Monthly Archives: March 2015

Eighth Congressional District, turnout

CD8: Where are the Voters?

Building on Adam Pagnucco’s analysis from yesterday, I thought it would be great to delve into voter turnout in past Democratic primaries within the Eighth Congressional District. My gratitude to the reader who provided me with this extremely interesting registration and turnout data.

Registered Democrats by State Legislative District

So where do registered Democrats live and which ones are more likely to vote? The first table shows the current number of registered Democrats along with past primary turnout broken down by state legislative district. Note that the data include only the portion of state legislative districts within CD 8.

TO1 Past VH x SHD

D16 holds 19.8% of registered Democrats and an even higher share of actual voters. In Democratic primaries from 2008 through 2014, D16 residents formed at least 21.0% and as much as 22.2% of voters. D16 is the most highly educated district in Maryland–and quite possibly the country–and studies show that education is more strongly related to voter turnout than any other factor. These numbers should encourage Del. Ariana Kelly.

In contrast, these numbers are less favorable to Sen. Jamie Raskin (D-20). Though D20 is chock-a-block with registered Democrats, not all of D20 is in CD8. As a result, D20 is home to just 16.9% of registered Democrats in the Eighth, probably less than many expect though still high.

Moreover, turnout within the D20 portions of CD8 is erratic. In 2014, D20 Democrats voted at a relatively high rate in the primary and constituted 17.6% of CD 8 Democratic primary voters. But their share in the district never exceeded 15.8% in the Democratic party primaries held from 2008 through 2012.

The second biggest stronghold of potential Democratic primary voters in CD 8 is D18, as it is home to 18.8% of all of registered Democrats. Turnout effects are smaller than in D16 or D20 with the share of D18 Democrats among all of the Eighth’s primary voters ranging from just 18.2% to 19.6%.

Del. Kumar Barve (D-17) suffers not only from the split in his district between the Sixth and Eighth Congressional Districts but the relative paucity of Democrats. Barve currently represents just 8.5% of the Eighth’s registered Democrats. They also tend to under perform on primary day, as their share of CD 8 voters ranged from 7.7% to 8.2% in the past four Democratic primaries.

Finally, it is worth noting that 17.9% of registered Democrats living in the Eighth don’t live in Montgomery County, so candidates will want to spend time and advertise in these areas. Fortunately for candidates, only around 8% of registered Democrats live in Carroll County, located in the Baltimore media market.

The rest live in the very expensive Washington media market where the vast majority of viewers are not registered Democrats living in the Eighth District. Less pricey social media will be extremely popular this year. But candidates cannot forget traditional media, as the primary electorate skews very old.

Registered Democrats by State Legislative and County Council Districts

The second table breaks down the share of registered Democrats by state legislative district and county council district:

TO2 Dem RV x SHD x County Council

Montgomery Councilmember Roger Berliner (D-1) represents 26.9% of CD 8’s Democrats but he has declined to enter the race. However, Montgomery County District 5 holds 22.5% of registered Democrats in the Eighth–a higher share than any state legislative district. Rumored congressional candidate and former Councilmember Valerie Ervin represented a slightly differently configured version of District 5.

At-Large Montgomery Councilmember Nancy Floreen has publicly mused about a run for Congress. She represents 81.8% of registered Democrats in CD 8, an overlap that any other of the rumored candidates would envy. But, as Adam pointed out, she has only run in the multimember at-large district, so the congressional race would be a different. Nevertheless, Floreen likely starts with higher name recognition than other candidates.

Likely Voters by State Legislative and County Council Districts

The final table breaks down the share of Democrats who voted in at least two of the past four primaries by state legislative district and county council district:

TO3 Dem 2 of 4 x SHD x County Council

Interestingly, this table reveals that D16 holds more people who are likely to vote in the primary than Council District 5. The high rates of turnout among D16 residents would bring Del. Kelly to parity with former Councilmember Ervin in terms of likely voters previously represented even though Ervin represented far more people.

Turnout only accentuates the Montgomery tilt of CD 8, as it is home to 82.5% of people who voted in at least one-half of the past four primaries. Among the remainder, 10.1% live in Frederick County as compared to 7.4% in Carroll County.

