Tag Archives: Anthony Muse

Donna Edwards, Prince George's

Worst Reason Not to Run

In the Washington Post, Arelis Hernández reports that Rep. Donna Edwards is receiving encouragement from progressive Prince George’s activists to run for County Executive. However, the possible entry of Sen. C. Anthony Muse is giving her pause:

Longtime state Sen. C. Anthony Muse, who is close to Edwards and has his own deep base of political support, has also been considering a run — one factor that could dissuade Edwards from getting into the race.

Like Edwards, Muse is touting his outsider credentials:

Although Muse has been in Annapolis since 2007, he is known for his independence from the Democratic leadership there and would also likely try to claim the outsider label.

“Muse is the only one who has built his career on standing up to the establishment,” said Wayne Clarke, a veteran political operative who is close to the senator.

Except that Muse has stood up to the Democratic establishment by opposing it from the right, not the left. In contrast to State’s Attorney Alsobrooks, a leading candidate for County Executive, Muse was a leader in the effort to fight bail reform this year:

Alsobrooks was the only state’s attorney in Maryland to publicly oppose a bill sponsored by Muse to revive the state’s cash-bail program. The legislation was denounced by progressives who had worked for years to eliminate bail for poor defendants. It passed in the Senate but died in the House.

Muse also opposed marriage equality. According to political science estimates, Muse has been the seventh most conservative Democrat in the Maryland Senate. Unlike other more conservative Democrats, Muse does not represent a swing district. Other Prince George’s Democrats are among the most liberal in the Senate.

Muse’s financial past also raises eyebrows. He led two Prince George’s churches into bankruptcy. Muse’s own financial situation looks much happier. At the time of the second bankruptcy, he owned four properties–his own home, a vacation home, a rental property in Silver Spring, and a vacant lot in Fort Washington.

Todd Eberly sees an Edwards bid as a good way to wreck revenge on the Democratic establishment, which doesn’t support her:

[t]he former congresswoman might consider it “wonderful revenge” against party leaders who embraced then-Rep. Chris Van Hollen instead of her during the Senate primary.

But Sen. Chris Van Hollen has been a progressive leader. A big part of the reason Edwards lost was that there was just not enough daylight on issues between the two candidates.

For someone who is a progressive champion, the idea that  Anthony Muse could become county executive should be seen as a reason to run–not to hit the pause button.

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Anne Arundel, Fourth Congressional District, Prince George's

CD4: Where are the Voters?

CD4

The overwhelmingly Democratic Fourth Congressional District will be open in 2016 since incumbent Rep. Donna Edwards is making a bid for the U.S. Senate rather than seeking reelection. So where do the Democrats who will vote in the primary live?

Registered Democrats by Legislative District

The Fourth CD is split between Anne Arundel and Prince George’s but 86% of registered Democrats live in Prince George’s. Former Prince George’s State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey was on the ballot repeatedly, though he has not been on the ballots since 2006.

The following table shows the number of registered Democrats as well as the number who voted in each of the four past Democratic primaries within the portion of each state legislative district included in the Fourth Congressional District.

cd4 vr1

Newly elected Del. Erek Barron (D-24) is rumored to be interested in running for the Fourth. At 21.0%, D24 has the highest share of registered voters. Though Democratic primary turnout is slightly sub par, voters in this legislative district nonetheless consistently provided over one-fifth of all voters.

District 25 does not lag far behind District 24’s voting power with 18.7% of the CD 4’s registered Democrats. This is Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown’s former legislative district. Talented Del. Dereck Davis (D-25), the powerful Chair of the Economic Matters Committee, is also said to be musing about running for the seat.

Del. Jay Walker (D-26) is openly exploring a bid. Sen. Anthony Muse (D-26) from the same district is also rumored to be thinking about it. D26 has the third highest share of registered Democrats but lags notably behind either D24 or D25 with 14.4% of CD 4’s Democrats. Moreover, turnout is often mediocre–it fell as low as 13.4% of the Fourth’s total though it reached 14.9% on the one occasion in which the share of voters exceeded registrants.

