Tag Archives: John Astle

Adam Pagnucco, Guns, John Astle, mike miller

Who is Getting Money from the NRA?

By Adam Pagnucco.

In the wake of the latest mass school shooting, many are asking about the influence of the National Rifle Association (NRA), which is dedicated to blocking virtually all restrictions on firearms.  The NRA has not been particularly successful in Maryland, where one of the nation’s strictest gun control laws was signed by Governor Martin O’Malley five years ago.  But that has not stopped the NRA from trying to influence Maryland politicians by contributing money.

We looked up all contributions to state and local political committees in Maryland from the NRA itself and its PAC, the NRA Political Victory Fund, on the State Board of Elections website.  We identified 49 contributions totaling $22,450 from the 2006 cycle on.  Of that total, $12,300 (55%) went to Democratic committees and $10,150 (45%) went to Republicans.  Fourteen committees received $500 or more and we identify them below.  We also list the last date of contribution from the NRA; bear in mind that some folks on this list have not received NRA money in several years.

All of the above candidates were incumbents except Tim Robinson, who ran as a Republican against Senator Jim Brochin (D-42) in 2014.  Brochin was himself a former recipient of NRA money and is now running for Baltimore County Executive.  Democratic Senators Kathy Klausmeier (D-8) and Jim Mathias (D-38) are facing tough GOP challengers this cycle and have accepted NRA money in the last year.

Ten of the above recipients were in the General Assembly when the Firearm Safety Act of 2013, Governor O’Malley’s landmark gun control law, was passed after the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre.  Those voting for the bill included Senators Mike Miller (D-27) and Jim Brochin (D-42).  Those voting no included Senators John Astle (D-30), Ed DeGrange (D-32), George Edwards (R-1), Kathy Klausmeier (D-8), Jim Mathias (D-38), E.J. Pipkin (R-36) and Bryan Simonaire (R-31) and Delegate Tony O’Donnell (R-29C).

Additionally, Astle’s campaign committee actually gave money to the NRA.  In 2006, Astle’s account made a $300 expenditure to the NRA and remarked, “This membership increases Senator Astle’s visibility and allows him to network with potential voters and contributors.”

One more recipient of NRA cash stands out:  Derek Hopkins, the Republican Register of Wills in Harford County, who collected $100 from the NRA in 2010.  Perhaps this is unsurprising since mass proliferation of guns and the writing of wills seem sadly interrelated.

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General Assembly

2018 Maryland Senate Ratings, Part I

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Today, 7S unveils its first set of ratings for Maryland Senate races for the 2018 election. We’re still in the middle of our four-year cycle for state races but politicians are already thinking about 2018 based on the number of fundraising solicitations I received prior to the start of the General Assembly session.

Safe Democratic

Anthony Brown in 2014 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 carried all of the seats classified as safe Democratic. Hogan lost two Montgomery (14 and 15) districts and one Howard (13) district by five points or less, though Clinton won all by large margins. Democrats easily won these legislative districts in 2014 and Republicans lack experienced candidates to challenge them.

By my estimation, Democrats start the cycle with 24 of the Senate’s 47 seats safely in the bag. For Democrats and Republicans, the fight is not about party control by whether the Republicans can gain enough seats in either house to sustain a veto should Hogan win reelection, as Democrats have been happy to override.

Safe Republican

Both Larry Hogan and Donald Trump carried all of the districts designated as safe Republican. Democrats lost several of these Senate seats in 2014 but these were low-hanging fruit for the GOP. In D6 (Baltimore County), for example, the miracle in 2014 wasn’t that Del. John Oleszewski narrowly lost the open seat but that he came close at all, as Hogan won by 51 and Trump by 25.

Despite Hogan’s victory in 2014, Republicans performed relatively poorly in Senate races. Democrats won every single district that Hogan won by less than 37 points (!) and two more where Hogan won an even higher share of the vote. No doubt these are the seats where Republicans will concentrate their efforts.

