BREAKING: U.S. Supreme Court Gives New Life to Challenge to MD Congressional Districts

CDMDReversing a decision by the Fourth Circuit, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a unanimous opinion that a federal district court judge erred in dismissing a suit against Maryland’s redistricting plan on First Amendment grounds without letting it go before a three-judge panel. As a result, the case is remanded, presumably so that the petitioner can make his case before a three-judge panel.

Winning a rehearing on an appeal over improper procedure is a long way from winning the challenge. Still, it gives new judicial life to a debate over the legality over Maryland’s congressional redistricting plan that the State had thought had been put to bed. (h/t Rick Hasen).

The opinion of the court can also be found here:
Shapiro v. McManus (2015)

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D14 Legislators Endorse Zucker for Senate and Queen for House

I received the following press release from both Del. Anne Kaiser Del. Eric Luedtke:

District 14 Team Announces Recommendations to Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee

MONTGOMERY COUNTY, Md. (December 4, 2015) – Earlier today, State Senator and District 14 member Karen Montgomery announced that she will retire upon the appointment of her successor, saying that she will notify Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. on January 1 of her intent to resign.

The District 14 delegates, Majority Leader Anne Kaiser, Craig Zucker and Eric Luedtke, want to thank Karen Montgomery for her leadership, dedication and commitment to a career serving Montgomery County and the State of Maryland.

“Senator Montgomery has been a champion for our district and a wonderful member of the team,” said Del. Craig Zucker. “She has been a leader of progressive values in Annapolis and we thank her for her service.”

To fulfill the vacancy that will be created by her retirement, Sen. Montgomery has recommended Del. Zucker as her successor.

“While serving with Delegate Zucker in Annapolis, I have had the privilege to know him as a father, a legislator and a leader,” said Montgomery. “Along with Delegates Anne Kaiser and Eric Luedtke, the District 14 Team is putting its full support behind Delegate Zucker to be our next State Senator.”

After Sen. Montgomery’s letter of resignation is received by Senate President Miller, the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee will have up to 30 days to submit a name to the Governor to serve as the next District 14 Senator.

Although she will submit her intent to resign on January 1, Montgomery will continue to serve her constituents, and will not vacate her seat, until a new senator is appointed.

“Let me be clear, I will not allow my district to be without representation in Annapolis during this transition to my retirement,” said Montgomery. “We have fought hard to move Maryland forward, and I will continue that effort as an elected official until the day my successor is sworn-in.”

Del. Zucker, who was first elected to represent District 14 in 2010 and re-elected in 2014, serves on the House of Delegates Appropriations Committee, where he is Chair of the Health and Human Resources Subcommittee.

“I am proud that she is recommending me to the Central Committee as the successor to finish her term in the Senate,” said Del. Zucker. “I intend to formally submit my name to the Central Committee as a candidate when Senator Montgomery’s resignation becomes official.”

Del. Zucker will also have the support of County Executive Isiah Leggett.

“I congratulate Karen Montgomery for her service to District 14 and our community,” said Leggett. “I know Delegate Zucker will do an admirable job filling her shoes. That is why he has my enthusiastic support. There is no one who works harder than him.”

If Del. Zucker is recommended and there is a vacancy for his current seat, the District 14 Team is recommending longtime community activist, educator and Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee member, Pamela Queen.

“I have known Pam for many years, and I have admired her strong-minded passion for District 14 and her community,” said Del. Anne Kaiser. “Delegate Luedtke and I look forward to the opportunity to serve alongside her.”

Pamela Queen is a Professor of Finance at Morgan State University in Baltimore. She uses her expertise and training as a certified project management professional and her Ph.D. in finance to enhance operations of non-profit, community and civic groups. A mother of one, Pamela is married to Retired Naval Captain Gregory Queen and lives in Olney.

The Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee is scheduled to meet on January 12, 2016.

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Our Muslim and Sikh Neighbors

One of my favorite books as a kid was The Chosen by Chaim Potok. Today, I’ve been thinking a lot about a small moment in the sequel when Reuven, a rabbinical student, explains to his terrified teacher, a rabbi who survived the Holocaust, that there won’t be pogroms in the wake of conviction of the Rosenbergs for spying:

“Reuven, will there be–trouble?” His voice was tense with fear.

“What kind of trouble?”

“For Jews.”

“No. There won’t be any trouble for Jews.” Then, I realized what was disturbing him. “It doesn’t work like that,” I said, very gently. “There will be no pogroms because of the Rosenbergs.”

He looked me in disbelief. He had been in this country two years and he still didn’t understand what it was really all about.

Treating and respecting people as individuals no matter their faith is at the cornerstone of what makes America function and truly a marvelous place. It’s what allows not just to rub along but to be a single people: Americans.