Former Del. Jolene Ivey represented District 47 under different boundaries before redistricting. The current version of D47 holds 13.4% of CD 4’s registered Democrats but turnout consistently lags. In the past four Democratic primaries, voters from D47 never comprised more than 11.9% of the voters in CD 4.

Nevertheless, Jolene Ivey, a successful and highly talented politician in her own right who ran for Lt. Governor last year, will undoubtedly be an asset to her husband Glenn Ivey’s campaign. When she last ran for the House in 2010, she came in first by a mile in a crowded primary with eight candidates.

Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk (D-21) is planning a run. Currently, she represents just 8.1% of registered Democratic in CD 4. A small base on which to build.

Registered Democrats by Legislative and County Council Districts

The second table shows the share of registered Democrats broken down by state legislative and county council district. None of the Anne Arundel Councilmembers represent more than 5% of registered Democrats in CD 4.

cd4 vr2

Prince George’s Council Vice Chair Derrick Davis (D-6)–not to be confused with the state legislator with the very similar name–represents 20.3% of registered Democrats but 64% also live in Legislative District 25. As this is declared candidate Anthony Brown’s former district and Del. Dereck Davis’s current district, competition for these voters could be fierce.

Councilwoman Karen Toles (D-7) represents 17.4% of CD 4’s registered Democrats. This district has significant overlap with Del. Erek Barron’s legislative district, as well as those of Brown/Davis and Walker/Muse. 15.5% of CD 4’s registered Dems also live in  Council District 5, held by Andrea Harrison. This district has a lot of overlap with D24 (Barron) and D47A (Jolene Ivey).

Former Council Chair Ingrid Turner has expressed interest in running for the Fourth. But she represented Council District 4. In its current incarnation, it falls almost entirely into CD 5. Just 0.8% of CD 4’s registered Dems live in District 4.

Likely Voters by State Legislative and County Council Districts

The final table breaks down the share of Democrats who voted in at least two of the past four primaries by state legislative district and county council district:

cd4 to2

This table indicates even more cleanly that Council District 6 is the heartland of CD 4’s Democratic voters. While it has less than a 3% advantage over Council District 7 in registered Dems, it has a 10.6% lead over the same district in two-time primary voters–23.8% versus 13.2%. No wonder Dereck Davis is thinking about running. (Notice also that Council District 5 leapfrogs ahead of Council District 7 in this table.)

Among state legislative districts, the biggest drop is in D47, which has 2.2% fewer two-time primary voters than registered Dems. Legislative Districts 24 and 25 have a slightly higher share of two-time primary voters than registered Democrats. But the statistics change less dramatic; the increase is 0.7% for D24 and 0.2% for D25. In contrast, the share of two-time primary voters is lower the registered Dems by 0.6% in D26.

Based on this table, the most desirable pieces of real estate to have represented before in terms of Democratic primary turnout are:

1. Maryland (Brown)
2. Prince George’s County (Ivey)
3. Prince George’s County Council District 6 (Derrick Davis)
4. State Legislative District 24 (Barron)
5. State Legislative District 25 (Dereck Davis/Brown)
6. Anne Arundel County
7. Prince George’s County Council District 5
8. State Legislative District 26 (Walker/Muse)
9. Prince George’s County Council District 7
10. Prince George’s County Council District 8
11. State Senate District 47
12. State Legislative District 33
13. State House District 47A
14. Prince George’s County Council District 1
15. State Legislative District 21 (Peña-Melnyk)

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Congress

If Donna Edwards Moves Up or On. . .

No one is saying Donna Edwards is going anywhere after working hard to get a firm hold on the Fourth Congressional District but I thought it would be fun to speculate if she left her seat open, say, during a bid for higher office. We’d have an incredibly interesting Democratic Primary on our hands. I believe that the following would likely be tempted to  run:

  • The Hon. Rev. Bishop Senator C. Anthony Muse (District 26).
  • Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker III.
  • Either former Delegate and Lt. Gov. Candidate Jolene Ivey (District 47) or Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey. Since they’re married, they’d have to flip a coin.
  • Anne Arundel County Councilman Jamie Benoit.
  • State Senator Victor Ramirez (District 47).