Republicans have just 14 safe seats. However, as the Democrats hold the other 33, they have more potential targets. All of the seats that could flip are currently held by Democrats.

Toss Up

Three seats held by Democrats will be toss-up races from the start. Democrats will need to hustle to retain these seats.

District 30 (Anne Arundel County). Sen. John Astle has already announced that he intends to run for mayor of Annapolis. If he wins that office, Democrats will have an opportunity to help his replacement to settle into the seat. Otherwise, Astle could run for reelection or retire.

This seat behaved far differently in 2016 than 2014. While Hogan ran away with the election by 29 points, Trump finished ahead of Clinton by a mere six-tenths of a percent. Incumbent Sen. Astle won with 51.4% in 2014, suggesting a vulnerable incumbent or a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans if he should retire.

Hogan will unquestionably outperform Trump but we just don’t know if by less or more than last time, or if he will show any willingness or ability to translate his own vote prowess down ballot. Nevertheless, this is one Democrats will have to fight to keep even if, on paper, it is less vulnerable than District 38.

District 38 (Lower Eastern Shore). Sen. Jim Mathias is the only white Democrat elected to the General Assembly from the Eastern Shore due to his incredible political skills and repeated heavy investment by Democrats who just refuse to let go of this seat. Hogan defeated Brown by 40 points and Trump beat Clinton by 28 points in this conservative district.

Mathias always faces a tough race and won with just 51.7% in 2014 against one of his delegates. If this popular former Ocean City Mayor won in extremely tough 2014, it’d be an epic mistake to count him out in 2018’s very different political climate. If Mathias doesn’t seek reelection, Republicans would be strongly favored to pick up the seat.

District 42 (Baltimore County). Sen. Jim Brochin proudly carves his own path in the Senate. Famous for being mercurial and an undependable vote, he and Senate President Mike Miller appear to cordially loathe one another.

Brochin is the most conservative Democrat, or extreme moderate, depending upon how you look at it. He’s happy to tout his good relations and frequent support for the Governor, who invites him often to press events when other Democrats are given the cold shoulder even if they sponsored the legislation.

District 42 has a split personality as Hogan carried it by 42% but Trump beat Clinton by just 2%. Sen. Brochin has defeated strong Republicans in the past (with 51.6% in 2014), suggesting he would be a tough opponent in 2018. It would be interesting to see if the Governor would go all in against his favorite Democrat.

Brochin, however, is expected to announce his candidacy for Baltimore County Executive, leaving the seat vacant. His departure would be a boon for Republicans, though not a sure thing. Republicans would have potentially strong candidates in Dels. Aumann or West, though Democrats have Del. Lafferty.

Conclusion

As always, Democrats start with huge advantages in elections for the Maryland Senate. The Republicans have a harder task than in 2014 because they have already won just about all of the natural Republican Senate seats.

Moreover, they will face a very different political environment at the national level. No backlash against a Democratic president will bring in a Republican tide. Trump fared exceptionally poorly in Maryland and it’s not hard to imagine him mobilizing angry Democrats.

Still, Democrats hold all of the vulnerable seats, mainly due to their past success in winning in different political environments. They should view these vulnerabilities as both a call to action and a potential opportunity to mobilize in areas they need to improve not just in 2018 but also in 2020.

Next Up: Lean and Likely Democratic

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Marijuana, veto overrides

Just In: Senate Overrides Hogan on Possession of Marijuana Paraphernalia

Here’s the tally sheet. Democrats voting no are John Astle (D-Anne Arundel) and Jim Brochin (D-Baltimore County). Brochin is a regular Democratic defector but Astle is part of his party’s leadership team. No Republicans voted against the Governor. (UPDATE: I missed that Jim Mathias (D-Eastern Shore) also voted no. As always, thanks for the correction.)