In a time when many are using fear over security to whip up support for political purposes, we cannot succumb to groupthink over our Muslim and Sikh neighbors that would have us think that they are part of some pernicious group conspiracy. We know all too well where such thoughts lead.

As Fareed Zakaria explained so well in his column on the wave of anti-Muslim rhetoric in America:

It also misunderstands how religion works in people’s lives. Imagine a Bangladeshi taxi driver in New York. He has not, in any meaningful sense, chosen to be Muslim. He was born into a religion, grew up with it, and like hundreds of millions of people around the world in every religion, follows it out of a mixture of faith, respect for his parents and family, camaraderie with his community and inertia. His knowledge of the sacred texts is limited. He is trying to make a living and provide for his family. For him, Islam provides identity and psychological support in a hard life. This is what religion looks like for the vast majority of Muslims.

Muslims and Sikhs aren’t just like us. They are us. At least they are if we want to remain who we are and have struggled so long to become as a nation and a people.

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Republican Board of Elections Members Violated the Open Meetings Act

According to an opinion by the Open Meetings Compliance Board, the three Republican members of the Montgomery County Board of Elections violated the Open Meetings Act when they held a private conference call. As readers may recall, this call took place during the heated debate over the movement of early voting locations to less Democratic areas in the County.

From the opinion’s conclusion:

We have concluded that three voting members, a majority of the voting members of the elections board, constitute a “quorum” for purposes of the Act such that a conference call among three voting members constituted a meeting subject to the Act. We have recognized that applying the Act’s quorum definition to the elections board is complicated, and this matter posed the unusual circumstance in which the public body’s own definition, when applied, did not secure the public’s right to observe every stage of the public body’s consideration of public business. Although we can see that the board members might reasonably have relied on the bylaws provision when they conducted the board’s business among themselves, we nonetheless find that the conference call violated the Act. We therefore direct the elections board to the acknowledgment requirement in $ 3-211. We have not commented on how the elections board must transact business under the elections laws.

You can read the full letter here:
Open Meetings Compliance Letter on Paul E. Bessel’s Complaint

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Why the Council’s Liquor Reform Won’t Work

Today, I am pleased to present a guest post from Adam Pagnucco:

Rising to the defense of the county’s liquor monopoly, the County Council has put forward a proposal for reform.  They claim it will cure most of the problems at the Department of Liquor Control (DLC) while causing none of the budgetary consequences of allowing full private sector competition with the department.  Are they right?

Let’s examine their recommendation in detail.

The council’s proposal focuses on “special orders,” which are requests by customers for products not in DLC’s regular stock.  The DLC’s performance in delivering these products is a huge source of complaints for restaurants and retailers, who claim that DLC regularly shorts orders, misses orders, delivers the wrong products and charges mark-ups that are significantly higher than in the District of Columbia.  The following story is a typical description of DLC’s operations in this area.

Mike Hill, general manager of Adega Wine Cellars & Café in Silver Spring, said they have problems getting specialty wines and craft beer.

“If we like a beer or wine and we want to bring that into our store, the turnaround time can be eight days if we’re lucky or two to three months to not at all in some cases,” Hill said.

He said delivery times vary from 11 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. He explained that sometimes he receives orders that should have gone to other restaurants or stores. Other times his business receives sealed boxes that are labeled as one type of wine, but turn out to be another type when they open it.

“About 75 percent of my wall is bare because of items we’re unable to get,” Hill said.

The council is right to be concerned about this.  Their proposal would allow retailers and restaurants to purchase specialty wines and beer directly from private distributors.  That sounds great on the surface, but the devil is in the details.  Let’s have a look at the major features of what the council has in mind.

  1. DLC remains in control.

DLC has sole authority to determine what beverages are regular stock or special order, and the council’s proposed legislation does nothing to change that.  DLC would also have sole authority to levy and administer a fee on any transactions between private customers and private distributors, an issue explored further below.  Because DLC continues to preside over, control and impose charges on any purchases under the council’s proposal, that guarantees that its many inefficiencies will continue to plague the entire system.

  1. The economics don’t work.

The council would have private distributors make small deliveries of specialty products while retaining most of the volume for direct delivery by DLC.  That’s a problem.  Distribution is a capital-intensive industry.  Assets like warehouses and trucks are expensive to maintain.  To make money, distributors need to move lots of volume through their warehouses and send out lots of full trucks.  If they can’t do that, many won’t be able to profit under the council’s proposal and they could simply stay out.  Since distributors strike exclusive arrangements with manufacturers, this factor alone could exclude many beverages from the council’s proposed new system, thereby limiting its scope and defeating its purpose.