Based on this table, the most desirable pieces of real estate to have represented before in terms of Democratic primary turnout are:

1. Montgomery County (Floreen)
2. Montgomery County Council District 1
3. State Legislative District 16 (Kelly)
4. Montgomery County Council District 5 (Ervin)
5. State Legislative District 18
6. Montgomery County Council District 4
7. State Legislative District 20 (Raskin)
8. Montgomery County Council District 3
9. State Legislative District 19
10. Frederick County
11. State Legislative District 4
12. State Legislative District 17 (Barve)

Still, as Adam points out, all candidates have a lot of work to do to get known to most voters. Floreen and Kelly, who represent the most voters, have run only in multi-candidate contests. Other candidates have good bases but have run only in lower visibility races and in a portion of CD 8.

The keys to a good campaign remain the same: message, money, volunteers, and organization. Candidates need to have a message to sell to voters. They need money to pay for media to get it across and volunteers to spread the word and help canvass. But none of it matters if the candidate cannot run a a good strategic campaign.

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Bigotry

Update: Why is Hate, I mean Help, Save Maryland a Tax-Deductible Charity?

Your contributions to Help Save Maryland are tax deductable. This group busies itself perpetuating hate of blacks and gays, but its main joy in life is to spew vitriol about undocumented immigrants and CASA de Maryland.

Many organizations have two counterparts–a (c)(3) that conducts in educational and other tax deductible non-political activities and a (c)(4) that engages in politics. Donations to the latter are not tax deductible, and the two types of organizations have to be kept carefully separate.

Help Save Maryland thus describes its focus on “awareness and education” in an effort to fit the (c)(3) mold but lets the mask slip when it states that it “provides an effective voice for citizens frustrated by our out-of-touch Maryland politicians.” Its tag line on the top right of its web page says “Working to Make Our Elected Officials Accountable to The Citizens of Maryland.” That sure sounds like non-tax deductible lobbying to me.

Haters are gonna hate, as Rep. Aaron Schock recently reminded us at the beginning of the unfolding scandals that led to his resignation announcement yesterday. But that doesn’t mean we have to give them a tax deduction to lobby for it.

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Bigotry

Help Save Maryland

In 2015, bigotry can sometimes get defined down. But sometimes, the genuine unquestionable article stares you in the face. Help Save Maryland, an organization dedicated to fighting “the negative effects of illegal aliens,” provides examples.

Consider this segment from their St. Patrick’s Day Newsletter:

New Home in Rockville For CASA’s Illegal Day Labors

Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggett has always been a slippery operator.  Had the County Taxpayers pick up his legal tab some years ago when he was accused of sexually harassing a Blonde Haired White Female Staffer while he held an earlier county elected position.

Apropos of nothing, they dredge up an old charge from 1992 in order to perpetuate the oldest racist trope in the book of black men as sexual predators. And just to make sure you got the message, it was clearly important that they mention that she was “Blonde,”  “White,” and “Female.” Would it have been okay by HSM if the accuser had been a brown-skinned illegal alien male?

And, while I’ll plead guilty to many a typo due to lack of time and a proofreader, who capitalizes “blond” or “female” when they are not at the beginning of a sentence? HSM did not want you miss these key points.

Neverhtless, Help Save Maryland also wants you to know that racism is so over–almost as much as they want you to know they hate gays:

One of the strangest things [Loretta Lynch] said in reference to Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr’s “dream.” She said, “People tell us that dreams are not realized because dreams never are and he knew we had to continue working. I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you that under this president and under this attorney general, the Department of Justice is committed to following through with those dreams.”

So, the dream won’t be realized, but you’re going to continue pursuing it. Do I have that right? What dream is Ms. Lynch after? Blacks and other minorities have equality in America. They can work. They can own a home. They can marry. They have all the same rights that whites have, so what is the dream Ms. Lynch is pursuing? It’s the same dream the sodomite community is pursuing: special rights.

Why aren’t black people more grateful? I mean, we allow them to work, even to own their own homes. Gosh, they can even get married. So demanding, these people.

It’s almost impressive that someone can manage to sound so churlish about African Americans having access to very basic rights and feels it necessary to place Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s “dream” in pejorative quotes. Only HSM thinks that Loretta Lynch’s desire to follow through on it makes her some sort of radical.

