug Peters (Prince George’s County)
- Bobby Zirkin (Baltimore County)
- Jamie Raskin (Montgomery County)
However, the most important factor in choosing the Majority Leader may well be who helps their colleagues with their campaigns. While not as high minded as the ability to eloquently defend the Democrats on the floor of the Senate, colleagues and the leadership really appreciate it. The reality is that campaigns cost money.
This handicaps Rich Madaleno who has historically shown little interest in fundraising. He also has a competitive primary where he needs to focus his resources until June 24th.
Lisa Gladden and Doug Peters both have historically been good fundraisers, but both have drawn opponents of substance in the primary to keep them busy. However, if they are victorious, they could certainly start laying the statewide ground work necessary to set themselves up as contenders to be Majority Leader.
Raskin doesn’t like to give campaign dollars that he raises to other campaigns and causes, though he is often generous with his own funds. That scruple undermines his ability to aid colleagues.
Ron Young will need to focus exclusively on his swingy Western Maryland District until November.
Zirkin, Manno and Pugh have the luxury to not have to fight in their home districts. Instead of catching up on Game of Thrones they should replicate the formidable efforts of Rob Garagiola during the 2010 election cycle. Rob spent hundreds of thousands of dollars fighting for leadership priorities around the state and was rewarded.
Am I still nuts? Missing a name? Let me know by dropping me a line directly at johnga.ems@gmail.com.
UPDATE: Pugh wouldn’t be the first female Majority Leader. That distinction is held by Rosalie Abrams. And the last African-American Majority Leader was McFadden in 2003-07. h/t Brian Bailey.
Who is the Next Senate Majority Leader?
Trying to figure out who is the next person to obtain a particular leadership position in any legislature is often a pointless exercise in Kremlinology. However, pointless exercises in Kremlinology are great fun. So here we go.
After the 2010 elections, Senate Majority Leader Ed Kasemeyer was appointed Chairman of the powerful Budget and Taxation Committee. Senate President Mike Miller appointed Montgomery County Senator Rob Garagiola as his replacement. After the 2013 session, Senator Garagiola retired from the legislature. In his place, retiring Howard County Senator Jim Robey served as a placeholder Majority Leader for the 2014 Session.
Following the 2014 Elections, the position will be vacant and Mike Miller will need to appoint a new Majority Leader for the fourth time in four-ish years. I asked a panel of reporters at a forum on the 2014 session who they thought had the best shot at becoming Majority Leader. None had any idea who might be on the short list.
After consulting with my vast network of spies, the following would appear to be the short list –
- Bobby Zirkin (Baltimore County)
- Rich Madelano (Montgomery County)
- Roger Manno (Montgomery County)
- Nancy King (Montgomery County)
- Paul Pinsky (Prince George’s County)
From 2011-2013, Montgomery County held to two leadership positions in the Senate (JPR Chair and Majority Leader). Montgomery County currently holds one (JPR Chair), but that is precarious as Frosh is running for Attorney General. For Maryland’s largest jurisdiction to hold no leadership positions in the upper chamber would be untenable, especially since all of Montgomery’s eight Senate seats are held by Democrats.
Most people I have talked to view Jamie Raskin as the heavy favorite for the JPR Chairmanship. However, if Raskin is not appointed–and considering how far to the left of Mike Miller he is, this does not seem unrealistic to me–it would seem to necessitate the appointment of Manno, Madaleno or King as Majority Leader.
However, Raskin’s main opponent for the JPR Chairmanship seems to be Bobby Zirkin of Baltimore County. If Raskin is appointed Chair, Zirkin could be appointed Majority Leader as a consolation prize. Conversely, if he is passed over for Chair, Raskin could find himself in contention to be Majority Leader
I personally think Manno (who would be entering his second term in the senate) probably lacks the requisite seniority to be Majority Leader. However, stranger things have happened.
Currently, Prince George’s County lacks a Committee Chairman, although Senate President Mike Miller represents a large chunk of the jurisdiction. This makes Pinsky somewhat more attractive.
Who am I missing? Who do you think has the edge? What’s your analysis? Email johnga.ems@gmail.com to let me know.
Party Performance By County
Overview
I have ranked Maryland’s counties and Baltimore City from least to most Democratic based on the average of the margin of victory for the respective Republican and Democratic candidates for President in the 2008 and 2012 election cycles.
