Tag Archives: Maricé Morales

2018 Elections

House of Delegates Primary Roundup Districts 1-23

The Top Line

(1) Incumbents Maricé Morales and Joe Vallario will not be returning to the House of Delegates.
(2) Will Kathleen Dumais replace Vallario as Judiciary Committee Chair?

By the District

Republican Dels. Kathy Szeliga and Rick Impallaria traded barbs during the delegate race in D7 (Baltimore & Harford). Szeliga won the first spot with 23% to 15% for Impallaria. The third nomination went to newcomer Lauren Arikan with 14%, who led Aaron Penman with 11%.

In one of the few districts with split delegations, incumbent D8 (Baltimore) incumbent Republican Joe Cluster (25%) will be joined on the ticket by Joseph Boteler (21%) and Joe Norman (19%). On the Democratic side, incumbent Eric Bromwell (31%) will run with Henry Bhandari (28%) and Carl Jackson (25%)

In District 9B (Howard), former County Councilmember and County Exec Candidate Courtney Watson is set to take on incumbent Republican Del. Bob Flanagan. Watson won the Democratic nomination with 66%,

In District 10 (Baltimore), incumbent Del. Jay Jalisi easily won renomination despite tumultuous headlines during his first term regarding a physical altercation with his daughter.

In District 15 (Montgomery), Lily Qi looks set to join Dels. Kathleen Dumais and David Fraser-Hidalgo in this comfortable Democratic seat. Dumais led with 22%. Fraser-Hidalgo, who tragically lost his wife in the middle of the campaign and had to focus on his kids and grieving, came third with 17%. Qi won 18% to 14% for Amy Friedler and 12% for Kevin Mack.

In District 16 (Montgomery), incumbent Dels. Marc Korman and Ariana Kelly easily won renomination. Samir Paul is leading Sara Love for the third seat by 118 votes, or 0.3%, with absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted.

Incumbent Del. Kumar Barve led in D17 (Montgomery) with 26% followed by Rockville City Councilmember Julie Palakovich Carr with 25%. Despite being opposed by incumbent Sen. Cheryl Kagan, Del. Jim Gilchrist easily won a third term with 20%. Kagan-endorsed Julian Haffner trailed with 13%.

In D18 (Montgomery), it looks like Adam Pagnucco called it as incumbent Al Carr led the field with 22% followed by Emily Shetty at 20% and Jared Solomon at 18%. Leslie Milano finished in fourth with 14% with Town of Chevy Chase Councilmember Joel Rubin in fifth with 11%.

In D19 (Montgomery), incumbent Maricé Morales conceded graciously as she fell into fourth place with 16% after losing the Apple Ballot. Her ticket mate, incumbent Bonnie Cullison, led the field with 21%. Making a second bid, Charlotte Crutchfield roared into second with 18% of the vote. She’ll be joined by Vaughn Stewart who came in third with 17%.

In D20 (Montgomery), the ticket of incumbents David Moon (28%) and Jhenelle Wilkins (24%) accompanied by newcomer Lorig Charkoudian (19%) easily won. The race was soured towards the end when fourth place candidate Darian Unger’s (14%) campaign manager, John Rodriguez, was caught on tape throwing out literature for the winning ticket. Unger promptly fired him.

In D21, (Prince George’s), incumbent Dels. Joseline Peña-Melnyk (30%) and Ben Barnes (25%), were renominated and it looks like they be joined by Prince George’s County Councilmember Mary Lehman (19%). Matt Dernoga (18%), who formerly worked for Lehman, trails her by 173 votes.

In D23A (Prince George’s), incumbent Del, Geraldine Valentino-Smith looks to have only narrowly beat back a challenge by Shabnam Ahmed, a former student member of the Prince George’s County Board of Education. Valentino-Smith leads by 35 votes (0.6%) with absentees and provisionals yet to be counted.

