Tag Archives: Ron Young

2018 Elections, General Assembly

Your Election Night Senate Scorecard

Earlier tonight, I detailed the list of 24 safe Democratic and 14 safe Republican seats in the General Assembly. Included on that list was any seat that the appropriate party swept in (1) the 2014 gubernatorial election, (2) the 2016 presidential election, and (3) the 2014 state legislative elections.

Sen. Bobby Zirkin (D-11) should really have been included on the safe list, as he enviably has no opponent. Though Hogan won the seat by 14 in 2014, Republicans evidently decided not to take on Zirkin in this seat won by Clinton by 24 in 2016.

That leaves eight vulnerable Democratic seats. Republicans need to net five to gain enough seats to uphold a veto should Larry Hogan win election to a second term tomorrow. Today’s scorecard ranks them from most to least vulnerable:

1. District 42 (OPEN) Likely Republican

This Baltimore County district meanders from the City to the Pennsylvania border. Sen. Jim Brochin (D), the most moderate member of the General Assembly, gave up his seat to run for Baltimore County executive. He lost the Democratic nomination by just a hair to Democrat Johnny Oleszewski.

An astute campaigner, Brochin nevertheless held the seat with just 51.6% in 2014. That Brochin held it at all is a credit to his skills. Hogan won it by 42 points-more than any other seat on this list of vulnerable Democratic seats.

Republican Del. Chris West (R-42B) already represents two-thirds of the district and hopes to move to the Senate. Robbie Leonard, his  opponent, is a former chair of the Baltimore County Democratic Central Committee. It’s hard to see how Leonard wins in a district that Clinton lost narrowly in 2016 and that Hogan will likely take by even more in 2018 than four years ago. But anything is possible if Democrats perform strongly enough tomorrow.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 54% D, 32% R, 13% other.

2. District 8 (Kathy Klausmeier) Toss Up

Though not the most Republican seat on this list, Sen. Kathy Klausmeier is nonetheless the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat running for reelection. She is facing her toughest contest yet as she hopes to fend off Republican Del. Christian Miele.

This east Baltimore County district barely went for Clinton in 2016 just two years after Hogan won it by 36. In many ways, it resembles neighboring District 6, which had long been held by Democrats until it fell to a Republican sweep in 2014 and took down Johnny O’s Senate ambitions with them.

While D6 is 6% more African American than D8, it too has many white voters who find Trump appealing and among whom Hogan is the consensus choice. Miele is a strong candidate with fewer vulnerabilities than other Republican challengers, notwithstanding his odd links to marijuana lobbyist Max Davidson.

Republicans already hold two of the delegate seats. One wonders if any less well attuned Democrats than Sen. Klausmeier and Del. Bromwell would have a shot in a district that seems to be moving away from them. It doesn’t help Democrats that the Jealous campaign doesn’t speak to the concerns of this district’s voters even as Hogan remains quite appealing.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 56% D, 32% R, 12% other.

3. District 38 (Jim Mathias) Toss Up

No Democrat other than Sen. Jim Mathias would even have a prayer in this seat. Trump beat Clinton by 28 points and Hogan defeated Brown by 40 points in this southeastern Eastern Shore district. Republicans took all three of the delegate districts in 2014. So why isn’t Del. Mary Beth Carozza just waltzing into this seat?

Like Larry Hogan, Jim Mathias has his own brand. Neither would have a hope of winning if they were heavily identified with their political party. It also doesn’t hurt that former Ocean City Mayor Mathias has represented all of D38, while Carozza now serves just one-third of it in the House of Delegates.

There are two hugely contrasting trends here. The electorate can only be more favorable to Mathias than in 2014 when Democratic turnout sagged terribly. On the other hand, my bet is Hogan wins by even more than four years ago.

Mathias will always have a target on his back. But he has his own brand and the financial backing needed for his campaign. By all rights, Republicans should win this one but Mathias may well keep them at bay for another four years.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 43% D, 45% R, 12% other.

4. District 3 (Ron Young) Toss Up

In contrast to Klausmeier’s Baltimore County district, Young’s Frederick County district seems to be moving towards the Democrats. Clinton won it by 8 in 2016 and Hogan’s 15 point 2014 win was less impressive than other similar areas.

More Democratic voters keep moving into the area, resulting in the shift that has already turned Frederick from a red Republican bastion into a decidedly purple county. In the most recent Frederick City elections, Democrats convincingly ousted Republicans.

The problem for Democrats here is Young fatigue. A solid member of the Senate, Young has nevertheless been around Frederick politics a long time in a year when experience is seen as code for outdated and untrustworthy by many. His opponent, Craig Giangrande, has no political experience but a lot of cash.

