Tag Archives: Will Smith

The Next Senator from District 20

The battle to replace Jamie Raskin in the State Senate is currently the object of much speculation but the logical and likely appointment by the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) seems obvious: Del. Will Smith.

All three sitting Montgomery senators who gained that office via appointment were already delegates: Craig Zucker in District 14, Brian Feldman in District 15, Nancy King in District 39. Each had served at least one full term in the House before moving to the Senate.

Beyond experience, selection of a delegate also make sense because the exact same constituency has already elected them to the General Assembly. The three delegates are not just the most obvious but most democratic choices.

Among the three delegates, Del. Sheila Hixson could have it if she wanted it but doesn’t. That leaves Del. David Moon and Del. Will Smith. Both are former campaign managers for Sen. Jamie Raskin’s past campaigns and won election in 2014.

Prior to their election, highly diverse District 20 had an all white state legislative delegation. The election of Korean American Moon and African American Smith changed that. Beyond personal ties, Sen. Raskin and Del. Hixon’s desire to diversify the delegation no doubt played a role in their joint endorsements of Moon and Smith.

The Montgomery County Democratic Party remains interested in promoting greater racial diversity in the delegation. MCDCC will be under enormous pressure to take this into account during its deliberations.

This factor weighs heavily against David Moon. No African American has ever won election or appointment to the Senate from Montgomery County. According to the Census, African Americans now form roughly 19% of the County’s population.

In contrast, there is currently one Asian American Senator–District 16 Sen. Susan Lee. She forms one of eight, or 12.5%, of the Montgomery County Senate delegation–not far off the estimated 15% of the County’s population that is Asian American.

There are currently three African Americans (Dels. Al Carr, Pam Queen and Will Smith) and four Asian Americans (Dels. Kumar Barve, Aruna Miller and David Moon along with Sen. Susan Lee) in the entire Montgomery state legislative delegation, so African Americans have less overall representation in terms of absolute numbers and percentages.

David Moon has advocated for increased minority representation in the General Assembly. He has promoted minority candidates and helped to pass along his considerable campaign skills. Nonetheless, the logic of these very ideas will work against him in a jurisdiction and party attuned to racial balance, especially since District 20 has the highest share of African Americans in the County.

Other African Americans have thrown their hat into the ring, notably former County Councilmember Valerie Ervin and Will Jawando. Both are well qualified but have political strikes against them that mitigate against an appointment over Smith.

Ervin has touted that her appointment would be a double win, as her appointment would bring the share of women in the Senate delegation to parity. However, she abandoned her seat on the County Council before the end of her term to take up another job, which annoyed many activists.

Additionally, Ervin supported Edwards for Senate–not the popular position in Montgomery. While this is not nearly as problematic as her resignation, Ervin’s quotes in the media expressing ambivalence about endorsing Van Hollen in the immediate aftermath of the election are much more damaging.

Jawando faces an uphill climb for different reasons. Smith beat him for a delegate seat in 2014. Why should MCDCC second guess the choice of the voters? Second, after losing that race, he made a quixotic bid for the congressional seat against Raskin.

If Jawando had supported Raskin, he would have been very well positioned for the delegate seat. Opposing Raskin, who has long had very strong support among this same constituency, has made winning that seat far more difficult, especially since he received even fewer votes in his congressional bid than his delegate race.

Share

Jamie Raskin for Congress?

Jamieraskin

Sen. Jamie Raskin (D-20) is widely considered a lock to enter the race for Maryland’s Eighth Congressional District.

Getting Elected in District 20

Jamie Raskin was first elected to the Senate in 2006 in an impressive defeat of longtime incumbent, Sen. Ida Ruben. Though Raskin was a first-time candidate, he beat Ruben by 2-1 thanks to a strong campaign and grassroots organization.

It also didn’t hurt that Chris Van Hollen notably did not endorse Sen. Ida Ruben, who had not supported him in his original congressional bid in 2002. Since the 2006 Democratic primary, Raskin has been untouchable in this district.

