False alarm. Turns out he was photobombing his colleague to wink at his mother who likes to watch him on C-SPAN. Kind of sweet and yet creepy all at the same time. Is there a word for that?
Tag Archives: Andy Harris
MD-01 Tea Leaves
Being a member of Congress is as good as it gets in the Maryland Republican Party. I believe Andy Harris will hold this seat for a very long time. However, you never know . . . so maybe this seat will one day be vacant. Here’s who I think might be in the mix:
Ocean City Mayor Rick Meehan–While a well-known and popular figure on the Lower Shore, Rick has the disadvantage of never having run for anything except for municipal office. Municipal elections in Maryland tend to be low key, low budget affairs. I’m also not confident in his fundraising potential. However, the Salisbury media market is so cheap that even half a million might be enough to wage a real campaign.
Delegate Mike McDermott–Currently challenging Jim Mathias for the District 38 State Senate seat, I’ve heard him discussed as a potential primary challenger to Andy Harris. I’m sure he’d run in an open seat situation. With more fights under his belt after this cycle than most Maryland pols, he could raise at least 500k (which is a competitive sum in this type of Republican primary).
Before he resigned, I’d have rated self funding multimillionaire State Senator EJ Pipkin as the man to beat. But he’s moved to Texas to get a Master’s in Sports Management. Then there was District 37 Senator Richard Colburn (who had challenged then Congressman Wayne Gilchrist in a past election), but he was defeated in the primary by Delegate Addie Eckhart (who now represents 1/5th of the district) and would be wise to take a shot at this seat if she wants to move up further before moving out.
The most dynamic potential candidate by far is soon to be former Delegate Jeanne Haddaway-Riccio, Harford County Executive David Craig’s running mate in his failed gubernatorial bid. The very smart, photogenic former Minority Whip might very well be the choice of national Republicans and could raise $1 million dollars (a substantial sum in this rural district).
Former Bush Administration official Mary Beth Corrrazzo (who I think will cruise to victory in her Lower Shore subdistrict against former Teacher Judy Davis) would be another incredibly dynamic candidate. I believe she could raise up to $2 million, a crushingly large sum here. She would be an even likelier choice for national Republicans.
Former Harford County Executive David Craig would be a strong candidate. A little dull and more moderate than the Republican Primary electorate, but still a very strong candidate from the suburban Baltimore piece of the district.
On the Democratic side, the bench here is weak and we normally end up with sacrificial lamb candidates given the district’s current configuration. Former Congressman Frank Kratovil might be enticed to run in an open seat but would he really give up a judgeship for what is at best a dicey proposition? The former representative would, however, turn this into a hotly watched race. Kratovil raised just over $2 million dollars in 2010 and I expect he could hit that mark once again.
Former Republian Congressman Wayne Gilchrist is far too liberal (he endorsed Heather Mizeur, the Delegate from the Democratic People’s Republic of Takoma Park, for Governor in the Democratic Primary for Governor) to win a GOP Primary. He’d be welcomed with open arms by the DCCC and could raise the $1.6 million it takes on average to win a congressional seat.
The dominant rumor in the state for the last few weeks has been that soon to be former Montgomery County Delegate Heather Mizeur intends to challenge Andy Harris from her organic farm in Kent County. This is too ridiculous for my tastes. I think she could raise $1.25 million (what she raised for Governor pre-match). I also think she’d lose by twenty points.
District 38 State Senator Jim Mathias would be a stronger candidate with deeper roots in the district and if the DCCC got involved (which I think they would), could raise well over $1 million dollars. But any Democrat would find it very tough to win this heavily Republican turf.
Oddly Competitive Primary in MD CD1
Let us be clear here: No one running in the Democratic Primary for Maryland’s First Congressional District has any realistic shot at beating Andy Harris. Frank Kratovil’s victory in 2008 required a perfect storm (and Kratovil lost by double digits in 2010). The district was made even more Republican in the most recent round of gerrymandering (trading swingy Anne Arundel Precincts for dark red territory in Carroll, Baltimore and Harford Counties). Andy Harris will likely hold this seat until 2022 when Mike Miller decides to eliminate the last Republican in Maryland’s congressional delegation via redistricting.
All that being said, two exceptionally strong candidates are duking it out for the right to be the standard bearer for the Team Blue come November.
On one side you have John Laferla–a surgeon and former Chairman of the Kent County Democratic Central Committee. He narrowly lost the 2012 Primary to Made in America Activist Wendy Rosen (who subsequently dropped out following allegations that she had committed voter fraud). During the primary, he received endorsements from NARAL Pro Choice MD, Planned Parenthood, former US senator John Breaux and former Republican MD-01 Congressmen Wayne Gilchrist. Following Rosen’s withdrawal Laferla ran with the party blessing as a write in candidate. My spies tell me Laferla has retained Dave Goodman of Trublu Politics as his Direct Mail Consultant.
The other candidate is Bill Tilghman–a wealthy retired attorney (Piper Marbury now DLA Piper) and business executive with Marriott. He has also been involved in several start ups. The Tilghman family has been historically been prominent on the Eastern Shore. Tilghman has a highly qualified Finance Director and my spies tell me he has hired Main Street Communications as his Media Consultant.
Both would be far stronger nominees than one would expect to see in this district. It is unclear who has the edge here.
Primary Rating: Toss Up.