Young won by a bare majority four years ago when he earned a second Senate term. The more congenial composition of the electorate combined with long-term trends ought to help him out even if Hogan is well positioned to pad his margins here. Democrats will nonetheless want to get out every last vote to hold this seat.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 56% D, 28% R, 16% other.

5. District 30 (OPEN) Toss Up

Sen. John Astle (D) is stepping down after an unsuccessful run for mayor of Annapolis. Democrat Sarah Elfreth represents a young but  politically experienced and savvy fresh face. In a year when voters seem interested in new candidates, she combines it with an utterly capable and trustworthy pair of hands.

The district is not easy territory for Democrats. Clinton lost it by 1 in 2016 and Brown fell 29 points short in 2014. Note, however, that this is still 7 points better than in Klausmeier’s district. The likelihood that the electorate will be more congenial in 2018 than 2014 for Democrats will also aid Elfreth.

Elfreth also benefits from her opponent, former Del. Ron George, who is 65 and been around the political block. He won his seat by coming in third place in District 30 in 2006 but came in second when he won reelection in 2010.

Someone edited his Wikipedia page to state that George came in fourth in the Republican gubernatorial primary in 2014. This seems a bit kind since fourth was also last with just 12% of the vote. Even in District 30, he won only 30% of the primary vote.

George’s love for conspiracy theories and Hitler memes isn’t helping his comeback bid. If elections were solely about candidate talent, Elfreth would win this in a slam dunk. As it stands, George is helping Elfreth’s efforts to keep him a has been in a district that ought to be congenial to Republican suasion. Democrats also hope that the shellacking they gave Republicans in the Annapolis elections bodes well for tomorrow.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 53% D, 31% R, 15% other.

6. District 32 (OPEN) Lean Democratic

Del. Pam Beidle has already represented this entire district. A talented candidate well attuned to her district despite being more liberal than the Democrat she seeks to replace, Beidle is the favorite.

Her opponent, Anne Arundel Councilman John Grasso, is term limited off the Council. Like Ron George, John Grasso is social media challenged with a penchant for online nuttery. Unlike George, he is still in office so better known.

District 32 leans far less Republican than the more vulnerable districts higher up on this list. Clinton won it by 12 in 2016, though Hogan carried it by 17 in 2014. Unless Hogan has longer coattails or Grasso proves more formidable than expected, Beidle is the favorite to move from the House to the Senate.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 61% D, 24% R, 15% other.

7. District 12 (OPEN) Likely Democratic

Democratic Nominee Clarence Lam is a first-term delegate seeking to hold the seek being vacated by B&T Chair Ed Kasemeyer. Clinton won this turf in Howard and Baltimore Counties by 17 points in 2016 while Hogan won it by 11 in 2014.

Howard is one the most highly educated places in our highly educated state. Put another way, it’s exactly the sort of place where people are moving away from the Republicans in the era of Donald Trump. Unless Hogan inspires partisan loyalty totally at odds with his carefully cultivated persona, Lam should win this one.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 65% D, 20% R, 15% other.

8. District 27 (Miller) Likely Democratic

This district makes the list for a few reasons. First, it is the final crosspressured district that went for Clinton and Hogan. Interestingly, District 27 seems to have lesser tendencies for ticket splitting based on the relatively small difference between their performances compared to elsewhere in the state. The relatively small share of non-major party early voters (see below) also is suggestive of a more partisan electorate.

Second, Republicans are always tempted by the fantasy of taking out the longest serving legislative leader in American history. But you don’t survive in that position for so long based on dumb luck, so the dream seems likely to remain a dream. Nevertheless, I hope this inspires someone in the Senate President’s office to call and yell at me. I always enjoy hearing from them!

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 66% D, 24% R, 10% other.

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2018 Governor's Race, turnout

How Will Turnout Matter This Election Cycle?

I’ve been covering who has been turning out in early voting heavily the past few days. There is little evidence of a wave of young voters turning out that will carry the Democrats to victory. At the same time, the electorate looks much improved for Democrats from 2014 even if it is not showing signs of being as favorable to them as the 2016 presidential electorate.

Of course, we won’t know the complete picture about how turnout has changed from either 2014 or 2016 until all the votes have been cast. But it seems important to take a moment to pause from statistics to  consider when and how turnout dynamics matter.

Turnout Won’t Matter in the Governor’s Race

Based on the polls, Ben Jealous is in dire trouble. In a future post, I hope to explore why Jealous is flailing despite Maryland’s favorable demographics that should be even more favorable due to shifts in voting behavior unleashed by Trump in a future post. In a nutshell, he losing far too much of the Democratic base.

Anthony Brown fared poorly among white voters four years ago. Ben Jealous looks set to do even worse even as Democrats elsewhere look poised to make substantial gains among highly educated women. Equally problematic, he is hemorrhaging support among nonwhite voters.