Two of Raskin’s previous campaign managers, David Moon and Will Smith, have now joined him on the House side. Raskin remains very popular and a solid fit for this district, correctly perceived as the most progressive in Maryland.

In the Senate

Jamie made the transition from law professor at American University to politician in the Maryland Senate more smoothly than some likely expected. He worked well with his colleagues and  became a leader on the Judicial Proceedings Committee.

Currently, Sen. Raskin heads the Executive Nominations Committee. He is also serves as Majority Whip and is a past Chair of the Montgomery County Senate Delegation.

His work has unsurprisingly focused more on issues related to his committee. Sen. Raskin was a robust supporter of marriage equality. In this session, he is focusing much of his efforts on campaign finance trying to make the system more transparent in the wake of the disastrous Citizens United decision, which opened the floodgates of soft money into American politics.

One of the more loquacious members of the Senate, he is excellent at arguing for his point of view and parrying his opponents. Jamie’s passionate progressive views have also not prevented him in working with others to move forward even if the product is less than ideal from his perspective.

All of these issues and skills would transfer well to Congress, even if he would likely have to get used to operating as part of the minority instead of the majority. There is a reason that lawyers are not lacking in Congress or Washington even if Washingtonians can tell lawyer jokes with the best of them.

Campaign and Competition

Jamie cannot self finance but he is well-positioned to raise a lot of money. His profile extends beyond the local level–and not just because his spouse, Sarah Bloom Raskin, has served on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and is now Deputy Secretary of the Treasury.

Moreover, many of Jamie’s originals supporters are still very active in politics and eager to support his congressional bid. As he showed in 2006, he is quite capable of putting together an organized grassroots campaign.

District 20 has one of the richest pockets of Democratic voters in the State, though fewer than District 16 and similar in number to neighboring District 18. Raskin’s district would serve as a fine base for a congressional run.

Overlap with Other Candidates

Jamie Raskin will be a top-tier candidate. He shares a similar political profile with Rich Madaleno. Both are white males and strong progressives based in neighboring southern Montgomery County districts. They’ve worked closely together in the Senate on many issues. Either would benefit if the other does not run.

Share

Superstars in Waiting: The Freshman Democratic House Class

Without an unprecedented General Election upset, the following Democratic nominees for House Seats will be sworn into the General Assembly for the 2015 Session. These legislators show particular promise:

1) Brooke Lierman – The new face of South Baltimore is young, white, wealthy and progressive. Brooke is all of these things (And DC powerhouse Terry Lierman’s daughter). Despite a convenient last name, she fully deserves her seat in the House on her own merits (going back to the campaigns of Paul Wellstone and Howard Dean) up to her present day practice as a civil rights lawyer.

2) Erek Barron – An Attorney at Whiteford, Taylor & Preston, the newest addition to the District 24 Delegation has tremendous statewide potential. A former prosecutor (as an ASA in Prince George’s and Baltimore City as well as at the Department of Justice) who worked for then US Senator Joe Biden on Capitol Hill, Erek has as sterling a resume as any legislator. He also has an easy going charm and keen intelligence. Bonus Points: he played foot ball at College Park.

3) Marc Korman – This Sidley Austin Attorney and former Capitol Hill Staffer (not to mention a former blogger at Seventh State predecessor Maryland Politics Watch) has always been the smartest guy in the room–and that definitely won’t change when he gets to the Lowe House Office Building.

4) Andrew Platt – A very, very sharp former US House Leadership staffer cruised to victory and is set to become the youngest legislator in Annapolis. He has future leadership written all over him.

5) Cory McCray This East Baltimore IBEW Leader is charming and exceedingly genuine. He ran an incredibly strong campaign this year and is sure to rise quickly in Annapolis as a powerful voice for working families in the state.

6) David Moon – Attorney and Political Operative David Moon is sure to establish as a liberal lion in the legislature as he marries his communication skills with sharp progressive politics. He will represent his new constituents in Takoma Park well.

7) Will Smith – Despite (perhaps unduly harsh) criticism of his campaign budgeting decisions on this blog (by me), Will Smith cruised to victory on June 24th with the help of a slate led by Jamie Raskin. His future in this state couldn’t be brighter.