The two largest distributors in Maryland, Reliable Churchill and Republic National, made this argument in a July 2015 letter to the county council.  They wrote:

We suggest that some wholesalers, including us, will not be able to deliver special orders for economic reasons.  At present, private wholesalers deliver only to the Department of Liquor Control (the “Department”) warehouse so they have no regular delivery routes in the County.  To fulfill a special order, the private wholesaler would have to make a special trip to the licensee.  By their nature, special orders are for small quantities.  The profit on such a small transaction would not cover our delivery costs incurred by sending a truck for a special delivery.  In other words, there is no financial incentive to make the special delivery and, in fact, a disincentive.

We do not want the [council’s] resolution to raise expectations unnecessarily, so we are writing again.  As you know, private wholesalers are not required to fill all orders.  Also a winery and distillery can use only one private distributor in Maryland.  A distributor can refuse to fill an order if it is not economically feasible.  Common sense dictates that a private wholesaler would not fill orders costing them money because they are not in business to lose money.  It is almost certain that Republic National and Reliable cannot afford to make a special delivery to a licensee.

Wholesalers Letter to Council 1 Wholesalers Letter to Council 2

  1. The do-nothing fee.

The most controversial aspect of the council’s proposal is that DLC would be able to charge a fee on any special order transactions between private customers and private distributors even though it does nothing to facilitate them.  According to the council’s legislation, the fee would be “set at a level sufficient to replace the Department of Liquor Control for Montgomery County’s estimated revenue lost by allowing private licensed Maryland wholesalers to sell and distribute beer and light wine products…”  So DLC would be made whole.  It would be the sole determiner of exactly how high of a fee would be required to make it whole.  And since DLC is hugely inefficient in the special order segment – something even the council admits – the fee would reflect DLC’s bloated service costs rather than any cost savings obtained by going private.  And who would ultimately wind up paying this fee?  That’s right, the consumer.

Here’s what the state’s two largest distributors wrote about the do-nothing fee (which they characterize as a tax) in the letter shown above.

We also suggest that the local tax you intend to impose on special orders is counter-productive.  It makes a bad economic situation worse.  First, increasing the cost of products will encourage people to shop outside the County, thereby creating a hit for County business.  The County should lower prices to keep business in the county.  Already, tens of millions of dollars are spent outside the county on alcoholic beverages due to the comparatively higher costs.  Second, the tax makes delivery of a special order even more costly, discouraging wholesalers from delivering special orders.  Wholesalers cannot charge more in Montgomery County to recoup a local charge.  Third, state law precludes local taxation of alcoholic beverages, thereby suggesting that the local charge is illegal and cannot be implemented.  Fourth, we expect significant opposition to this proposal of a local charge based on its statewide implications.  Last, in some ways, the County should pay wholesalers to deliver special orders because they are solving a County problem at their expense.  We know that will never happen.

What if the do-nothing fee is removed?  Well, there’s a catch: the county issues bonds backed by liquor profits.  The council and the County Executive use this as a basis for opposing full private competition but it’s also relevant to the council’s proposal.  The County Executive believes that the do-nothing fee is required to protect those bonds in the case that any liquor distribution is done privately.  In the memo below, the Executive writes to the Council President:

I have been advised by the County’s Bond Counsel that edits were required to earlier drafts of the [liquor control] legislation to avoid a downgrade to the over $100 million in outstanding Department of Liquor Control (DLC) Revenue bonds as well as prevent litigation from existing bondholders due to a material deterioration in the security of the bonds.  According to Bond Counsel, at the time the bonds were sold bondholders had the security of a near monopoly created by State law.  If this legislation is approved that near monopoly will no longer exist under State law; so the security of the bonds will have changed.  Prior drafts of the legislation did not limit the reduction in DLC revenues pledged for the payment of the bonds and did not mandate the imposition of the surcharge [on private transactions].

The best option for reducing the possibility of a downgrade or a bondholder action is to require that the surcharge collected from the wholesalers is equal to lost revenues.  Therefore we have inserted provisions making the surcharge mandatory and “set at a level sufficient to replace… the estimated revenue lost.”  This provision should remain even after the bonds have been paid to protect County services supported by the DLC earnings transfer.

Leggett DLC 1 Leggett DLC 2

And so if the council’s recommendation is adopted with a do-nothing fee, it will – surprise! – do nothing because distributors won’t participate.  And if it is adopted without one, it would cause many of the same budgetary issues as an End the Monopoly approach with few of the offsetting benefits.

  1. A Get Out of Jail Free Card for DLC.

Remember the board game Monopoly?  One of its most famous playing cards allows a player to Get Out of Jail Free.  That’s exactly what the council’s proposal does for DLC.