D23B was equally interesting as longtime Judiciary Chair Joe Vallario lost with 22% of the vote. He was beat by incumbent Del. Marvin Holmes (27%) and Ron Watson, a former member of the Board of Education and O’Malley political appointee. Vallario was seen as a conservative barrier to progressive initiatives in the House. Vice Chair Kathleen Dumais, an excellent legislator, should be well positioned to succeed him as Chair. However, Anne Kaiser and Kumar Barve from Montgomery already hold  powerful committee chairs, which could complicate matters for the Speaker.

 

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Adam Pagnucco, Al Carr, Ben Kramer, Bonnie Cullison, Dana Beyer, District 18, District 19, Jeff Waldstreicher

Campaign Finance Reports: Districts 18 and 19, January 2018

By Adam Pagnucco.

District 18

Delegate Jeff Waldstreicher has posted a strong financial performance in his run to succeed Senator Rich Madaleno.  He has raised more money over the cycle and has more cash on hand than any other state legislator in the county.  But Dana Beyer has spent nearly a half million dollars of her own money in her three prior races and could spend a whole lot more.  Beyer told Bethesda Magazine “she does not plan to self-finance this year’s Senate bid” but still gave her campaign $109,100.  While Waldstreicher’s cash on hand advantage is substantial, Beyer could erase it with one check.

The recent endorsement by SEIU Local 500 of Beyer may have a big impact on this race.  Prior to that, Waldstreicher could make the case to other progressive endorsing organizations that as a three-term incumbent running against someone who was for 0-3 in elections (two running against him) that he would have a big edge and was the safe pick.  But SEIU is a huge player and brings credibility to Beyer’s run.  Now the endorsing groups may be more likely to evaluate the two against each other on a level playing field and see Beyer as a true alternative.  Our prediction is that this will not be the last significant endorsement that Beyer receives.

The Delegate race is just as interesting.  Incumbent Al Carr had the most raised over the cycle but also has a huge burn rate (81%).  He trails Mila Johns and Jared Solomon in cash on hand.  Johns leads in cash position (boosted by her $100,000 loan to her campaign) while Solomon led the non-incumbents in fundraising from others ($42,011).  Emily Shetty has been a prominent local player since her fourth place finish last time, joining the county’s Democratic Central Committee and doing work with Action Committee for Transit and her former civic association.  But she doesn’t want to trail in money behind Carr, Johns and Solomon to the extent she is now.  Town of Chevy Chase Council Member Joel Rubin’s cash balance is deceptively low since he began campaigning in November and raised $269,845 in his 2016 run for Congress.  Leslie Milano created her campaign account too late to file a January report but says she plans to raise $150,000.  Helga Luest was also a late starter.  Normally, the only incumbent in a race like this – in this case, it’s Carr – would be favored for reelection.  But the challengers are a pack of hungry wolves and Carr is going to have to work to keep his seat.

The Big Question: will there be competing slates in this district?  Both Beyer and Waldstreicher have money, which is much needed by all the House candidates.  Our prediction is that any move to set up a slate by either Beyer or Waldstreicher will provoke the other side to unify too.  Competing slates aligned with contested Senate races were common in District 18 decades ago and another one could really scramble this election.

The Other Big Question: will Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez stay in the Council District 1 race, where she has not qualified for public matching funds and ranks a distant fifth in cash on hand, or will she return to the District 18 House race?

District 19

With the departure of Senator Roger Manno, who is running for Congress in District 6, Delegate Ben Kramer will become the next Senator and the dominant politician in the district.  Kramer, who was first elected to the House in 2006, is known for his work on senior issues and public safety, and has been a true hero in his efforts to crack down on drunk driving.  He has an absolute lockdown on Leisure World and Kemp Mill, two vital power centers in the district.  Kramer is not universally beloved, but he is well respected and no other politicians will mess with him.  In politics, that is enough!