These are the future County Executives, Congressman, MGA Committee Chairs, Attorneys General, Comptrollers, Lieutenant Governors of the coming 10-15 years.

Note: This post was modified from the original version because Candice Quinn Kelly lost her close race.

 

Share

Hixson Endorses Smith, Moon

The day after Sen. Jamie Raskin endorsed Will Smith and David Moon for delegate, longtime incumbent Del. Sheila Hixson has done the same

Dear Friends

This has been an exciting primary season in District 20 and we have seen a wonderful group of candidates step forward and ask to represent District 20 in Annapolis. Making the decision to run for public office is not easy and I believe it takes personal courage and a great commitment to your community to do so. You open yourself  to the judgment of your fellow citizens as you lay out your vision for the future, and believe me, District 20 is filled with strong, well-articulated opinions on most topics!

I have watched all of the candidates put themselves forward  and express hopes and aspirations for our District, our County, and our State. After attending one of our candidate forums,  a friend from North Carolina said to me, “Heck we would take any one of them!” All the candidates have a lot to proud of, and I am sure all of them will continue to contribute to our community.

But this is politics and difficult choices have to be made. The question for me is which of these excellent candidates best reflect the values and diversity of District 20 and demonstrate an ability to move from being an advocate of a particular view to being a representative of many views?

The two candidates that I feel best meet these qualities and the progressive values and diversity of District 20 are Will Smith and David Moon.   I am proud to endorse them, and as I have learned a thing or two about how Annapolis works, I will proudly serve with them and support them as they learn the ropes of being a State delegate. The District 20 delegation has enjoyed a formidable reputation as a cohesive and very effective legislative team. This effectiveness will continue with Will and David joining Jamie Raskin and me as we continue to fight for what is right and fair.

I have known Will Smith for more than five years now, and I am increasingly impressed by this young man. Born and raised in Silver Spring, the first member of his family to graduate from college, he has a very impressive background as a lawyer and scholar with undergraduate and law degrees from the College of William and Mary and a Masters degree in public policy from Johns Hopkins University.  He continues to serve our country as an officer in the Naval Reserves, and recently served as an appointee in the Obama administration.  But more than that, Will has had “boots on the ground” in our community. Will established the Youth Achieve Scholarship Fund, raising thousands of dollars for scholarships for young people from our community. He is active in GapBuster Learning Center, and is a Board Member for the Gandhi Brigade, IMPACT Silver Spring, and  the NAACP Montgomery County Chapter. Will speaks eloquently about the public policy challenges of our State, from education and solving the achievement gap, to business development and job creation. He has an impressive knowledge of policy details and is an astute analyst of the costs and benefits involved in policy implementation.  I would welcome Will Smith as  a partner on the District 20 team.

David Moon is an intense, accomplished political and community activist. He holds progressive ideals close to his heart and is willing to stand up and fight for his values. As he says, he “is not waiting for Superman”. David is a civil-rights lawyer and an influential activist in issues that impact our community. He has run political campaigns in which he proved to be an adept strategist and master of social media. He has worked on issues such as the Dream Act and voter registration with Casa de Maryland and has developed an expertise in mass transit as Executive Director of Communities in Transit. For several years,  his political blog, Maryland Juice, has been a must-read analysis of political developments in Montgomery County and around the state. He knows District 20 from the ground up.  Now he is ready to take the next step as a member of the House of Delegates in Annapolis representing our wonderful diverse district. I will be very proud to serve with David Moon and Will Smith and I offer them both my heartfelt endorsement.

Delegate Sheila Hixson, D-20
Ways and Means Committee

Share

Raskin Endorses Moon and Smith, Defends Shurberg

In a major boost to their campaigns, incumbent Sen. Jamie Raskin has endorsed David Moon and Will Smith for the two vacant delegate seats in District 20. Both Moon and Smith had managed one of Jamie’s earlier campaigns. Previously, Jamie had already endorsed incumbent Del. Sheila Hixson.