Even the most favorable Democratic turnout wind cannot save Jealous from these fundamental problems. They could help close the gap with Hogan but that would merely serve to make his loss somewhat more respectable. But there is no way that Jealous can win the election if he loses roughly 30% of Democratic voters as polls currently indicate.

Who Votes Matters More Down Ballot

Republicans are hoping that there will be a Larry Hogan wave that gives them enough seats in the General Assembly to uphold his veto in at least one house. They’ve focused particularly hard pm the Senate in their “drive for five.”

Except to my surprise in our polarized era, voters seem quite inclined to split their tickets. The same polls that show Larry Hogan receiving a vote share in the high 50s reveal similar proportions wanting Democrats to control the legislature.

In 2014, the Republicans picked up the low hanging fruit in several districts that had long leaned more Republican in national elections and became even more so with Trumpian populism. But there were simply enormous gaps in support for Hogan and Republican legislative candidates elsewhere.

That pattern could easily appear again in 2018. Gov. Hogan has framed this election as a vote to maintain what he presents as our much improved status quo and that he works well with the legislature. That’s hardly an argument to throw out Democrats in the General Assembly.

Republicans are hoping that better candidates and huge financial investments will change this dynamic. But Democrats who defect for Hogan may not be so quick to do so when presented with different candidates. Democrats who think Hogan is fine or Jealous has too many unrealistically expensive plans will often find their local Democratic candidate better attuned to their patch and deem the Republican too right wing.

In Senate races with Democratic incumbents fighting a tough battle for reelection, such as Ron Young in Frederick or Kathy Klausmeier in Baltimore County, a more favorable electorate could provide them with a crucial cushion.

It could also make a difference in the many exciting county executive races and help, for example, carry Johnny Oleszewski into office in Baltimore County. The races in Howard and Anne Arundel have also tightened, though it’s unclear how much. If Democratic challengers can get within a few points, a more favorable electorate could open the door to an upset. It won’t be enough to overcome a spread that looks more like 55-45.

In short, this year, turnout dynamics look likely to have the potential to play a crucial difference around the margins but the candidates have to get close enough for the margin to make a difference.

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2018 Elections

Part II: Democrats Most Likely to Lose 1-2 Senate Seats

Part I looked at the relationship between Trump’s share of the vote and Democratic success in Virginia’s state house elections. Today, I look and see what the Virginia results indicate for Maryland Senate races.

Using a statistical technique called logit, I estimated the probability of Democratic victories in all 47 districts based on the relationship between the share of the vote won by Trump and election outcomes in Virginia.

I also controlled for the presence of Republican incumbents. The statistical model indicated that the relationship is not statistically significant, but the inclusion of this factor results in slightly lower probabilities of success in districts with GOP incumbents. (All Democratic incumbents won and represented seats Clinton won by 15 points, so I cannot similarly control for any advantage held by Democratic incumbents.)

The statistical model suggests that Democrats are most likely to lose 1 or 2 seats in the Senate. A more conservative estimate would be that the Democrats lose 0 to 3 seats. Even a loss of 3 seats would leave Democrats with more than enough to override a Hogan veto should he overcome tough political winds and win reelection.

Which seats are most likely to shift?

Most Vulnerable Democratic Seat

Sen. Jim Mathias defies political gravity in holding Eastern Shore District 38, which gave Trump 61% of the vote – a full 28 points higher than the share received by Clinton. But this former Ocean City Mayor earns it by out hustling his opponents in every way and is a born politician. He beat a delegate in 2014 and will likely face one-term Del. Mary Beth Carozza this year.

District 38 has three subdistricts so Carozza has represented just one-third of the district, including Mathias’s home in Ocean City. She has $114K in the bank compared to $250K for Mathias. Senate President Miller spent big to aid Mathias in 2014 and is prepared to do it again. Hogan and the Republicans have also promised to invest large sums, but the big question is whether Hogan will decide he needs to money for himself.

Despite in theory being a lock for Republicans, this race is a conundrum. Statistically. Mathias should be a dead duck. But the same was true in 2014. Why should Mathias now lose in 2018, expected to be a good Democratic year? Additionally, my model cannot control for any positive impact of Democratic incumbency. I rate it a toss-up.

Vulnerable Democrats?

Recall from Part I that seats that had the potential to go either way in Virginia fell into the range of giving Trump between 40.5% and 48.0% of the vote. Only five Maryland Senate seats fall into this range, all held by Democrats:

Individually, Democrats are likely to win each of the seats. None are particularly encouraging for Republicans. Collectively, the model indicates a 60% chance of losing one of these seats.

District 3: Frederick
As usual, Republicans plan on going after Sen. Ron Young in Frederick. Good luck with that. The model suggests he is a lock, and this ignores that Frederick has been trending Democratic or that Democrats thumped Republicans in last year’s City of Frederick elections to win control of the mayoralty and city council. Trump lost to Clinton by 8 points in this district. Not going to happen.