The two incumbent Delegates, Bonnie Cullison and Marice Morales, will sweep virtually all the progressive endorsements and be reelected.  As for the seat being vacated by Kramer, the simple view is that former Raskin campaign aide Vaughn Stewart, who totally smoked the field (including the incumbents) in fundraising, will win it.  But the race may not be that simple.  MCDCC Member and labor attorney Marlin Jenkins did reasonably well in fundraising and should get a lot of labor support.  And attorney Charlotte Crutchfield, who barely lost to Morales for the open House seat in 2014, is running again.

Crutchfield is not a strong fundraiser, having collected just $11,960 from others last time while self-financing $44,149.  But she has a long history in the district and Kramer formed a slate with her in 2014.  Manno endorsed Morales, his former legislative aide, and Morales won by 382 votes.  Crutchfield filed an affidavit as her January report but her new campaign has just started.

The Big Question: will Kramer team up with Crutchfield again?  And if he does, will Cullison and Morales also join in?

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Baltimore City

Analysis: Democrats Must Address Baltimore or Drown Politically in the Undertow

Much debate swirls around police brutality in Baltimore and the peaceful protests then riots following Freddie Gray’s death but little discussion has taken place about the political impact of these events. Today’s post focuses on that question.

Put bluntly, it puts the squeeze on Democrats.

In the struggle over public opinion regarding police actions, many voters tend to give the police the benefit of the doubt as they value law and order and respect that it’s a tough and often dangerous job. That bias can be overcome, as in New York, if protests stay peaceful and the police overplay their hand.

In Maryland, however, the Baltimore riots are likely to hurt the Democrats among the swingy white voters who elected Gov. Larry Hogan and helped the Republicans to take the Senate nationally. Remember that the events in Ferguson were in the spotlight just before the 2014 elections.

And the effect may not be limited to whites. There is no guarantee that Maryland’s Latino and Asian voters will not be more concerned about public safety than police brutality. People of color are not a political or social monolith.

Messages that Won’t Work

Unsurprisingly, people have strong views on the police, race, and many related issues. However, some of these viewpoints have the potential to harm Democrats greatly. Critically, I emphasize that the point here is not whether the views are right or wrong but that seem likely to me to have a sharp negative political impact.

Arguments that these problems all stem from racism will only exacerbate Democratic political problems. Nobody likes being accused of being a racist–an excellent way to alienate voters appalled by the riots. Moreover, they know some of the police involved in Freddie Gray’s death are African American, as is the police chief and mayor.

Similarly, efforts to label the riots an “uprising” will strike the same voters as hopelessly out of touch (read: insane). Quotes from Democrats that appear to justify violence, like Del. Maricé Morales’ Facebook post, will be used against Democrats.

The sharp spike in the murder rate in the wake of the riots will only increase the demand for law and order. Many of the victims are African American. Charnice Milton, a promising young journalist with a moving personal story, was shot to death just a few days ago in Washington, DC when she got caught in gang crossfire responsible for many recent killings in Baltimore.

Blaming chronic neglect of the poorest parts of Baltimore won’t work either. After sixteen years of William Donald Schaefer and Martin O’Malley as Governor, it’s a hard sell that the State has not sent sufficient cash Baltimore’s way.

It doesn’t matter whether these points are correct so much as this is how many swing voters will perceive it. It’s their views that shape their votes–not how you think they should see events.

Crafting a Democratic Message

Getting a grip on this tough issue politically is going to require a clear message that doesn’t sound hedging yet addresses the very legitimate concerns of the party’s oft-divided constituencies. Borrowing a version of Tony Blair’s “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime” slogan from the 1990s might fit the bill.

Criminal behavior is unacceptable. Full stop. The recent riots stole jobs from working people and burned down housing being built by local leaders for the elderly. Violence eats at the fabric of already struggling communities.