Despite not endorsing him, Raskin also defended Jonathan Shurberg against attacks on him for having been suspended temporarily from the practice of law for co-mingling client funds with his own:

Because of my allergy to negative politics, I have been unhappy about the imbalanced ad hominem attacks (not coming from District 20) on my friend and Delegate candidate Jonathan Shurberg. While he was found to have negligently misappropriated client funds, he was punished for it, no clients were harmed, and all funds were restored. In my opinion, this event should be viewed in the context of Jon’s significant public contributions to our community . . .

Raskin’s endorsement of David Moon:

Born in Takoma Park to Korean immigrants, David Moon has had an unusually effective career as a grassroots political organizer, civil liberties and civil rights policy consultant and attorney, and founder of the awesome political blog Maryland Juice, which was named one of the nation’s best by the Washington Post.  A champion of insurgent reform politics, David volunteered to manage my underdog campaign for the Senate in 2006 and, through many sleepless nights and by precocious mastery of the new social media, built the organizational infrastructure for the movement that changed Montgomery County politics forever.  Recognized for his dazzling political mind and devotion to social justice in our community, David went on to run numerous successful campaigns at the county and state level. He also used his formidable political skills to mobilize thousands of Marylanders to defend at the polls our legislative victories on marriage equality and the Dream Act. What impresses me most about David is his wonderful modesty, his passion for service to our community, and his love of making both democracy and new technology work for all.  He will make an exceptionally able and faithful servant to Silver Spring and Takoma Park in the House of Delegates, and I support him with pride.

Raskin’s endorsement of Will Smith:

Born at Holy Cross Hospital in Silver Spring, the son of a Barwood taxi driver and a civil servant at GSA, Will Smith is the first person in his family to graduate from college, a gifted lawyer and former legislative assistant at the ACLU of Washington, a passionate Democrat, a U.S. Naval Reserve Officer and Obama administration appointee, and a young person of awesome intellect, character and commitment.  In 2010, Will ran the combined campaign of the District 20 Delegation (Delegates Hixson, Hucker, Mizeur and myself), and in that capacity I got to know him as a zealous advocate for the young people of Silver Spring and Takoma Park.  An active Board Member for the Gandhi Brigade, IMPACT Silver Spring, the NAACP Montgomery County Chapter, and GapBuster Learning Center, Will established the Youth Achieve Scholarship Fund, which has raised tens of thousands of dollars for college scholarships for young people in our community.  As a Delegate, Will promises to fight hard to promote educational excellence for all of our kids, accelerated school construction in Montgomery County, and criminal justice reform, especially passage of the “Second Chance Act,” a measure to shield from public scrutiny marijuana possession and other nonviolent misdemeanor convictions several years after a person completes his term; with Will’s urging, I introduced the Second Chance Act in 2014 and we passed it in the Senate this Session but it languished on the House side.  I know that, as a Delegate, he will not rest until he gets the job done. I also know that he will stay in close touch with our community groups and neighborhood associations because he is totally accessible and responsive; my friend Paula Kowalczuk remembers him coming to register voters for several hours on the weekend when he was in high school! I have great confidence in Will and support him with pride and excitement for the future.

Share

A Competitive General in . . District 20?!

No Republicans hold office in Montgomery County at the county, state, or federal levels. However, in the bluest facet of this sapphire, a challenger of some credibility has emerged. In District 20, former Takoma Park City Councilman Dan Robinson has filed to run in the general election on the Green Party line. If there is a legislative district in Maryland where the Green Party is viable, it would be the ultra-progressive district home to nuclear free Granola Park.

How serious a challenger Dan is remains to be seen. Most Green Party targeted campaigns raised $20,000-$30,000. Dan will probably be able to exceed that amount. Like any third party candidate, this is a long shot. But conditions will likely be as good  as ever this November for an Emerald takeover.

Robinson could try to make the case that powerful Ways and Means Chair Sheila Hixson is a tool of a Democratic Leadership that is too moderate for the District 20 electorate.

If Jonathan Shurberg wins the Democratic Primary, Robinson could try to make the race about Shurberg’s ethics issues.