Data
Garrett: R+45
Carroll: R+32
Allegheny: R+28
Queen Anne’s:- R+28
Caroline: R+23
Harford: R+18
Cecil: R+17
Washington: R+15
St Mary’s: R+14
Worcester: R+12
Talbot: R+11
Calvert: R+6
Dorchester: R+6
Wicomico: R+5
Frederick: R+2
Anne Arundel: R+1
Kent: EVEN
Somerset: EVEN
Baltimore County: D+16
Howard: D+22
Charles: D+28
Montgomery – D+43
Baltimore City: D+76
Prince George’s : D+79
Analysis
Several things jump out at me about this data. The first is that only six out of 24 jurisdictions lean Democratic. Luckily, those six happen to cast the vast majority of votes in the state. Furthermore, D+16 Baltimore County can no longer considered a swing jurisdiction, as it was for many years. The same is true of Howard and Charles. These three counties are now safely Democratic.
The second thing that jumps out at me is how few counties are relatively evenly split. Only Somerset, Kent, Frederick and Anne Arundel can be considered truly competitive. One could plausibly add Wicomico to that list, as well as perhaps Dorchester and Calvert if one were feeling charitable.
The map also showcases what a remarkable candidate Frank Kratovil was. He won 65% of the vote in Kent County in 2008 (Obama got 49%). That year, he won the most Republican county on the shore (Queen Anne’s) by ten points. He was the State’s Attorney there, so this isn’t entirely surprising. But he also won Caroline County with 52% of the vote. Kratovil eked out a two point win in Cecil, while cruising to a nine point victory in Worcester (and a fifteen point land slide in neighboring Wicomico). In heavily Somerset County, home to a large African-American population, he won by 19 points. Frank did lose Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore Counties. But he managed to carry every county on the Eastern Shore. In contrast, in 2010 Governor O’Malley carried not a single Eastern Shore County.
The numbers in Howard County show what a tough road to victory universally respected State Senator Alan Kittleman has. Conversely, the numbers in Anne Arundel give me hope for Democratic former Sheriff George Johnson’s bid for County Executive. The same is true of Jan Gardner in Frederick County. Republicans had once hoped to build majorities on their strength in these growing counties but it is just not happening.
The Maryland Democratic Party should invest substantive resources into the registration and turnout in Somerset County. The African American percentage is similar to Charles, and there’s no reason that Somerset couldn’t be delivering victories of victory for Team Blue. While in a county of a little over 26,000 this isn’t a game changer, it certainly is one of the view places with severe Democratic under performance in Maryland. It could also make a real difference in the Somerset’s government.
The results in Western Maryland are interesting as well. John Delaney lost Garrett and Allegheny counties by wide margins. He held Roscoe Bartlett to a virtual tie in Washington County. He managed to win Frederick; however, the District only contains the solidly Democratic precincts in Frederick City along with some swingier territory bordering Montgomery County.
In Montgomery, Delaney won by an unsurprisingly solid margin. All in all, Delaney’s $4 million plus investment of personal funds bought him substantial inroads in Western Maryland even if does not quite match the organic support Kratovil enjoyed on the Shore. Of course, Kratovil was a true product of the Shore, whereas Delaney was a does not live in his district. Culture matters in elections.
Lastly, these numbers make me doubt any Republican will be able to win office in Montgomery County within my lifetime.
The Top Thirteen Young Guns of Maryland
1. Sarah Elfreth is Government Affairs Director for the National Aquarium. The smartest, wittiest lobbyist walking the halls of the Lowe House Office Building, she is also one of the youngest young guns on these lists. Whether she remains behind the scenes or runs for office in the future–a distinct possibility–one thing is for sure: you’ll be sure to hear the name Sarah Elfreth for decades to come.
Anonymous: “Sarah Elfreth, a resident of Annapolis MD, is a true leader and an extraordinary example of a young woman who is both influential and impactful before State and local government.”
2. Amit Mistry is a rising star not just in Montgomery County, not just in Annapolis but also in the big leagues: DC. Currently the National Data & Targeting Director at the League of Conservation Voters, he was previously an Account Executive at Catalist. Before that, he was Chief of Staff to House Majority Leader Kumar Barve and worked for Martin O’Malley–both in the Governor’s Office and on his reelection Campaign. He also worked for Del. Sam Arora in his Annapolis office and on his 2010 primary campaign. A native of Damascus, he is well positioned to win a seat in District 14 if he ever felt so inclined. The kicker: he’s only 26.