District 27: Anne Arundel, Calvert and Prince George’s
Similarly, taking down Senate President Mike Miller would be quite a prize for Republicans. The model gives Republicans a 1 percent shot in this district Trump lost by over 5 points. However, it’s virtually impossible to see how the always well-prepared Miller, the longest serving legislative leader in American history, goes down in territory he has won easily for decades.

District 30: Anne Arundel
The next three seats have Republicans salivating but the model indicates that they are underdogs in each. Sen. John Astle’s retirement from his Annapolis-based district, after losing the primary for city’s mayoralty, leaves a vacancy. Even so, Republicans have only a 14% shot at picking up this district.

Democrats are very pleased with their dynamic and politically experienced candidate, Sarah Elfreth. As in Frederick, Democrats gave Republicans a hiding in the 2017 Annapolis municipal elections. Former Del. Ron George has a clear path to the Republican nomination, as Del. Herb McMillan has given the race a pass. George ran for governor in 2014, losing Anne Arundel to Hogan in the primary by a 2-1 margin. However, George has a bank balance of $169K to $50K for Elfreth.

District 8: Baltimore
Republicans seem to think that they have a shot at taking out Sen. Kathy Klausmeier. The model indicates they have a 1 in 6 chance of victory but that doesn’t take into account any incumbency benefit held by Klausmeier. Their candidate, Del. Christian Miele, doesn’t seem too excited about his prospects, sensing that voter anger with Trump will dominate:

“It definitely gives you some heartburn as a Republican when you see what just happened,” said Republican Delegate Christian J. Miele, of Baltimore County, who is challenging Democratic state Sen. Katherine Klausmeier. “We’re all wondering if 2018 is going to be a continued referendum on the president.”

As Trump’s life goal is to be in the headlines, the answer seems clear. Miele has $87K in the bank compared to $194 for Klausmeier, who is well liked in her district but taking nothing for granted. There are rumors that Miele might just run for reelection for delegate.

District 42: Baltimore
Sen. Jim Brochin is retiring to run for county executive. The most conservative Democrat in the Senate, Brochin had both a tough primary and general last time around. The improved political climate suggests that Democrats have a 72% probability of holding the seat. Del. Chris West (42B) is running for the Republicans. Democrats have two candidates, Robbie Leonard and Gretchen Manavel. Sources tell me Leonard, a former county party chair, has the advantage with local activists but that Manavel has money and the energy – and would be a stronger candidate.

Not Vulnerable

District 32: Anne Arundel
Republicans think they have a good chance of picking up retiring moderate Sen. Ed DeGrange’s seat. Wrong. Clinton carried the district by 12 and it’s not going to happen barring a massive sea change in the political environment. Del. Pam Beidle is a very strong candidate and will win. Republicans are spinning their wheels here.

Vulnerable Republicans?

There are four seats where Democrats hope to play but will likely fall short.

District 9: Howard
Sen. Gail Bates is the most vulnerable Republican but still holds a seat Trump won by nearly 8. The Carroll County portion of her district will likely save her from going down to defeat, as Howard includes less favorable territory even if it is by far the more Republican portion of the county. Democrats have nevertheless recruited a strong candidate in Katie Hester ready to take advantage of any wave.

District 6: Baltimore
For Democrats, this was a real heartbreaker race in 2014 as Del. John Olszewski, Jr., known to one and all as Johnny O, lost by less than 3% to now Sen. Johnny Ray Salling. Democrats think that Salling didn’t so much win as became the accidental senator due to the hellacious political climate. Though Salling is seen as a lightweight who doesn’t work hard in office or at fundraising – he has just $30K in his campaign account – this was territory Trump carried by 15 points that shifted GOP across the board in 2014 and 2016.

Democrats have recruited a local activist and electrician, Bud Staigerwald, who fits the district well and is strongly backed by Comptroller Peter Franchot. Staigerwald lost a primary for Council District 7 in 2014.

District 34: Harford
Sen. Bob Cassilly represents the more Democratic turf in Harford but it’s still Republican and went for Trump by 11 points. Del. Mary-Dulany James, a strong and well-funded candidate, lost by 14.5% to now Sen. Bob Cassilly. Democrats think that they can take Casilly this time around but it will remain tough. Their ability to take advantage of opportunity will improve substantially if the locally deep-rooted James runs again.

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Anne Arundel, Baltimore County, Frederick County, General Assembly, Howard

2018 Maryland Senate Ratings, Part II

Click to Enlarge

Part I discussed ratings for safe and toss-up seats in the Maryland Senate. Today, 7S focuses on the six Lean and Likely Democratic districts.  All are currently held by incumbent Democrats.

