Tag Archives: David Blair

2022 Democratic Primary

Winners and Losers, Part II

Yesterday, Seventh State looked at the big winners from the primary but today’s post lists some people for whom the election just didn’t work out as well as they hoped.

As if it wasn’t bad enough that Progressives for Progress had a banal, redundant and misleading name, there is little evidence that this pro-development group led by Steve Silverman had much impact. Not only did David Blair lose the big county executive race but Laurie-Anne Sayles, Kate Stewart and Kristin Mink won over PfP’s preferred candidates. Councilmember Will Jawando also easily won reelection. A whole lot of money dumped to obtain many chilly receptions.

Close only counts in horseshoes. David Blair has now dumped oceans of money to get elected county executive and fallen short twice. Despite his argument that he would know how to get things done, he couldn’t seal this deal despite being an affable fellow and liberally lubricating the way with his wallet. Blair’s failure to get meaningfully involved in the county beyond donations after 2018 made it all the harder to sell himself. Lots of people who hoped to ride the Blair train are also disappointed. Hard to imagine Blair trying this again but if he does go after his white whale, his opponent can run on “Make him spend it all!”

The Republican Party made its brand so toxic nationally that even moderate Republicans like Connie Morella and Howie Denis no longer have a prayer here. But Gov. Larry Hogan showed that there was room to grow for center right candidates, as he won an impressive 44.1% in Montgomery in 2018. The nomination of fringe nutcases like Dan Cox for governor and Michael Peroutka will utterly undo this effort to create a more palatable Maryland Republican brand. Great news for Democrats running in swing districts and the party’s super majority in the General Assembly.

Saqib Ali’s uphill campaign to unseat an incumbent delegate in District 15 didn’t just lose but crashed and burned in the wake of abuse allegations. Ali once had a promising political career. But after winning election in District 39, he promptly put himself forward for the Senate opening. When MCDCC chose far more experienced Nancy King, he spent the rest of his term alienating colleagues and preparing for a close but ultimately unsuccessful challenge. Since then, he’s pursued office fruitlessly and continued to burn rather than build bridges.

Brandy Brooks seemed to have a lot going for her as she entered this campaign season. Her strong progressive message excited a major constituency in Montgomery Democratic primaries. And then it all fell apart amid serious accusations of sexual harassment. It likely would not have mattered anyway as a high burn rate left the campaign with little money.

Share
2022 Democratic Primary, Montgomery County, Montgomery County Executive

Elrich Wins. Blair Concedes Election

After losing by 77 votes four years ago, David Blair came up 32 votes short against Marc Elrich this time. Some speculated Blair would go to the courts to try and see if he could get more ballots counted, but he has sensibly chosen not to go that route. It would almost certainly have been a losing battle legally and in the public eye.

Here is the press release:

Rockville, Md., August 24, 2022 — David Blair released the following statement on the 2022 Montgomery County Executive Democratic primary election:

“Today, the Board of Elections certified the recount results of the primary election and my bid for County Executive came up 32 votes short. Earlier today, I called Marc Elrich to wish him the best over the next four years.

While we didn’t win, no doubt we pushed the conversation forward in key areas such as early childhood education, career readiness, environmental progress, affordable housing, economic development, public safety and much, much more. I wish a heartfelt thank you to our campaign team, our volunteers, and our many, many supporters. Their energy, dedication, and vision for a better Montgomery County has been truly inspiring.

I also want to acknowledge and thank the Board of Elections staff and volunteers who ensured every vote was counted and counted accurately.

While I may have come in second place in the primary, I’m blessed in life with an incredible wife, family and friends that I adore, more success than I deserve, and a deep desire to give back to the community that I call home. No doubt whatever I do next will be focused on improving the quality of life for those who call Montgomery County home.” 

Share
2022 Demcratic Primary, County Executive, Montgomery County

Recount Analysis

The Board of Elections has reported the recount results from the early vote as well as all but one of the election districts. David Blair has gained two votes and Marc Elrich has gained one vote. This is bad news for Blair as these were the two sections of the recount most likely to benefit him through closer examination of overvotes—ballots that contained more than one vote for county executive.