“Sodomite community” has a nice ring but it lacks the certain quaintness of “open homosexual,” a term used in the article they cite as evidence that LGBT people want “special” rights. They’re almost as demanding as those uppity black and brown people.

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Adam Pagnucco, Eighth Congressional District

CD8 is Wide Open

Today, I am pleased to present a guest post from Adam Pagnucco:

Long-time District 8 Congressman Chris Van Hollen is now running for the U.S. Senate. Who will succeed him? No one knows because this race is wide open. That’s right, wide open.

Announced or potential candidates include At-Large Councilmembers Nancy Floreen and Hans Riemer, District 20 State Senator Jamie Raskin, District 17 Delegate Kumar Barve, District 16 Delegate Ariana Kelly, former District 5 County Council Member Valerie Ervin, former District 20 Delegate candidate Will Jawando and former WJLA anchor and current Marriott executive Kathleen Matthews. All except Matthews have campaign records. None have run campaigns that approach anything close to the scale of a congressional race.

Consider the following data.

CD8 Comparison

Campaign Spending

In the CD8 2002 primary, Chris Van Hollen spent $1.1 million and won. Mark Shriver spent $2.6 million and lost. None of the prospective candidates in the current CD8 have demonstrated that kind of monetary capacity. Raskin, Riemer and Floreen spent between 200k and 300k on their competitive races. Barve came close to that level in 2014. Ervin has never spent more than 100k in a campaign. All of these candidates would need to dramatically increase their fundraising activity and it’s hard to see that any one has a significant advantage over the others. Matthews, who may be able to draw on self-financing, national Dem money and corporate money, may be an exception.

Size of Electorate

It’s tricky to forecast the size of the CD8 Dem primary electorate because the district was changed radically in 2012 and it does not have a recent experience of primary competition. Van Hollen faced no-names in both the 2012 and 2014 primary and general elections. In the 2002 primary, when the district was almost entirely in MoCo, 86,000 Dems voted. That was a high turnout year for Dems in terms of gubernatorial elections, but 2016 is a presidential year and many more Dems could turn out. In 2012, a presidential year, just 39,000 Dems voted in the primary, as Van Hollen clobbered an opponent without a federal account and there was no meaningful competition in the Presidential and U.S. Senate races. A combination of competition in the U.S. Senate and CD8 races, plus support for Hillary Clinton, could drive turnout in the 2016 CD8 Dem primary north of 100,000.

Among the possible candidates in the CD8 primary, only Nancy Floreen and Hans Riemer have experience running in an electorate that large. State legislative races tend to draw out 7,000-16,000 Democratic primary voters. But Floreen and Riemer don’t necessarily have an advantage because their races are fundamentally different from congressional contests (more below).

Multiple-Vote vs One-Vote Races

A congressional race has one similarity to a State Senate race: voters only get to vote for one candidate. In House of Delegates races (at least in MoCo), voters can vote for up to three candidates. In Council At-Large races, they can vote for up to four. These are very different dynamics.

In a multiple-vote race, a candidate can be no one’s first choice, but can be the second or third choice of a lot of people and still win. Such a candidate would do poorly in a one-vote race like Congress. Even though Floreen and Riemer have won countywide, many of their voters are not voting for them. In 2010, 113,653 MoCo Democrats voted in the primary. Riemer received 40,493 votes (36%) and Floreen received 39,500 (35%). In 2014, 91,046 MoCo Democrats voted in the primary, which was notably less competitive than it was in 2010. Riemer received 49,932 votes (55%) and Floreen received 52,924 votes (58%). The number of voters who would rate either Riemer or Floreen as their first choice would be FAR fewer and would be closer to the total of one of the State Senators.

For what it’s worth, Floreen finished first in 32 of the 138 CD8 precincts located in Montgomery County in 2014. Riemer finished first in 11. At-Large Council Member Marc Elrich, who finished first in 90 CD8 precincts, has shown no interest in a Congressional race.

Delegates have similar problems. Barve and Kelly finished first in their respective House races, but the number of their voters who would have picked them as a first choice is unknowable short of a contemporaneous poll.