Each of these candidates bring there own strengths, bases and weaknesses to the race.

Senator Muse has a rock solid base in southern Prince George’s County and would be an incredibly dynamic candidate with an inspiring story of homeless to state house. I think he could raise over $300,000 but I’m not sure how much more. However, that doesn’t go far on a congressional race in the DC media market. And his quixotic challenge to Sen. Ben Cardin went nowhere.

County Executive Baker is very popular in Prince George’s County, which makes up two-thirds of MD-04. He would start out the heavy favorite. It would be interesting to see how he departs from his usual donor base of developers who care much less about the next freshman member of Congress than County Executive. However, I think he could raise if not $2 million dollars, close to it.

Jolene Ivey was an incredibly dynamic and impressive running mate for Doug Gansler. She would be an immensely strong candidate and could raise around $1 million. She has a solid base in the 47th Legislative District, which would be completely fractured if both she and the Senator from that district, Victor Ramirez, ran.

Glenn Ivey was a popular prosecutor and an immense political talent. He also has a thick political rolodex stretching from Capitol Hill to Prince George’s to Annapolis and Baltimore. I think he could raise an even million. His short-lived congressional bid in 2012 may hurt him and his wife’s profile is much higher. Likely neither will have Anthony Brown’s support.

Jamie Benoit is a popular County Councilman, a veteran and the Chief Executive of a rapidly growing business. He was heavily recruited by state Democrats to run for Anne Arundel County Executive but bowed out (and retired from the Council) to focus on his business. He also toyed with the idea of running for Congress in MD-04 in 2012. If he could galvanize his base in Anne Arundel County and appeal to white voters in Northern Prince George’s, he might have an outside  shot. But without self funding he wouldn’t have the resources to get his message out–perhaps a quarter million dollars. If he self funded, he could perhaps get that number up to 500k-750k.

Victor Ramirez is a popular and charismatic State Legislator. He is also the undisputed voice of Prince George’s County’s (and perhaps Maryland’s) rapidly exploding Latino population. If he could mobilize that constituency, he’d have an outside shot at winning a plurality victory in this crowded primary.

Rating: Lean Baker

And who knows who else might run? Maybe an Al Wynn comeback bid? Did I miss anyone? Did I miss you? Email johnga.ems@Gmail.com with tips.

 

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District, Prince George's

Turner-Valderrama-Sloan Form D26 Unity Slate

D26SlateDel. Kris Valderrama, Candidate David Sloan and Del. Veronica Turner

Del. Veronica Turner’s bid to unseat incumbent Sen. Anthony Muse just got a major shot in the arm. Together with Del. Kris Valderrama and David Sloan, Turner has formed the District 26 Unity Slate.

As I explained in my profile of the D26 Senate race, the alliance with Sloan had been rumored for awhile. Valderrama’s participation also does not shock. In 2010, Muse did not endorse Valderrama and then accused her of disseminating misleading information about him.

Like Turner, Valderrama is perceived as more progressive than Muse. Both Turner and Valderrama backed marriage equality despite Muse’s fierce opposition and criticism. Del. Jay Walker joined Muse in speaking at a tea-party organized rally against it.

Walker is supporting Tony Knotts for delegate so this seems a tacit rival to the formally announced D26 Unity Slate, as only three people can win election as delegate. I don’t know if Walker or Knotts are running with Muse. Though this would seemingly be the logical next step, the presence of five other candidates besides Valderrama and Sloan may complicate matters.

The District 26 Unity Slate held their first event on Monday at Mrs. Philippines Home and will hold their office opening on April 12th. The ticket works to the advantage of all the candidates as they benefit from mutual support and can multiply the impact of money and canvassing by working together. Of course, they also lend each other credibility in their campaigns.