In the initial count, these ballots from the early and Election Day vote are run through the counting machine without closer examination. Overvotes are tallied but counted as invalid. But once in a while, closer examination can reveal that the intent of the voter is clear despite an overvote. The ballot may have an “x” through the vote for one candidate that indicates that the voter didn’t mean to vote for that person.

These sorts of ballots would have allowed Al Gore to win the 2000 presidential election.

But changes in how we vote since then have reduced the number of these ballots. During early and Election Day voting in Montgomery, voters must feed their ballots into a machine that gives voters a chance to correct mistakes if there are any overvotes. Some voters cast their ballots on machines (that create a paper record and ballot) that do not allow overvotes. The result is that fewer early and Election Day ballots contain these sorts of problems, which is why only three ballots changed..

The potential for these problems is far greater in mail-in ballots but these ballots were already assessed as they were counted. The Board of Elections has already ruled on any ballots with overvotes, following the extremely detailed set of guidelines from the state. Even though these ballots almost certainly contain a higher share of overvotes, the potential for change is quite low.

Good news for Elrich.

Share
2022 Demcratic Primary, Montgomery County

102 More Ballots in MoCo!

The Board of Elections has found an additional 102 provisional ballots that it failed to count—enough to change the outcome of the county executive race. But David Blair would have to win an outsized share of them to overtake Marc Elrich’s 42 vote lead. The ballots are from four precincts in Germantown and four in Wheaton. The Board will count the ballots and certify the election on Saturday. Then it’s on to the recount.

Here is the press release from the Board:

For Immediate Release: Thursday, August 11, 2022

MONTGOMERY COUNTY BOARD OF ELECTIONS ACTING DIRECTOR RELEASES STATEMENT ON ADDITIONAL PROVISIONAL BALLOTS TO BE COUNTED

Montgomery County’s Acting Election Director, Alysoun McLaughlin, tonight released the following statement:

“Our precertification audit identified additional provisional ballots to be counted and the Board of Elections will be unable to certify the election as scheduled at its meeting tomorrow afternoon.”

“Before asking the Board to certify any election, our staff conducts a comprehensive precertification audit. That audit includes an inspection of a random sampling of ballot envelopes and a reconciliation of the total number of voters who cast a ballot against the number of ballots scanned.”

“Today, we pulled our random sample of empty provisional ballot envelopes for audit and were unable to locate one of the randomly selected envelopes where it should have been. In addition, we were unable to resolve a discrepancy between the number of provisional ballots that our staff had recommended that the Board accept, and the number of ballots scanned.”

“Together, these two pieces of information prompted a visual search of folders where provisional ballots had been stored prior to the canvass. Those folders contained 102 unopened, sealed ballot envelopes that were never removed from their folders and presented to the canvass from the following precincts:

  •  Precinct 06-10 – 1 ballot 
  •  Precinct 06-11 – 1 ballot
  •  Precinct 06-13 – 14 ballots
  •  Precinct 06-14 – 7 ballots
  •  Precinct 06-15 – 15 ballots
  •  Precinct 13-56 – 12 ballots
  •  Precinct 13-57 – 10 ballots
  •  Precinct 13-58 – 30 ballots
  •  Precinct 13-59 – 12 ballots

“I apologize for this error and for not identifying it until today, or the remaining ballots could have been counted earlier. I want to emphasize that Maryland’s comprehensive precertification audit was designed to identify issues like this before an election is certified to ensure the accuracy of the results. It worked as intended.” 

“I will finish reviewing the rest of the audit to ensure that there are no further discrepancies before I ask the Board of Elections to certify the results of the election. The Board will meet at 3:30 p.m. on Friday, August 12, and we will discuss the findings of our audit and the schedule for canvass and certification.”

Your Voice, Your Vote!