Get out of jail free-1

The proposals by Comptroller Peter Franchot and Delegate Bill Frick would expose DLC to full private sector competition – the only force that will compel DLC to improve.  But the council’s system would keep DLC in the driver’s seat.  DLC would decide which beverages to sell, which ones to delegate to the private sector and exactly how much money it will charge to be “compensated.”  It will remain free to run its warehouse with sticky notes and to suffer shortages of as many as 154 cases a day.  Its broken ordering system will now include extra accounting and paperwork to administer the do-nothing fee.  And if anyone speaks up in the future in favor of real change, the DLC’s bureaucracy will say, “Wait a minute.  A new procedure has just been put in place.  We need time to implement it.  And once we do, we promise things will improve.”  And a year will pass.  And five years.  And then a decade.  And businesses will continue to struggle while consumers simply flee to the District of Columbia, which they do now.

The council’s proposal is designed to force citizens – consumers and businesses alike – to subjugate their interests to the liquor monopoly.  Good government demands the opposite: the county should serve the interests of the citizens.  And there’s only one way to do that.

End the Monopoly.

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Explaining Hogan’s Stance on Syrian Refugees

Romney Hogan ModelsYesterday’s post showed the strong relationship between the share who voted No on Question 4 in 2012 (the Maryland Dream Act) and support for Romney and Hogan across Maryland counties. Today, I look at models that control for other variables to test whether immigration or other factors best predicts support for Republican candidates in our state.

Immigration is Powerful

Immigration dominates  other factors when explaining GOP support at the county level. The Romney model projects that Romney gained an estimated 9.5% additional votes for every 10% increase in the share who voted against the Dream Act.

Immigration has an even stronger relationship on the vote for Gov. Larry Hogan–he gained 13.1% more votes for every 10% who voted No on Question 4. So Hogan did a better job than Romney of magnifying the anti-immigration vote.

Same-Sex Marriage

Same-sex marriage was on the ballot in 2012 and a source of disagreement in the presidential campaign. As the state became the first to vote Yes on marriage equality, a 10% rise in support for marriage for equality cost Romney an estimated 2.5% of the vote.

Two years later, when support for marriage had increased further according to the polls, Hogan did his best to minimize discussion of the issue and take it off the table. He succeeded. Unlike for Romney, views on marriage equality had no impact on support for Hogan.

The Politics of Syrian Refugees

In his successful effort to win the Governor’s Mansion, Gov. Hogan downplayed his views on same-sex marriage. Hogan has wisely stuck with this approach of doing nothing to please social conservatives beyond stating his personal support for their viewpoint.

Immigration is also a complex issue for Hogan. A thumping majority voted for the Dream Act in 2012. Yet the above models demonstrate immigration’s strong salience to Hogan’s base. Politicians can only afford to tick off their base so much.

What to do? From a calculated political point of view, Hogan pleased his base by opposing Syrian refugees. He also probably doesn’t mind to the extent that his stand is being drowned out in the media by more hysterical reactions by other governors and presidential candidates, as it minimizes the number of alienated pro-immigrant voters.

Notes on Other Factors

Beyond the factors tested above, I also looked at the share of Asians and Hispanics as well as median household income. None had a significant impact on the support for Hogan or Romney once the immigration was included. I should note that income frequently has a bigger impact in surveys than at the aggregate level. Unfortunately, I had no easy measure of county attitudes on economic issues, as opposed to income. African-American areas voted more heavily Democratic according to the models but the impact is lower than one might expect after controlling for immigration.

 

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Anti-Immigrant Sentiment and Republican Support

While yesterday’s post looked at the growth of anti-immigrant, radical right populist parties in Europe, today turns back to Maryland. Specifically, just how closely linked is anti-immigrant sentiment to support for Republicans?

The election results from Question 4 from 2012 provide a handy snapshot of the views of voters on immigrants. Question 4 asked voters if they wanted to keep in place the Maryland Dream Act. The pro-immigrant side won a big victory when 58.9% of Marylanders voted in favor of allowing undocumented immigrants to pay in-state college tuition under certain conditions.

The county results on Question 4 turn out to be an excellent predictor of how each county voted in the 2012 presidential election. The scatterplot below shows that the share of a county’s voters that supported Romney or Hogan tended to increase in line with the share who voted no on Question 4.

Q4 & RomneyThis was not a one off, as the same is true for the 2014 gubernatorial election. Support for the Republican Larry Hogan tended to rise with the share who voted no on Question 4.

Q4 & HoganThe correlation between the share who voted no and the share who voted for Romney in each county was a very high .96. (Correlations have a maximum of 1, which would indicate that one factor perfectly predicts the other.) The correlation between the no vote and vote for Hogan was the same .96.

The next part of this series in immigration will compare the strength of immigration to other issues and demographic factors as predictor of election outcomes.

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