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2014 Elections, Prince George's

Turner Takes on Muse in Prince George’s D26

D26Prince George’s District 26

District 26 in southwestern Prince George’s County is 78 percent black in voting-age population. These days, it’s perhaps best known for Prince George’s showcase National Harbor development, soon to be home to Maryland’s MGM Casino.

Sen. Anthony Muse is facing a tough fight for a third Senate term. Muse first won a term in the House of Delegates in 1994 and then narrowly lost a challenge to Sen. Gloria Lawlah, the first African-American elected to the Senate from this district, in 1998.

Muse ran for County Executive in 2002 but came in third with just 19% of the vote. He beat Del. Obie Patterson in 2006 with 55% to win the Democratic nomination for Senate. (Patterson now represents County Council District 8.) In 2010, Muse faced no significant opposition. Muse ran a quixotic campaign against U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin in 2012, taking just 16% of the vote and failing to carry his home county.

In 2014, Muse faces a tough challenge from Del. Veronica Turner, first elected in 2002. Two other candidates have also jumped into the race, Jerry Mathis and Brian Woolfolk.

Mathis, a former member of Prince George’s Community College Board of Trustees, won only 13% in his unsuccessful bid for the 2010 Democratic nomination for the District 8 Council seat. He seems unlikely to be a factor, especially since he has no campaign account (or at least I cannot find it in the database). However, he probably holds a grudge against Muse for filing a bill designed to stop him from running for the County Council in 2010.

Brian Woolfolk is an attorney who previously worked for Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA), who is viewed as a smart and highly competent Member of Congress, and as Counsel to the House Judiciary Committee. Woolfolk has $50K in his campaign account with $45K of the $65K raised in the form of a loan to his campaign. In contrast, Muse has $52K in his campaign account while Turner has $25K.

As the leader of a 2000-member church in his district and an incumbent who has appeared on the ballot many times, Muse would seemingly go into this race with a strong advantage. His wife, popular NBC4 Anchor Pat Lawson Muse, is also a major asset to his campaign.

Except that his church has now had to file bankruptcy. Muse blamed the problems on the struggles of the church’s middle-class members during the recession. But Muse’s previous church also filed for bankruptcy in the 1990s at the height of the economic boom after getting mired in $6 million of debt. Among the current church’s major debts are $610,000 owed to Muse and his wife, which includes loans they made to the church.

One can imagine Turner recruiting support from the many people Muse has tangled with over the years, such as Gov. O’Malley, Sen. Cardin and Councilmember Patterson, who might not sorry to see him lose. Muse is also one of the more conservative members of the Senate. He opposed Gov. O’Malley’s wind power initiative and marriage equality, so Turner may attract support from progressives.

An additional boost for Turner is that she is rumored to be quietly forming a slate with David Sloan, tipped as the most promising of the non-incumbents running for delegate.

Support from the other incumbent delegates–incumbent Del. Kris Valderrama and Del. Jay Walker are both running– could also help either Muse or Turner. I have no information here; as always, please post on Facebook if you do. Of course, they could also choose to join neither ticket. Valderrama and Muse have not always had a strong relationship, so I don’t see her as a lock to slate with Muse. Alliances often change over time though, so who knows?

The number of candidates could prove a barrier for Turner in unifying the anti-Muse vote. Woolfolk is a new candidate but can bring money to bear on the race and has a solid credentials. Mathis should not be a factor but may grab a few votes.

At the same time, Turner has been on the ballot several times, so she undoubtedly has her own network of positive supporters who will rally to her. In other words, her campaign is not merely centered on unifying those tired of Muse. Moreover, women will make up a heavily disproportionate share of the electorate.

Interestingly, Turner is listed as one of Brown’s endorsers while Muse is not. Her support for Brown could work to her advantage if Brown does well in this district on primary day.

I need more information to get a more informed sense if this one leans one way or another yet. I tend to think it is between Muse and Turner, and that either could win, but it will be interesting to see if Woolfolk gains traction. Rating: Toss Up.

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