Robinson could attack Will Smith, who is a Homeland Security consultant, on the premise that he’s part of the military industrial complex and therefore not truly progressive.

These issues are typically irrelevant in state legislative elections but Jamie Raskin had some success attacking Ida Ruben over a non-binding resolution regarding the Iraq War in 2006. Robinson would have to make corporate welfare for Lockheed Martin a central issue in this line of attack.

Will Jawando is a corporate lobbyist. Robinson could probably ding him on that but I don’t see how he can turn it into the kill shot he needs in a region almost as full of lobbyists as lawyers.

David Moon, the most progressive candidate in the race, is squeaky clean as far as I can tell. Robinson would be foolish to target him.

Whoever the Democratic nominees are, they will have depleted their resources in the primary. They will also likely take the general election for granted. More than likely they, will have difficulty raising additional funds in the general–most donors will likely choose to devote their resources to tough races in other parts of the state–and I doubt many volunteers will be fired up about knocking doors.

Perhaps Dan Robinson can catch the sleeping giant and become the first Green Party State legislator in Maryland. I don’t expect it to happen. But I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he did.

 

Share

Not So Progressive Neighbors

PNWebanner

Last Friday, I explained how Progressive Neighbors just isn’t attracting the love from incumbent Democrats. A majority of incumbent legislators didn’t even return their candidate questionnaire.

They aren’t the only ones.

Anthony Brown and Ken Ulman didn’t fill one out either. The MO of this campaign has been to seek aggressively virtually every endorsement around the State, so their decision to decline to seek that of Progressive Neighbors speaks volumes.

Surely, the lack of interest from the man who may be the State’s first African-American governor must have caused some navel gazing in this progressive organization even if the policies of Heather Mizeur and Delman Coates better fit their profile.

Brown-Ulman are not the only ones who appear to have made a calculated decision to give PN a pass. Is anyone really surprised that Council President Craig Rice did not bother to fill out the questionnaire when his 2010 opponent–a perfectly nice woman in my experience–sits on the Steering Committee that votes on endorsements?

One major reason for the antipathy expressed by many for Progressive Neighbors’ endorsement process is that 5 of the 19 members of their Steering Committee are running for either the state legislature or the county council. Boards often have a member seeking office but I’ve never heard of five at once.

Not only that but the PN endorsement questionnaires were unbelievably sent out by one of these candidates–even to her opponent. Progressive Neighbors views this as a minor hiccup that was corrected less than a week later after it was pointed out. But it is far more than an oopsy daisy.

Portions of the questionnaire attack corporate cronyism and call for public financing. How can people so concerned about inappropriate influence on politics think it was a good idea for a candidate to send a questionnaire to her opponent?

PN’s endorsement questionnaire goes on at great length about transparency:

Progress has been made in improving transparency in the General Assembly over the past four years, with greater access to online tools for the public, the posting online of committee votes, and increased audio and video coverage of legislative deliberations. Much still remains to be done, however, including posting of subcommittee votes, committee amendments and votes, and the institution of a system to allow constituents to sign up to testify online the day before a committee hearing so they don’t have to spend all day in Annapolis waiting to testify. Do you support these improvements, and do you have others you’d like to offer? Are you willing to support special elections to fill legislative vacancies? Do you support stripping the party central committees of the power of appointment, which ultimately lies with the Governor?

But the structure of the organization and its endorsement process is less open than might appear at first glance. The PN Steering Committee is elected by . . . the Steering Committee. The same committee–the one with five members running for office–also controls the endorsement process.

In this process, PN doesn’t model the open behavior it would like to see in the General Assembly:

The Steering Committee may choose to have a secret ballot on certain concerns and some meetings may be closed. Steering Committee members will be encouraged to keep individual Steering Committee members’ votes in confidence.

Surprisingly, the Steering Committee did not endorse two of their own members. In News of the Weird, Jonathan Shurberg and Will Smith were progressive enough to serve on the Steering Committee but not to be endorsed. I imagine that PN would argue that it somehow proves the integrity of their process but it is also just odd since both are credible, progressive candidates.