3. Jonathan Sachs is the rare wunderkind made good. Currently Director of Public Policy for Adventist Healthcare, I could see Jonathan as a successor to GiGi Godwin as CEO of the MoCo Chamber. A number of different people wrote in to nominate Jonathan for this list. Here is what one said:
Anonymous: “Probably the most notable thing about Jonathan—and it speaks to his character and intelligence—is that in a county where “progressives” rule, Jonathan is a centrist, pro-business Democrat. He thinks for himself and doesn’t fall in line with the local political dogma, so his input is all the more valuable because those who share his point of view can get drowned out in our local political conversations. But when Jonathan says something, people—included elected officials—pay attention.”
4. Zach Fang – In my opinion, Zach is now the top field director in the State of Maryland. With a DCCC Pedigree, Zach has returned to the Free State more dangerous than ever. Doug Gansler lucked out hiring this guy.
5. Melissa Joseph is whip smart and perhaps has the best people skills of Maryland’s political class. With an extensive experience in the offices of Ron Young, Rob Garagiola and Chris Van Hollen, Melissa is a triple threat: she’s effective at the federal, state and campaign levels.
6. Ed Burroughs – Not only is Ed the youngest member of Prince George’s School Board, he’s established himself as a national thought leader on education reform. Although he passed on what would have been an easy open seat race for Delegate in D26, a promotion is surely in his near future. He’ll certainly be the favorite to succeed Obie Patterson on the County Council . . . if he wants it. Close with the Iveys, he could also end up as a bigwig in a potential Gansler administration.
7. Joseph Kitchen – Joseph is a highly influential openly gay African-American Minister. He is also a respected voice on education reform and were it not for a recurrence of cancer would have likely been elected to the Prince George’s School Board in 2012. He is also the President of the Young Democrats of Maryland, who have experienced a lot of growth in the DC Suburbs under his tenure.
8. Anne Klase is part of Comptroller Peter Franchot’s small, close knit circle (along with Andrew Friedson and Len Foxwell)
Anonymous: Anne is District 30’s go-to. Hardworking, balanced, and liked by everyone.
Anonymous – works for the Comptroller (floats between the campaign and the office) but don’t hold that against her. She’ll be elected to the AAC Central Committee in June. In a county with few strong Dems (and the strong ones can sometimes be divisive), Anne is universally liked and respected. She is young (23/4) and has a long career ahead in AA politics – if only as the person behind the scenes
9. Kelly Blynn is a Rockstar organizer. No one does it better in Montgomery County. I dread the day I find myself on the opposite side of an issue from Kelly because that can be a very scary place to be. One nominator described her as:
“Coalition for Smarter Growth, transit advocate – a sophisticated and energetic organizer who played a central role in the BRT campaign.”
10. Tommy Underwood is a genuinely nice, decent guy and done a great job so far managing O’Malley Speechwriter Nick Stewart’s state house run and has a very bright future. This guy could be the Executive Director of the Democratic Caucus in 2018.
Anonymous: He’s not only a plugged-in guy with a very easy-going personality, but he’s also one of the hardest workers I’ve come across and sharp politically.
11. Andrew Friedson. Excepting his longtime handler Len Foxwell, no one is closer to Peter Franchot than Andrew Friedson. He currently serves as Communications Director in the Comptroller’s Office, where he was previously Deputy Chief of Staff. He managed Franchot’s reelection campaign in 2010.
Anonymous: “another no-brainer nominee.”
12. Cory McCray – As far as I’m concerned, there is not a single person in Baltimore (or Maryland) who doesn’t think Cory McCray will win a seat in the legislature on June 24th. One incumbent actually dropped out to avoid facing him in the primary–and I don’t think anyone blames her. Cory has been a recognized leader in the IBEW for years. He’s also infectiously charming. Future Mayor?
Anonymous: Cory is a graduate of a five-year apprenticeship program with International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) Local 24. For the past four years before becoming a candidate in Baltimore’s District 45 you could not say union organizing in Baltimore without mentioning Cory’s name. Corey also is the co creator of the B.E.S.T. Democratic Club.
13. Jonathan Jayes-Greene is very bright and connects well with many people. He combines a tremendous personal story with boundless political savvy to promote the issues important to him, which frequently involve immigration. Currently working in the governor’s office, maybe he’ll return there as First Panamanian-American governor?
The Next Chair of Ways and Means
At least one prominent District 20 activist disagrees with my assessment that longtime incumbent Del. Sheila Hixson is a safe bet for reelection. So, apparently, does the Gazette. I still think she’s a lock but I’ve been wrong in the past. So after asking around Annapolis, here’s the shortlist:
- Anne Kaiser
- Kumar Barve
- Bill Frick
If they hadn’t left the House, Brian Feldman and Justin Ross would both be on the list too. Geographic balance suggests that the chair would have to be from Montgomery County–Maryland’s largest jurisdiction and particularly large Democratic delegation can’t be chair-less.