For exactly these reasons, we need stronger policing policies that protect the rights and dignity of citizens as well as the police. We need to do it not only because it’s right but because our communities will be safer for it. Mutual lack of trust and hostility between the police and the community is a direct threat to public safety.

Crises provide opportunities for leaders. These are tough problems but addressing them can advance the party’s strong commitment to justice and to public safety. Articulating a strong message supporting both is critical to preserving public trust.

It’s more complicated that straightforward condemnations of either criminal behavior or police brutality. Fortunately, there are signs of some Democrats leading the way. See the Facebook comments by Del. Brooke Lierman (and the other legislators from D46) as well as Del. David Moon’s call to end the damaging drug war.

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General Assembly

General Assembly Racial Breakdowns

Elected to Maryland General Assembly in 2014

2014GArace

I’m in the middle of gathering data for a study on the election of African-American and Latino legislators, so I thought I’d share the data for the new Maryland General Assembly.

The Current State of Play

Minorities compose a greater share in the House than the Senate. While whites form three-quarters of all senators, they comprise two-thirds of all delegates. All minority groups are better represented in the House than the Senate.

Excepting the election of its only Asian member, Sen. Susan Lee (D-16), minority groups experienced more notable gains in the House, which saw its Latino and Asian membership more than double from 2010. New Asian delegates include Jay Jalisi (D-10), Clarence Lam (D-12), David Moon (D-20), and Mark Chang (D-32). David Fraser-Hidalgo (D-15), Maricé Morales (D-19), and Will Campos (D-47B) are incoming Latino delegates.

Partisan Gaps

Every single Asian, Latino, and Black member of the General Assembly is a Democrat. Whites remain split between the two caucuses. Interestingly, a majority of white delegates now sit as Republicans (50-43). Together, Asian, Latino, and Black delegates now form a majority of the Democratic House Caucus (47-43).

In the Senate, however, White Democrats form two-thirds of the Democratic Caucus and heavily outnumber White Republicans by 22 to 14. The greater preponderance of white Democrats stems partly from the greater success of Democrats in the Senate–all marginal seats are white majority districts.

The glaring gaps in the racial composition of the two parties reflects a national trend. African Americans have voted overwhelmingly Democratic since 1964. President Obama has increased the share of both Latinos and Asian Americans who vote Democratic. While his 43% of the white vote in 2008 exceeds that won by Clinton, Gore, or Kerry from 1992-2004, Obama won 39% of the white vote in 2012.

Racial gaps in voting are actually more muted in Maryland than many other places (i.e. more whites vote Democratic). In many southern states, blacks form a clear majority of a much smaller Democratic Caucus. Congress has no white members from a single state in the Deep South.

Assessing Racial Proportionality

American Community Survey Population Estimates

MDRaceThe ratio of representation to population depends on how you measure both population and race. While districts are drawn based on total population, only adult citizens can vote. In addition to the total population, the above table shows the voting-age population (VAP) and citizen voting-age population (CVAP).

On the Census form, people can now check multiple racial boxes (e.g. both White and Asian) and Latino is a separate category. The table includes only non-Latino Asians, Blacks and Whites who checked just one box in the appropriate category.

Minors comprise a higher share of the Black and Latino population than the Asian and White population, so the share of Blacks and Latinos among the VAP is lower than among the total population. Due to lower citizenship rates among Asians and Latinos, both groups comprise lower shares of CVAP than the VAP.

The net impact is that White Marylanders form 3.4% more of the CVAP than the total population. Latino Marylanders are 8.5% of the total population but just 5.7% of CVAP. Similarly, Asian Marylanders are a lower share of CVAP than the total population. The net effect for African-American Marylanders is almost a wash with a net gain of 0.6% in CVAP over the total population.

Changes Required for Racial Proportionality

No matter how you slice it, however, the share of Whites is higher than their share of the population in both the House and the Senate. African Americans, the largest minority group in the State, would need to add four senators and six delegates to their ranks to pull even with their share of Maryland’s CVAP.