General Election Rating : Safe Republican
Rorschach Map of Incumbent Desires
Much has been made of the, ahem, “creative” boundaries of Maryland’s current congressional districts. A previous post provided more detailed maps that show the true artistry of the districts. But here is a statewide view that probably doesn’t do it full justice:
Maryland’s Current Congressional District Map
Many cite the non-compact boundaries as evidence of partisanship. Certainly, the 6th District was reconfigured to aid Democrats, who picked up the seat in 2012. However, Democrats did not have to draw these non-compact districts to gain a 7-1 majority in place of the previous 6-2 split. The following plan has seven districts that Obama won by 15% or more in 2008:
Alternative Congressional Plan 1
While probably not the most compact plan that could be drawn, it also is clearly much more compact than the enacted plan. Beyond containing seven very Democratic districts, it also still contains two districts that are over 50% black in voting-age population.
A map that gave Democrats at least a 10% advantage in seven districts, again as measured by support for Obama in 2008, could be made even more compact and violate fewer county boundaries:
Alternative Congressional District Plan 2
In this version, District 8 doesn’t reach the Pennsylvania border or take in any portion of Carroll County, which is no longer split. The Fourth District is also entirely within Prince George’s. Montgomery County has only two districts instead of three.
So why did the Democrats choose to adopt a plan with such meandering districts instead of a simpler version? According to many different sources, the answer lies in the desire to favor the preferences of certain incumbents, even when they were highly idiosyncratic and would not alter their reelection chances.
(1) Rep. Steny Hoyer insisted on continuing to represent UMD College Park, which he has represented since entering Congress. (Love the Turtle!) However, College Park is at the northwestern end of Prince George’s. Accommodating the desires of this powerful representative forced many other changes to plan.
For example, the 4th couldn’t continue to go into Montgomery if the 6th was to take in significant portions of that County, so the 4th now crawls around the edge of Prince George’s to enable it to scoop up Republican voters in Anne Arundel.
(2) Similarly, Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger sits on the intelligence committee and wanted to represent both Fort Meade and the Aberdeen Proving Ground. (Couldn’t we just buy him his own spy cam?) Even more creativity ensued as these two facilities lies at the opposite ends of the Baltimore region
(3) Rep. Elijah Cummings did not want to represent Carroll County, throwing yet another complication into the mix. Carroll is very Republican but would have easily been swamped by Cummings’ Baltimore base. So now Rep. Chris Van Hollen represents parts of Carroll County.
(4) Rep. John Sarbanes felt strongly that he wanted to continue to represent Annapolis, adding another layer of complexity into the plan’s requirements. Drafting a plan to satisfied this demand along with Ruppersberger’s helps explain how the 2nd and 3rd districts took on even more convoluted shapes.
(5) Complicating it all further was that so several representatives–Cummings, Harris, Ruppersberger, and Sarbanes–live with a small area near Baltimore. While living in the district is not required–just ask John Delaney–most prefer to do it.
And that’s how we ended up with this:
By the way, there is no legal impediment to gerrymandering for incumbents. Indeed, courts have cited it as a legitimate rationale for states to craft plans in a particular manner.
Top Ten Senate Primaries II: District 36
2010 Stephen Hershey Mail Piece
Part I in this series is here.
District 36 (R): This one is a complete grudge match between Sen. Stephen Hershey and former Del. Richard Sossi. Hershey beat Sossi, a two term delegate, by just 124 votes out of 10,774 cast in the 2010 Republican delegate primary.
Unique among all districts in the state, voters in District 36 may not cast a vote for more than one delegate from each of the four counties in the district. Hershey and Sossi are both from Queen Anne’s, so their primary was a head-to-head contest between them among Republicans across the entire district.
If imitation is the best form of flattery, then Sen. Nancy King has reason to be pleased. Hershey copied her Sleepy Saqib mail pieces (see above). Despite having two terms under his belt and a large money advantage, Sossi lost thanks to what he describes as labelled “a smear campaign.”
In the meantime, Hershey has continued to move up in the world. When E.J. Pipkin decided to leave not just the Senate but the State, many, including Hershey, Sossi, and Del. Michael Smigiel, applied for the vacancy.
Eastern Shore District 36
Vacancies are usually chosen by the county party central committees of the party that held the seat. Four Republican Central Committees–Cecil, Caroline, Kent and Queen Anne’s–were involved in the decision. However, two voted to support Smigiel while two others supported Hershey, so Gov. O’Malley got to make the final choice between the two men.
O’Malley stated he picked Hershey due to his broader support in the last election but others speculate that Smigiel never had a shot due to his implacable opposition to O’Malley’s gun legislation. Smigiel vowed to run for the seat but ended up filing for reelection.
Between leaving the House and filing for the Senate seat, Sossi served as Congressman Andy Harris’ liaison to the same four counties that he represented as a delegate–not a bad job for someone seeking to return to office.
Hershey has the money advantage–$38K to $28K for Sossi–but Sossi can attempt to close the gap during the session. He’ll also have more time to campaign with no day job. At the same time, it’s hard to overlook that he’s damaged goods after having lost and failing to gain the endorsement of any county central committee.
One potential boost to Sossi would be if Rep. Harris endorsed his former employee. But so far, Harris has not tipped his hand in the press and has made no donation to either candidate. Sossi would also gain if his former delegate colleagues agreed to slate with him. I have no information on that front (feel free to post on Seventh State’s Facebook page).
Right now, it’s hard to see why–having turned him out of office–the voters would turn back to Sossi over a candidate who is now stronger as an incumbent. Rating: Lean Hershey.