Marijuana Override

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Marriott, veto overrides, voting rights

Override Thursday: Voting Rights and Marriott

Voting Rights Restoration Override Vote Postponed

The Maryland Senate special ordered (i.e. postponed) the vote on the Governor’s veto of the bill to restore the voting rights of ex-felons to a later date. The House overrode the Governor’s veto yesterday. The lead sponsors are Sen. Joan Carter Conway and Del. Cory McCray.

The Senate President stated forthrightly on the floor that this was to allow time for the appointment of a replacement to former Sen. Karen Montgomery (D-14). Rumor has it that many General Assembly Democrats are not thrilled about the timing or handling of this appointment.

Keep Marriott in Maryland

The Maryland Senate took a major step toward keeping Marriott headquarters in Maryland by overriding the Governor’s veto of a bill that requires the same tax rate levied on hotel rooms sold by third-party hotel bookers as by the hotels themselves.

This seemingly obvious fairness–the major request of the Marriott Corporation whose headquarters Montgomery County is working hard to retain–had the Governor cowering in fear that it might be cast as a tax increase. It’s evidence that the Governor’s ideological passion exceeds his desire to keep major companies in Maryland.

As the tally sheet shows, the Senate achieved the 29 votes required to override a veto with one to spare despite Sen. Montgomery’s retirement. A real victory for Senate Budget and Taxation Vice Chair Rich Madaleno who pushed hard for the bill.

Marriott OverrideTwo vote switchers from the original bill are Sen. Addie Eckardt (R-Eastern Shore) and Sen. John Astle (D-Anne Arundel). Eckardt’s switch was not surprising, as Republicans tend to want to rally around the Governor to support a veto.

In contrast, Astle is a member of the Democratic leadership team, so his vote to support the Governor was a shock. Indeed, this Montgomery blogger wonders if Montgomery Senate Democrats might return the favor by voting to uphold the veto on funding for Anne Arundel–except that the Speaker wants it.

UPDATE: Sen. C. Anthony Muse also flipped, which is interesting since Gaylord Marriott, located at National Harbor in his district, in Prince George’s made it a top priority. Additionally. Sens. DeGrange and Peters–both Democrats–switched from red on the original bill to voting to green on this vote.

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Democrats, polarization

Ten Most Conservative Democratic Senators

ConsSen

While yesterday’s post focused on the most progressive members of the Democratic Senate Caucus, today 7S looks at the most conservative Democrats using the same data provided by Boris Shor and Nolan McCarty of state legislator ideology. Remember that a more negative score indicates a more progressive senator, so the bottom of the table indicates the most conservative senators. These scores are for the legislator’s entire career in the General Assembly and include House as well as Senate service.

Interestingly, only one of the most moderate Democrats hails from Baltimore City, Montgomery, or Prince George’s County. Prince George’s Sen. Anthony Muse, who backed Larry Hogan in the Governor’s race following a quixotic primary challenge to U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin, is the seventh most conservative Democrat.

Baltimore County Sen. Jim Brochin is the most moderate Democrat, followed by Sen. Kathy Klausmeier, who also hails from Baltimore County. Sen. Bobby Zirkin, the eighth most moderate senator, is the final Baltimore County senator on the list. The other members of Baltimore County’s Senate delegation will be either African-American Democrats or Republicans. Sen. Jim DeGrange and Sen. John Astle, the fourth and fifth most conservative Democrats, represent Anne Arundel.

The final members of the list come from different counties. Sen. Jim Mathias, the third most moderate Democrat, represents the lower Eastern Shore. Sen. Mac Middleton is from increasingly Democratic Charles. Sen. Ron Young represents Frederick, a county that has become more Democratic than in the past in recent elections but went strongly for Larry Hogan.

Finally, Sen. Ed Kasemeyer, the most liberal member of this group of moderates is from Howard, a county that is now solidly Democratic in federal contests but that elected a moderate Republican, Alan Kittleman, as County Executive, and also voted for Larry Hogan.

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District 12, District 3, District 6, District 9, senate

Sleeper Senate Races?