However, Asians would need just one more senator to achieve CVAP parity in both houses. Latinos require one more senator and three additional delegates to draw even with Latino CVAP–a share still two-thirds of the Latino share of the total population.

 

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District 19

Dueling Delegate Endorsements

Crutchfiled

Maricé Morales has the support of incumbent Senator Roger Manno and Del. Bonnie Cullison for the delegate seat in District 19 being vacated by Sam Arora after one term. However, incumbent Del. Ben Kramer just endorsed Charlotte Crutchfield, which is all the more interesting because the incumbents also support each other.

From the Crutchfield campaign press release:

MD State Delegate Ben Kramer Endorses Charlotte Crutchfield for Delegate
District 19 Team Will Continue to Represent Children, Families, and Seniors in Annapolis

June 12, 2014 (Silver Spring, MD). The incumbent Democratic District 19 Team of longtime local leaders, Senior State Delegate Ben Kramer and Montgomery County Central Committee member Charlotte Crutchfield, has done much for District 19 residents and looks forward to doing even more in the future. At a crowded meeting with their supporters, the Honorable Ben Kramer and the Honorable Charlotte Crutchfield vowed to keep fighting for the citizens of District 19 and Montgomery County to make sure that every dollar possible will be returned to local improvements in this region.

“It is my pleasure to run with Charlotte Crutchfield and I know she will be a great voice in Annapolis of our friends and neighbors in District 19. She has my full support and I look forward to working side-by-side with her in the Maryland House of Delegates,” said Kramer.

Echoing the sentiment, Crutchfield said “it is an honor and privilege to stand with Ben Kramer. He is the most respected leader in our delegation, and is trusted by the people in both District 19 and Annapolis.” Continuing to assert their long and strong relationship, they both said that integrity is the most important quality in an elected official. “Anyone can tell you what you want to hear, but real leadership means standing by your word,” said Kramer.

“It has been a great campaign and I am proud to stand with Delegate Ben Kramer,” Crutchfield said. Ben Kramer has represented District 19 for eight years and is a known and trusted neighbor and friend. Both the Kramer and Crutchfield families have deep roots in Montgomery County. Ben Kramer’s father Sid was County Executive and Rona Kramer, Ben’s sister, was a two-term State Senator from Olney. Similarly, the Crutchfields have lived in Montgomery County for more than 100 years. “No other candidate in this race have ties that strong to this community. Some just moved here recently,” Crutchfield pointed out.

With a policy agenda that reflects the need to create jobs, promote equality, strengthen education, and protect the environment, both Kramer and Crutchfield have the strongest records and broadest endorsements in this race. Their team vows to keep pushing the progressive agenda forward and will work to bring a stronger economic base to the County and the State.

Ben Kramer was elected to the Maryland House of Delegates in 2006, and serves on the Economic Matter Committee. He has served on the Judiciary Committee and has passed more bills than any other member of the District 19 delegation. Kramer’s important legislative achievements have literally saved the lives of seniors through his “Silver Alert” and enhanced the quality of education for our state’s children, invested in the environment through off shore wind powered generators, and strengthened laws to punish drunk drivers. As the proud father of one daughter and two University of Maryland sons, Ben understands what families hope and sacrifice for our children. Learn more about Ben Kramer at www.BenKramer.org

Charlotte Crutchfield is the only District 19 non-incumbent to receive the coveted Sierra Club endorsement, and is endorsed by Montgomery County Council Member George Leventhal and our States Attorney John McCarthy. Elected to the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee in 2010, Charlotte has also served as President of the Glenallan ES PTA, and on the Board of Directors of Tivoli Home Owners Association. She is a member of the Montgomery County Bar Association, obtaining her BA from Howard University and her JD from Boston College Law School. She is most proud of her college Sophomore daughter and Kennedy High School son. For more information, visit www.CrutchfieldforDelegate.com

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