Promoting gender balance in the leadership would favor a woman for the spot. Otherwise, there would be a very non-PC 1-5 gender split and Democrats tend to be especially obsessed with such things. Both of these would favor the smart, hard charging Education Subcommittee Chair Anne Kaiser.
On the other hand, Revenues Subcommittee Chair Bill Frick is one of the brightest intellects that the House of Delegates has seen in some time. He is also well-liked in Annapolis, although rumor has it his aborted AG Campaign may have rankled some in leadership as well as his District 16 colleagues. Regardless, Frick is an immensely talented politician. If he became Chair, he would become a strong candidate to become Speaker (whenever Mike Busch moves on).
Majority Leader Kumar Barve, who would be first AAPI Committee Chair. However, it would be a somewhat lateral move, as he would have to surrender his spot as Majority Leader. Frick or Kaiser would each have an excellent shot at becoming Majority Leader if Barve took the helm at Ways and Means. But so would John Bohanon or Talmadge Branch.
Am I completely off base? Send questions, comments and complaints to johnga.ems@gmail.com.
Top Six Eastern Shore Young Guns
1. Brian Kemmett – Brian is managing the biggest state senate race of the cycle–Jim Mathias’s reelection. In 2010, he was a Regional Field Coordinator for the O’Malley Campaign. That alone justifies his inclusion on this list. Brian was also a Regional Field Director for the state party in 2012 and attended Salisbury University. In between elections, he was a Canvass Director for Progressive Maryland and worked in US Senator Barbara Mikulski’s office..
2. Jake Day – The Salisbury City Council President also happens to be a Veteran and holds Masters degrees from Oxford and Carnegie Mellon. (For undergrad, he was a Terp). He’s also a Lieutenant in the National Guard. Jake has also worked for the Eastern Shore Land Conservancy. He could give Andy Harris a real race one day. He previously served on the City Planning Commission.
3. Josh Hastings – Josh is waging a strong campaign in a solidly Republican district for Wicomico County Council. Currently the lobbyist for the Eastern Shore Land Conservancy, he was previously an aide to Senate Education, Health and Environmental Affairs Committee Chair Joan Carter Conway. Could succeed Rick Pollitt as County Exec one day.
Anonymous: Truly a nice guy. Smart & dedicated to the Eastern Shore.
4. Laura Clay – There are very, very few good professional fundraisers in Maryland. Laura is one of them. She did finance on both of Frank Kratovil’s Congressional Campaigns and is now helping Bill Tilghman post surprisingly big numbers in his MD-01 bid.
5. Robby Sheehan– The Director of Government & Community Relations (and Deputy Chief of Staff in the President’s Office) for Salisbury University is one of the youngest people working in Annapolis (provided you don’t include interns), period. He previously worked for the powerful House Appropriations Committee Chairman Norm Conway. Currently working on a Master’s Degree, this guy has big things in his future.
6. Dennis Teagardin – Dennis’s influence extends far beyond the Shore to the Baltimore Suburbs (where he’ll likely take a seat on the Central Committee in July) and to Montgomery County (where he is Delegate Kirill Reznik’s Legislative Aide). However, this Ocean Pines native and Jamie Fontaine protege will forever be intricately tied to the Shore. If there were a competitive congressional in MD-01, he’d be a solid field director.
Anonymous: He is president of Baltimore County Young Dems and a candidate for Central Committee for District 11 (he is on the slate with Sen. Zirkin and Delegates Stein and Morhaim). He is currently on the Central Committee by function of being President of Balto County YD. He is generally seen as a potential successor to a Delegate seat in 2018, should one come open, and is active on a number of campaigns and fundraising efforts.
Anonymous: He is president of Baltimore County Young Dems and a candidate for Central Committee for District 11 (he is on the slate with Sen. Zirkin and Delegates Stein and Morhaim). He is currently on the Central Committee by function of being President of Balto County YD. He is generally seen as a potential successor to a Delegate seat in 2018, should one come open, and is active on a number of campaigns and fundraising efforts.
Top Four Southern Maryland Young Guns
1. Duwane Rager– Sue Kullen is one of three real pick up opportunities for Team Blue this year–the others are Nick Scarpelli and Patrick Murray. Duwane, her Campaign Manager, stands to benefit immensely, if she pulls it off. Duwane is also the President of the Southern Maryland Young Dems and a member of the Calvert Central Committee.