Yesterday’s post on Senate races revealed that most contests are safely in the bag for one candidate or another but highlighted the four closest contests in the State. This afternoon, I take a look at races that are likely to go one way but have an outside potential to surprise. In truth, however, most just further illustrate the paucity of competitive Senate races in Maryland this year.

District 3: Young (D) v. Stottlemyer (R), Likely D
Over at Center Maryland, Josh Kurtz views Sen. Ron Young as a potentially vulnerable Democrat. I just don’t see it. Frederick County now has only a slight Republican lean. In the old District 3, Obama won 59% of the vote even in the old district, though O’Malley took just 48% in 2010. Redistricting shed the district’s most Republican territory, leaving it more Democratic.

In 2010, former longtime Frederick Mayor Young defeated incumbent Sen. Alex Mooney, who is now running for Congress in West Virginia. While Young has a well-funded campaign, his Republican opponent, Corey Stottlemeyer, has little cash to spend (<10K) and has sent no direct mail yet.

However, I suppose a surprisingly large Hogan wave combined with too many Youngs on the ballot–his wife, a former Frederick alderman and mayoral candidate, is running for delegate–could result in an upset. Except that it is much more likely that both members of this husband-wife team win.

District 6: Olszewski (D) v. Salling (R), Likely D
Johnny O. isn’t a character from Goodfellas or a member of a 1950s boy band. Instead, he’s a talented two-term delegate who is the junior half of a father-son political dynamic duo–Johnny O. Sr. has served on the Baltimore County Council since 1998.

In the 2010 delegate race, Johnny O. came in ahead of his fellow Democrats in this increasingly competitive district. But southeastern Baltimore County has not been immune to the attractions of GOP candidates. McCain won 54% in District 6 in 2008, and Ehrlich won 60% in 2010. Brown is not expected to perform well here.

I’d be shocked if Johnny O. didn’t become Sen. Johnny O. (J Yo?). Beyond his excellent father-son personal political brand, his opponent is not well funded. Nevertheless, a rash of straight ticket voting could possibly make this one to watch.

District 9: Frederic (D) v. Bates (R), Likely R
Democrats saw an opportunity to pick up a seat in increasingly Democratic Howard County when incumbent Sen. Alan Kittleman decided to run for county executive. But it looks likely that Del. Gail Bates, who has served in the House since 2002, will keep this district in Republican hands.

Things might have gone differently had the Democrats taken advantage of redistricting and been willing to rejigger the lines radically. However, the redistricting map kept the most Republican areas of Howard united in a single district and still contains a bit of uber-Republican Carroll County.

Though Democrat Ryan Frederic’s campaign is better funded, Bates’ campaign has had healthy financial support. Moreover, Bates’ opponent doesn’t have the name recognition or campaign experience that come from her multiple election victories.

Though Bates would probably prefer that popular Howard County Executive Ken Ulman not be #2 on the Democratic ticket, she’ll benefit from Kittleman leading the Republican charge on the local level. In a better Democratic year and with more demographic change, Frederic might have a better shot but a loss by Bates would be a real upset right now.

District 12: Kasemeyer v. Pippy, Likely D
The only reason that this district is on the likely rather than safe list is that Sen. Ed Kasemeyer won in 2010 with under 60% of the vote. However, the Chair of Budget and Tax unsurprisingly has a well-funded campaign. While Pippy has more than a token amount in his campaign account, it’s not really enough to mount a viable campaign against an entrenched incumbent.

I received some needed push back from my post yesterday declaring two seats safe for Democrats. Specifically, Sen. John Astle in District 30 has dicey turf for Democrats that will go for Hogan and Astle has had close races in the past. However, my cursory examination of campaign finance reports suggests an opponent without sufficient resources.

In District 8, Sen. Kathy Klausmeier also has swingy turf that could cause trouble for Democrats in a bad year but her opponent filed an affidavit indicating a lack of money. If the Republican Senate campaigns are more vibrant than I realize in these districts, let me know. No doubt both are concerned about an undertow due to low support for Lt. Gov. Brown in their area.

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