Lean Democratic

District 3 (Frederick County). Sen. Ron Young had a real scare in 2014, winning just 50.8% of the vote after defeating incumbent Alex Mooney with 51.1% in 2010. Mooney has since fled to West Virginia where he is now a U.S. Representative.

This part of Frederick has been trending Democratic. Clinton carried D3 by 8. Hogan won by 15, a good margin but less impressive than in several districts held by Democrats in Anne Arundel and Baltimore. As this district has the best Democratic territory in Frederick, Young ought to be able to win a third term.

But Frederick has been hotly contested between the two parties of late and this former Frederick Mayor has sometimes been a controversial figure. My current expectations remain for the GOP to have another go at Young but fall short, though they will force Democrats to scramble to retain the seat.

Likely Democratic

See the map at the bottom of the post for the locations of the five Likely Democratic districts.

District 8 (Baltimore County). Sen. Kathy Klausmeier won an impressive victory in 2014. Though her district went for Hogan by 36 points, she not only won but took 61.2% of the vote. In 2016, Hogan’s impressive margin evaporated as Trump carried D8 by seven-tenths of one percent.

This is an interesting district because, though the incumbent has demonstrated popularity, it remains marginal turf. If Republicans want to make gains, they will have to look here, even if Klausmeier is clearly no easy mark. The district could become competitive with the right Republican candidate and favorable political winds.

District 11 (Baltimore County). Sen. Bobby Zirkin was unopposed for reelection last time around, so what is he doing on this list? Zirkin represents a cross-pressured district that supported Hogan by 14 points even as it then went for Clinton by 24 points.

Zirkin is an active legislator who champions several popular, easy-to-explain causes, such as stronger anti-domestic violence legislation. Nonetheless, if Maryland’s political climate turns against Democrats, this seat could be a surprise domino to fall. The district bears watching even if Zirkin should be in good shape.

District 12 (Howard and Baltimore Counties). Another cross-pressured district, D12 went for Hogan by 11 but Clinton by 17. Budget and Taxation Committee Chair Ed Kasemeyer won reelection with a convincing, albeit a tad lower than Klausmeier, margin of 58.6%.

Kasemeyer has an impressive electoral history (59% in 2014, 59% in 2010, 62% in 2006, 63% in 2002, 57% in 1998, 51% in 1994, 54% in 1986) that will make it difficult for Republicans to break through in increasingly Democratic Howard.

Howard has shown itself willing to vote for particular sorts of Republicans, including County Executive Allan Kittleman, who is liberal on social questions, and Gov. Larry Hogan, who relentlessly ignores them. Can the Republicans find one to challenge Kasemeyer or win the open seat should he choose to retire?

District 27 (Southern Maryland). Mike Miller entered the House of Delegates in 1971, the Senate in 1975 and became the Senate President in 1987, which makes him the longest serving legislative body leader in American history. Sen. Miller has led the Senate for so long that when I interviewed him over the telephone for my college senior thesis in the late 1980s, he was already Senate President.

The Senate President represents a politically diverse district that includes big chunks of Calvert and southeastern Prince George’s Counties as well as smaller bits of Charles and St. Mary’s. The Calvert portion of the district is much more Republican than the portions in Charles or Prince George’s.

Republicans would love to defeat this pillar of the Democratic Party. While he attracts complaints of being too conservative from the left, he fights very hard for members of his caucus, raising a lot of money and directing broader organizational efforts to retain a robust Democratic Senate majority.

This district is also far from totally hostile territory. While Clinton won it by 5 points in 2016, Hogan also carried it by 6 points in 2014. This divergence is a lot smaller than many Maryland legislative districts and is suggestive of tighter partisan loyalties, especially among its sizable African-American minority.

Republicans have not come close to defeating Miller. He won 63% in 2014, 75% in 2010, 70% in 2006, 72% in 2002, 69% in 1998, 68% in 1994, 84% in 1990, and 82% in 1986. (The State Board of Elections has not put the stone tablets with earlier election results online yet.) Despite receiving his lowest percentage since at least the 1980s in 2014, my guess is that Sen. Miller is not going to be beat. Still, the turf is marginal and remains Likely Democratic.

District 32 (Anne Arundel). Yet another cross-pressured district that bears a more than passing resemblance to its nearby counterparts in Baltimore and Howard Counties, this district went for Hogan by 17 but for Clinton by 12.

Moderate Sen. Ed DeGrange would seemingly be a good fit for this district. Except in these highly partisan times, some will argue that an outspoken liberal would do more to stir the troops. Like others listed here, he possesses real electoral experience, winning his seat by 59% in 2014, 60% in 2010, 61% in 2006, 59% in 2002, and 52% in 1998.