Other choices seem as bizarre. In District 18, Del. Ana Sol Gutiérrez has long been a stalwart staunch progressive. How on earth can she, the first Latina elected to public office in Montgomery County who passionately favors left-wing policies to reduce economic inequality, not be progressive enough?

On the other hand, the organization endorsed both Steering Committee Member Terrill North and Del. Tom Hucker for the open District 5 County Council seat. Apparently, PN decided to give Hucker, generally viewed as a solid left winger, a pass on his recent vote against indexation of the minimum wage in the House (Gutiérrez along with Mizeur and Ivey voted yea) despite having pressed that the County adopt this stand.

Progressive Neighbors has a nice sounding name and provides another decal that endorsed candidates can stick on their literature. Beyond that, especially outside of District 20, they cannot provide anything meaningful with the endorsement. As one liberal legislator explained to me, “Nobody fills out their questionnaire because they demand extreme positions and offer nothing of value.”

Share

D20 Delegate Race Analysis

D20

District 20’s two open seat primary for Delegate is possibly the most talked about state legislative primary in Maryland this year. The large field has settled into a four candidate top tier.

First, there is David Moon–a long time political operative, well-read state politics blogger and attorney. He has received endorsements from MCEA and the LCV. He had over $50,000 on hand for his January Report. His progressive politics fit the district well and he is presently the best bet to capture one of the two open seats. He has the best, most professionally run campaign of the bunch.

Then there is Will Jawando–a federal lobbyist, former Capitol Hill staffer and Obama appointee. He is also an attorney. Jawando had raised over $40,000 by January. While his fundraising has drastically underperformed expectations, he still has more non self-financed money than anyone else in the race. His lack of local ties and infrastructure hurts him with some activists. But precinct chairs make up a tiny percentage of Democratic primary voters, which many people seem to forget sometimes.

There is also Will Smith, an attorney, Homeland Security consultant and Obama appointee. He has a strong resume and has gotten endorsements from MCEA, the LCV and the Sierra Club. Smith has burned half of his $52,000 haul, leaving him with a paltry $28,000 cash on hand. This high burn rate is the sign of a badly mismanaged campaign. In the year before an election, candidates should be conserving their cash in order to maximize spending on paid communications in the weeks leading up to Election Day. From fundraising to field to communications to political, I have yet to hear anything positive about Will’s operation.

Rounding out the top tier is Jonathan Shurberg, a trial lawyer dogged by substantial ethical issues. His law license was (until recently) suspended over misappropriation of client funds. He has had multiple tax liens against his properties and has been sued for legal malpractice. Nevertheless, Shurberg does have access to substantial sums of money (my spies tell me they spring from a family oil and gas fortune). However, the campaign has burned through half of the initial $125,000 he loaned his campaign. Shurberg has three people on his staff–insane for a Maryland legislative race. He also has a litany of consultants on the payroll–some credible, some dubious. Lots of money has also gone to event sponsorships and other activities that do little to communicate his message to voters. The campaign has gotten universally bad reviews around the county. His ethical baggage and burn rate would normally doom his campaign. But if he keeps writing himself the checks, it’s possible he can pull it off.

There are a variety of other candidates: D’Juan Hopewell (an anti hunger advocate), Justin Chappell (a former Tom Harkin staffer and disability rights activist), Darian Unger (Howard University academic, volunteer firefighter and civic activist) and George Zokle (a litigation attorney). All would be threats in other districts but it would require a real shake up for any of them to break through in D20 on June 24th.

Sheila Hixson is a lock for reelection.

Ratings: Safe Hixson, Lean Moon, and Toss Up between Shurberg, Jawando and Smith for the third seat.

Note: Organization of a slate by popular Sen. Jamie Raskin and Del. Sheila Hixson could scramble these ratings.

Share

MCEA Endorsements

The influential Montgomery County Educational Association has issued new endorsements for state legislative elections. So far, these choices are very conservative bets. They have endorsed all but one incumbent running for reelection.