Media Contact: Gilberto Zelaya, 240-777-8625

Share
2022 Democratic Primary, Montgomery County Executive

Corrections on the Recount Post

Montgomery County does not have DRE machines anymore, so there are no memory sticks. We do have Ballot Marking Devices (BMDs). Voters can use these to create a paper ballot with a bar code and a list of candidates for whom they voted. The Board of Elections does a sample audit to make sure the barcode accurately reflects the listed candidates.

Additionally, voters can receive ballots electronically but must mail them back printed out. These ballots are then entered on the BMDs, so every ballot has a paper trail.

Another reader pointed out that an audit resulted in added votes in a previous race. If the Board finds additional votes, as I pointed out in the previous post, this could indeed alter the result, but I expect that this is unlikely.

My basic conclusion remains the same: the recount is unlikely to alter the result. I appreciate the feedback and corrections from my readers.

Share
2022 Demcratic Primary, Montgomery County Board of Elections, Montgomery County Executive

42 Votes. Will the Recount Change the Outcome?

Probably not. Here’s why.

Ballots are cast in three different ways. Recounting them is unlikely to change matters.

The first type is cast on DRE machines that directly record the vote electronically. Adding them up again will produce the exact same results.

The second type is bubble-filled paper ballots cast at the polling place or by mail that have been inserted into machines. Those should also produce the same results with only a slightly greater but still very small possibility for change.

Some mail ballots that have overvotes (i.e. the voter filled in voters for more than one candidate). The Board of Elections has already ruled on these ballots, applying the sensible, legal standard based on the intent of the voter. For example, if a voter filled in two bubbles but put an x through Candidate A, it will be counted for Candidate B. Ballots with no clear indication of voter intent will not be counted for any candidate. The Board will apply its decisions in the same manner as during the count.

The final ballot type is votes sent in electronically. In these cases, the votes were transferred from the electronically mailed form to a paper ballot and then fed into counting machines. There is seemingly greater chance for error here except that this process was done very carefully with two separate people overseeing the copying to make sure it was done correctly. I don’t know if the recount allows for examination the copying of these votes on to paper ballots, but it is very likely to change more than a very small number of votes—fewer than needed to change the outcome.

The only potential source of change I can see is if the Board of Elections discovers a missing DRE memory stick or stack of ballots. That is also highly unlikely. One reason that the count took so long was that the Board was being extra careful due to the tightness of the county executive race.

Some of the more extreme Blair supporters (but not Blair) are calling for him to fight to get more provisional ballots included. Except that my understanding is that Montgomery has already counted a far higher proportion of provisional ballots than elsewhere—90% as compared to the 68% state average. That means there are relatively few left and those that are left were excluded for very clear legal reasons, such as the voter was not registered with the party or changed their registration too late to vote in the party’s primary this year.

Alternatively, I suppose Blair could go to court to fight to get other votes excluded. Both approaches are way to reminiscent of “Stop the Steal” for my taste. The Blair campaign has been wise to steer utterly clear of them even as it pursues its legal right and utterly reasonable request for a recount due to the tightness of the election results.

UPDATE: See new post with some corrections.

Share
2022 Democratic Primary, County Executive

Elrich Lead Now at 173

55,286 mail ballots have been counted. Incumbent County Executive Marc Elrich won them by 1,499 votes, allowing him to make up his somewhat smaller election night deficit.

The results thus far disprove the theory that later mail ballots would tend to help Blair more as they were cast after he received the WaPo endorsement and his campaign really amped up. Elrich did well in the initial sets of ballots but also the most recent sets, which overall would have been cast later. David Blair did well in between.

There are a total of 63,584 mail ballots, so around 8,000 more to count. The exact total is unclear as some undoubtedly did not vote in the primary for county executive who cast ballots. But surprisingly few, I imagine, since more voted in that contest than in the top-level gubernatorial primary (555 more by the current count). This is highly unusual as people tend to roll-off and vote less as they move down the ballot.

Of course, provisional ballots also remain to be counted. That count may go even more slowly with the need to check the eligibility of each voter. But most will be deemed eligible and counted. No idea here on who will win those critical ballots.

Share