The remarkable consistency since his first reelection does not look like the record of someone about to lose his seat. Nevertheless, if Republicans are to make gains, they will look to Anne Arundel and to this district along with District 30.

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Baltimore Sun, Gun Control

Frederick Gun Extremist Threatens Sun Reporter

grose-deckedoutJames Grose
Source: True Blue Politics

My appreciation to the person in Frederick who provided me much of the information for this story.

Frederick County Resident James Grose believes that “gun confiscation efforts” are a real danger should a Democrat win the 2016 presidential election. It’s hard to know how seriously to treat someone who creates a new Facebook page under the giggle-inducing name of Mr. Boomstick. Except that his threats and whipping up hysteria on gun control are very real.

His Facebook cover photo is a “three percenter flag.” According to the Anti-Defamation League (ADL):

The Three Percenters, formed in late 2008, are a loosely organized movement centered around an obscure, and not particularly accurate, Revolutionary War “statistic” that claimed that only 3% of the American population during the Revolutionary War participated as combatants in the war.  The group asserts that they are a modern counterpart to that mythical 3% of American Revolutionary-era patriots and also represent the three percent of the population of American gun owners “who will not disarm.”

Smearing Sen. Ron Young

James Grose gained notoriety in the last election when he made anti-Sen. Ron Young (D) signs labeling him a “traitor” with the Soviet hammer and sickle on them:

Grose Young

Threatening the Weinberg Center

As Carrie Larson, a Frederick County blogger, has documented in detail, Grose also threatened the Weinberg Center when they invited Jane Fonda along with General Stanley McChrystal:

Gross Fonda

Godwin’s Law in One Easy Step

Now, this military wannabe (no, he didn’t serve despite his frequent invoking of veterans and love for camo) is recording videos with his extreme views and uploading them to Facebook. On January 7, in response to a a Baltimore Sun opinion piece on guns by Tricia Bishop, Grose said that “This is literally someone who works for the Baltimore Sun . . . you might as well hire a Nazi who wants to kill the Jews.” He debates posting her home address online.

Grose sees himself as a proud Second Amendment patriot but is unintentionally a walking argument for precisely the sort of sensible background checks advocated by President Barack Obama. There are many gun owners who treat firearms with the respect and seriousness that any weapon deserves. They don’t treat them as props while popping off on the Internet calling people “traitor” and threatening to make people “pay the price.”

Support Moms Demand Action.

 

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Democrats, polarization

Ten Most Conservative Democratic Senators

ConsSen

While yesterday’s post focused on the most progressive members of the Democratic Senate Caucus, today 7S looks at the most conservative Democrats using the same data provided by Boris Shor and Nolan McCarty of state legislator ideology. Remember that a more negative score indicates a more progressive senator, so the bottom of the table indicates the most conservative senators. These scores are for the legislator’s entire career in the General Assembly and include House as well as Senate service.

Interestingly, only one of the most moderate Democrats hails from Baltimore City, Montgomery, or Prince George’s County. Prince George’s Sen. Anthony Muse, who backed Larry Hogan in the Governor’s race following a quixotic primary challenge to U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin, is the seventh most conservative Democrat.

Baltimore County Sen. Jim Brochin is the most moderate Democrat, followed by Sen. Kathy Klausmeier, who also hails from Baltimore County. Sen. Bobby Zirkin, the eighth most moderate senator, is the final Baltimore County senator on the list. The other members of Baltimore County’s Senate delegation will be either African-American Democrats or Republicans. Sen. Jim DeGrange and Sen. John Astle, the fourth and fifth most conservative Democrats, represent Anne Arundel.

The final members of the list come from different counties. Sen. Jim Mathias, the third most moderate Democrat, represents the lower Eastern Shore. Sen. Mac Middleton is from increasingly Democratic Charles. Sen. Ron Young represents Frederick, a county that has become more Democratic than in the past in recent elections but went strongly for Larry Hogan.

Finally, Sen. Ed Kasemeyer, the most liberal member of this group of moderates is from Howard, a county that is now solidly Democratic in federal contests but that elected a moderate Republican, Alan Kittleman, as County Executive, and also voted for Larry Hogan.

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District 12, District 3, District 6, District 9, senate

Sleeper Senate Races?

Yesterday’s post on Senate races revealed that most contests are safely in the bag for one candidate or another but highlighted the four closest contests in the State. This afternoon, I take a look at races that are likely to go one way but have an outside potential to surprise. In truth, however, most just further illustrate the paucity of competitive Senate races in Maryland this year.

District 3: Young (D) v. Stottlemyer (R), Likely D
Over at Center Maryland, Josh Kurtz views Sen. Ron Young as a potentially vulnerable Democrat. I just don’t see it. Frederick County now has only a slight Republican lean. In the old District 3, Obama won 59% of the vote even in the old district, though O’Malley took just 48% in 2010. Redistricting shed the district’s most Republican territory, leaving it more Democratic.