In District 16, Susan Lee is also a lock for the Senate. All of the endorsed non-incumbent delegates are seen as having good chances, though the races in District 16 and 20 are the most up for grabs with other candidates having strong shots.

The only outstanding endorsement is in District 15 where recently appointed incumbent David Fraser-Hidalgo has not been endorsed. Rumor has it that they had planned to endorse challenger Bennett Rushkoff but that he did not receive the required super majority. We’ll see if MCEA picks Fraser-Hidalgo, Rushkoff, or no one.

Here is the current list with non-incumbents in boldface:

District 14
Senate: Karen Montgomery
Delegate: Anne Kaiser, Eric Luedtke and Craig Zucker

District 15
Senate: Brian Feldman
Delegate: Kathleen Dumais and Aruna Miller (one still pending)

District 16
Senate: Susan Lee
Delegate: Bill Frick, Ariana Kelly and Hrant Jamgochian

District 17
Senate: No Endorsement
Delegate: Kumar Barve, Jim Gilchrist and Andrew Platt

District 18
Senate: Rich Madaleno
Delegate: Al Carr, Ana Sol Gutiérrez and Jeff Waldstricher

District 19
Senate: Roger Manno
Delegate: Bonnie Cullison and Ben Kramer (no third endorsement)

District 20
Senate: Jamie Raskin
Delegate: Sheila Hixson, David Moon and Will Smith

District 39
Senate: Nancy King
Delegate: Charles Barkley, Kirill Reznick and Shane Robinson

Share

Push Polls in District 20?

MoonSmithShurbergThree of the District 20 Delegate Candidates: David Moon, Will Smith, and Jonathan Shurberg

District 20 has a lively delegate race with two vacancies caused by Del. Heather Mizeur’s gubernatorial run and Del. Tom Hucker’s county council candidacy. Local lawyer and Democratic activist Jonathan Shurberg is a candidate.

Jon has already loaned his campaign $125K and is rumored to be prepared to loan far more if needed to win the seat in his first run for elective office. Even in Montgomery County, he will clearly break towards the very high end of spending if he follows through and loans his campaign similar amounts in the future.

Rumors started earlier this week that Jon was the victim of a push poll when voters started receiving calls asking questions about Shurberg’s past three tax liens and previous disbarment, actually suspension, from the practice of law in Maryland (see also here and here) due to having misappropriated client funds. The poll also asked for responses to positive statements about his opponents.

Some speculated that David Moon or Will Smith–two other candidates in the race–had possibly sponsored the poll to undermine Jon’s campaign. Both know quite a bit about campaigns, especially in District 20. David ran Jamie Raskin’s 2006 campaign, has worked extensively as a campaign consultant, and is the author of the Maryland Juice blog, Will Smith, a former Obama appointee in the Department of Homeland Security, ran the D20 slate’s successful reelection campaign in 2010.

However, I could not imagine savvy, experienced campaign consultants like either David or Will carrying out a push poll because it just wouldn’t make much sense in this case.

First, the multi-seat nature of delegate races offers little incentive to go negative. When campaigning in these sorts of races, it’s best to be on friendly terms with everyone. If you meet a voter who says they like a rival candidate, it makes it easier to respond “she’s great, I hope you’ll vote for me too!” Attacking another candidate mainly risks losing votes from their supporters.

Second, there is no guarantee that it will benefit the ad’s sponsor, particularly in a race with so many candidates. Instead, it may aid another candidate, especially when the target denounces the ad as scurrilous and its sponsor as throwing mud. Finally, polling is costly and the money would be better spent on voter contact.

So who did the poll?

Turns out Jon did the poll to test out the impact of potential attacks and positive messages that other candidates may use.

Not a good use of campaign funds. Money is a very helpful campaign resource but only if it is spent wisely. Polling results are often dubious in down ballot races with so many candidates. Name recognition of the candidates is low. Voters respond as much to cues from endorsers as much as message.

One can test messages but it hardly requires a poll to know that voters will be suspicious of an attorney threatened with disbarment. Moreover, it’s working to counter a message that will likely never be used. Better to have spent the money on voter contact instead of exposing voters to negative information about his past.

Share