Anonymous The Southern Maryland Young Democrats President, a member of the Calvert County Democratic Central Committee and the Campaign Manager for Sue Kullen’s campaign for Delegate. He is a great guy and someone who is really going places in the region.
2. Scott Moore – Scott’s a rare breed in Maryland Politics–a professional. He’s done work for Marylanders for Marriage Equality, the the Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Caucus and the Virginia House Democratic Caucus. I’ve always felt that out of state work is a signal of great talent.
3. Ben Goldstein-Smith – Super nice, solid dude. Currently managing Steny Hoyer’s reelection. I think the quote speaks more to his talents than I ever could.
Anonymous: Four years ago, Ben was a field coordinator on Nancy King’s Senate re-election. This year, he is serving in his second year as Executive Director of Hoyer for Congress. Talk about moving quick.
4. Anne Klase – Anne is part of Comptroller Peter Franchot’s small, close knit circle (along with Andrew Friedson and Len Foxwell).
Anonymous: Anne is District 30’s go-to. Hardworking, balanced, and liked by everyone.
Anonymous – works for the Comptroller (floats between the campaign and the office) but don’t hold that against her. She’ll be elected to the AAC Central Committee in June. In a county with few strong Dems (and the strong ones can sometimes be divisive), Anne is universally liked and respected. She is young (23/4) and has a long career ahead in AA politics.
Top Eight Young Guns of Baltimore City
1. Cory McCray – As far as I’m concerned, there is not a single person in Baltimore (or Maryland) who doesn’t think Cory McCray will win a seat in the legislature on June 24th. One incumbent actually dropped out to avoid facing him in the primary–and I don’t think anyone blames her. Cory has been a recognized leader in the IBEW for years. He’s also infectiously charming. Future Mayor?
Anonymous: Cory is a graduate of a five-year apprenticeship program with International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) Local 24. For the past four years before becoming a candidate in Baltimore’s District 45 you could not say union organizing in Baltimore without mentioning Cory’s name. Corey also is the co creator of the B.E.S.T. Democratic Club.
2. Dy Reed – The eternally savvy in-house lobbyist for the Maryland Department of Human Resources. Currently in law school at the University of Baltimore, she attended Columbia University for undergrad. Incredible potential.
Anonymous: When Dy isn’t lobbying in Annapolis in her official capacity as government relations rep for the Maryland HR, she is one of the most active members of the Baltimore City Young Dems. Dy was also recently recognized for her work in Baltimore by the B.E.S.T. Democratic Club.
3. Brian Hammock – I’m reasonably certain that Brian was the youngest statewide field director in the country in 2006 when he oversaw the ground game for O’Malley’s first statewide run. After a stint in the Governor’s office, he’s practicing law with Mid-Atlantic powerhouse Venable LLP. He’ll be an insider from city hall to the statehouse until the day he dies.
4. Matt Stegman – The nicest, funniest dude in Maryland politics. With a resume that includes lots of real races both in Maryland (O’Malley and Kratovil) and in more competitive states (Ohio and Pennsylvania). he currently works for House Environmental Matters Committee Chair (and contender for the Speaker’s Chair) Maggie McIntosh. At night, he goes to the University of Baltimore Law School (a.k.a. finishing school for lobbyists).
Anonymous: Like his boss – smart, progressive, & has the best sense of humor in Annapolis.
5. Liz Richards – Liz is a former DSCC independent expenditures staffer who is currently managing Brooke Lierman’s surefire delegate campaign in District 46. I fail to see how they lose that race, and Liz should be well positioned to capitalize on the victory.
6. Benjamin Smith – The Student Government President at UMD Law School is already a published author (the book was about community agriculture). He has 2018 written all over him. Kentucky native but looking to move up in Charm City.
Anonymous: Ben recently moved to Maryland to attend law school, and he has quickly asserted himself in the political community. Ben makes no secret that he holds deep political ambitions in the state of Maryland, and in Baltimore, in particular. Look for him to make a run for elected office shortly after he graduates law school and passes the bar.
7. Anthony Jones – This Baltimore City native and Martha McKenna protege previously worked for US Senator Ben Cardin and Comptroller Peter Franchot. Someone to have on your side in the upcoming 2016 municipal elections.
8. Tashea Brodgins – Currently, she works at the Department of State and was previously with the Executive Office of The President. Tashea was the President of the Baltimore City Young Democrats for five or six years–A remarkable run for an organization known for high turn over–and remains tied in locally as a member of the City Central Committee.