In 2010, former longtime Frederick Mayor Young defeated incumbent Sen. Alex Mooney, who is now running for Congress in West Virginia. While Young has a well-funded campaign, his Republican opponent, Corey Stottlemeyer, has little cash to spend (<10K) and has sent no direct mail yet.

However, I suppose a surprisingly large Hogan wave combined with too many Youngs on the ballot–his wife, a former Frederick alderman and mayoral candidate, is running for delegate–could result in an upset. Except that it is much more likely that both members of this husband-wife team win.

District 6: Olszewski (D) v. Salling (R), Likely D
Johnny O. isn’t a character from Goodfellas or a member of a 1950s boy band. Instead, he’s a talented two-term delegate who is the junior half of a father-son political dynamic duo–Johnny O. Sr. has served on the Baltimore County Council since 1998.

In the 2010 delegate race, Johnny O. came in ahead of his fellow Democrats in this increasingly competitive district. But southeastern Baltimore County has not been immune to the attractions of GOP candidates. McCain won 54% in District 6 in 2008, and Ehrlich won 60% in 2010. Brown is not expected to perform well here.

I’d be shocked if Johnny O. didn’t become Sen. Johnny O. (J Yo?). Beyond his excellent father-son personal political brand, his opponent is not well funded. Nevertheless, a rash of straight ticket voting could possibly make this one to watch.

District 9: Frederic (D) v. Bates (R), Likely R
Democrats saw an opportunity to pick up a seat in increasingly Democratic Howard County when incumbent Sen. Alan Kittleman decided to run for county executive. But it looks likely that Del. Gail Bates, who has served in the House since 2002, will keep this district in Republican hands.

Things might have gone differently had the Democrats taken advantage of redistricting and been willing to rejigger the lines radically. However, the redistricting map kept the most Republican areas of Howard united in a single district and still contains a bit of uber-Republican Carroll County.

Though Democrat Ryan Frederic’s campaign is better funded, Bates’ campaign has had healthy financial support. Moreover, Bates’ opponent doesn’t have the name recognition or campaign experience that come from her multiple election victories.

Though Bates would probably prefer that popular Howard County Executive Ken Ulman not be #2 on the Democratic ticket, she’ll benefit from Kittleman leading the Republican charge on the local level. In a better Democratic year and with more demographic change, Frederic might have a better shot but a loss by Bates would be a real upset right now.

District 12: Kasemeyer v. Pippy, Likely D
The only reason that this district is on the likely rather than safe list is that Sen. Ed Kasemeyer won in 2010 with under 60% of the vote. However, the Chair of Budget and Tax unsurprisingly has a well-funded campaign. While Pippy has more than a token amount in his campaign account, it’s not really enough to mount a viable campaign against an entrenched incumbent.

I received some needed push back from my post yesterday declaring two seats safe for Democrats. Specifically, Sen. John Astle in District 30 has dicey turf for Democrats that will go for Hogan and Astle has had close races in the past. However, my cursory examination of campaign finance reports suggests an opponent without sufficient resources.

In District 8, Sen. Kathy Klausmeier also has swingy turf that could cause trouble for Democrats in a bad year but her opponent filed an affidavit indicating a lack of money. If the Republican Senate campaigns are more vibrant than I realize in these districts, let me know. No doubt both are concerned about an undertow due to low support for Lt. Gov. Brown in their area.

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Public Services Commission

Hoskins Confirmed to PSC 43-3

Powerupmoco reports that the Maryland Senate voted to confirm Anne Hoskins to the Public Service Commission. Unusually, the nominee attracted opposition from the Governor’s own party with Sen. Rich Madaleno (D 18, Montgomery), who special ordered the nomination, voting no along with Sen. Karen Montgomery (D 14, Montgomery) and Sen. Ron Young (D 4, Frederick). All are strong progressives. See here for more information on why the nomination was controversial.

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District 3, District 4, Frederick County

Two Fredericks: D3 and D4

In the not too distant past, Republicans looked at counties like Frederick and got excited. Fast growing exurbs like this and the loss of population in places like Baltimore City would gradually shift Maryland in their direction.

Frederick has indeed grown but disappointed the GOP bitterly by becoming much more Democratic in the process. President Obama received 49% in 2008 and 47% in 2012 of Frederick votes. A marked increase compared to the 39% received by Al Gore in 2000.

Under the old legislative district plan, Frederick had all but a tiny piece of District 3. Frederick and Carroll Counties shared District 4 with 4A located in Frederick electing two delegates. District 4B, situated entirely in Carroll except a small bit around Mt. Airy, elected the remaining delegate.

FredCtyDistsOld

The 2010 Frederick Districts

Redistricting has been  good to Frederick. As shown below, Frederick nearly has all of two full districts under the new plan–less than 10% of District 4 remains in Carroll and its subdistricts have accordingly been eliminated.

FredCtyDistsNew

The 2014 Frederick Districts

The new districts follow Frederick’s partisan divisions more closely than the old map. As the map below from Dave’s Redistricting shows, District 3 takes in the most Democratic portions–the City of Frederick and areas to the south–with the remaining much more Republican areas in the County composing District 4.

Additionally, Del. Michael Hough’s (R-3B) home was moved to District 4. Altogether, the changes help Democrats as it strengthens their position in swingy District 3. Meanwhile, District 4 remains a little piece of Republican heaven.

FredCtyPartisanship

Partisan Composition of Frederick (Blue is D and Red is R)

District 3

In District 3, former Frederick Mayor Ron Young toppled shrill right-wing gadlfly Sen. Alex Mooney in 2010. He moved on to running the State GOP into the ground before fleeing to West Virginia for redder pastures where he is now a congressional candidate. Even Maryland Republicans don’t seem to miss him.

Sen. Ron Young has taken liberal stands–he was a strong supporter of marriage equality while Mooney was one of its most vocal opponents–but no one can touch him. He is unopposed in the primary and general election.

All three delegate seats are open. In 3A, neither Del. Patrick Hogan (R) nor Del. Galen Clagett (D) will seek reelection with Hogan’s decision at least partly influenced by the more Democratic version of this Frederick City district. The new redistricting plan placed Del. Michael Hough’s (R-3A) home in District 4.

In District 31A, Sen Ron Young’s wife, Karen Lewis Young has filed for one of the two delegate seats but has not filed a campaign finance report (or at least one doesn’t come up when I search for it). She has a website for her unsuccessful run for the Frederick mayoralty as the Democratic nominee in 2013. In that contest, Young came in second with 32% behind Republican Randy McClement who won with 49%. If elected, Sen. Young and Del. Young would be the only husband and wife team in the General Assembly.

The other potentially strong candidate appears to be Frederick Alderman Carol Krimm. Though she has just $1700 in her campaign account, she has held office and aldermen run citywide, so she is already known throughout a fair portion of the district.

Young and Krimm seems well positioned to win the two seats, if only due to the weakness of the other competition that has filed so far. Candidate Nicholas Bouquet just moved to Frederick one year ago and has also filed no campaign finance report (or again, it just doesn’t appear when I search for it). Roger Wilson has raised no money. The two Republican candidates are poorly funded.

In 3B, Frederick County Democratic Central Committee Vice Chair Stephen Slater is the only filed candidate. Of course, the filing deadline has not yet arrived.

District 4

All four seats in District 4 are safe for the Republicans. Though Del. Michael Hough’s website still solicits support for running in 3B, his home is now in District 4  and plans to run for the Senate against incumbent Sen. Minority Leader David Brinkley. Hough’s very active twitter feed of anti-Obamacare, anti-tax. anti-union, global warming denying posts sure has the look of a Republican straining to endear himself to tea-party voters.

Brinkley has a reputation in the Senate of a smart and cordial staunch–but not certifiable–conservative. Which means, of course, that he could be in trouble with the wing of his party that demands total purity and legislative ineffectiveness to gain election.

Brinkley has just $21K in his campaign account and has not yet filed for reelection. Along with Del. Kathy Afzali (R-4A), Brinkley sought unsuccessfully to defeat Rep. Roscoe Bartlett in the Republican primary. Bartlett limped home with 44% to 20% for Brinkley and 10% for Afzali. Some may speculate that Brinkley may be getting tired of the General Assembly, though he gives every sign of planning to run for reelection.

Michael Hough has a more robust $115K in his campaign account and will make it a humdinger of a primary. Neither Brinkley nor Hough can raise funds during the session, leaving little time before the primary and giving Hough an edge. On the other hand, Hough will need to get known in a lot of new territory that Brinkley has  represented in the House or Senate since the 1994 election. Hough will try to beat Brinkley by running to his right and presenting himself as a more authentic conservative.

Only one Democrat has bothered to file for delegate in District 4 while the Republicans have three filed candidates so far: Del. Kathy Afzali ($66K on hand) and Del. Kelly Schulz ($45K) along with Mt. Airy Councilwoman Wendi Peters ($13K). David Vogt and Ken Timmerman also plan to run but has yet to file. Gaffe-prone Vogt ran for Congress but dropped out before the primary. Timmerman is moving to the district to run for the seat.

The Quinton Report sees Afzali, Schulz and Peters as the front runners, and Vogt and Timmerman as sad cases: “With Vogt getting into the race, it guarantees he will be battling it out with Ken Timmerman to see who finishes last.”

 

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