District Overlap

State legislators do not enter this race on equal footing. District boundaries and voting patterns give some an advantage over others. Delegate Ariana Kelly benefits from the fact that her district has more actual primary voters in CD8 than any other MoCo state legislative district. In terms of cards cast on 2014 primary election day by residents of CD8, Kelly’s District 16 led with 14,114, followed by District 18 (12, 072), District 20, home of Senator Jamie Raskin and Will Jawando (9,331), District 19 (6,948), District 17, home of Delegate Kumar Barve (4,929), District 14 (3,302) and District 15 (442). Barve is handicapped by the fact that 42% of voters in his district reside in CD6, not CD8.

Women

Fifty-nine percent of MoCo Democrats are women. That figure applies to registered Dems, voting Dems and “super-Dems,” or Dems who always vote. This is not necessarily a prohibitive advantage for female candidates. But if one or two strong women face off against a male-dominated field, it’s possible that this factor could act as something like a tiebreaker. A savvy female candidate might point out that with U.S. Senator Barbara Mikulski’s retirement and Rep. Donna Edwards’ entry into the Senate race, the state could be facing the very real prospect of an all-male congressional delegation.

Presidential Year vs. Gubernatorial Year Turnout

Presidential year Democratic primaries tend to attract higher turnout than gubernatorial year Dem primaries. Below are stats on how many MoCo Dems voted in the primary over the last six elections (both presidential and gubernatorial). With the glaring exception of 2012, when there was little or no competition in the presidential, U.S. Senate and CD8 races, presidential year turnouts tend to be higher. That means in a presidential year CD8 race, there will be tens of thousands of Democratic voters who have not voted in gubernatorial races and do not know their state senators, delegates or councilmembers. Communicating with these people will be a significant challenge for any candidate. Also, anywhere from a sixth to a fifth of the CD8 primary electorate will be residents of Carroll and Frederick Counties.

MoCo Turnout Dem Primary

Bottom Line

There are no favorites in this field. No candidate has proven that he or she can raise the money for a congressional campaign. The at-large County Council candidates run across a big geography but not in one-vote races. State legislators have small districts (at least compared to CD8) and delegates run in multiple-vote elections. Tens of thousands of non-gubernatorial and non-MoCo voters will have no idea who any of the candidates are and they will need some attention.

Wide open, folks. This contest is wide open.

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purple line

Kay Says Connecticut Ave. Overpass Could Be on Chopping Block

ChevyChaseLakeTraffic

Where the Purple Line Would Cross Connecticut

In a meeting with the Montgomery County delegation to the House of Delegates, MTA Executive Director of Transit Development and Delivery Henry Kay cited the Connecticut Avenue overpass as an example of the type of cuts that a bidder for the project might make in order to reduce costs.

Gov. Larry Hogan has asked the bidders for the project to find ways to reduce the cost of the proposed light-rail project. However, the directions exclude cutting the length of the line or converting it to a bus-rapid transit (BRT) system. As a result, expensive features like the overpass remain one of the few ways to cut costs.

The change would greatly worsen traffic on Connecticut Ave., already bumper-to-bumper during rush hour. Massive new development slated around the stop at Chevy Chase Lake would exacerbate the problem, as the great majority of new residents along with visitors to commercial properties would still drive.

The change would represent a major loss for the Washington Area Bicyclist Association, which has lobbied heavily against any plan to eliminate the overpass in favor of an at-grade crossing. WABA sold the Purple Line to its membership as improving bike travel. The change would mean that not only would there be no fast crossing at Connecticut. Additionally, the current underground bike crossing at Wisconsin Ave. will be eliminated even though the rail line will remain below ground.

 

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Nancy Navarro

Response to Nancy Navarro

I recently published a post on on Center Maryland decrying failure of the Montgomery County Council to articulate a clear vision for our rapidly changing community. Councilmember Nancy Navarro responded here. I appreciated her taking the time to respond and wanted to address some of the points that she raised.

Education

First, Councilmember Navarro rightfully acknowledges the immense challenges that the sea change in the demographics of Montgomery County Public Schools.

But Councilmember Navarro discussion focuses on her work in the context of the President’s Advisory Commission on Educational Excellence for Hispanics but says nothing about what the County Council has done. Moreover, sitting next to Shakira on a vanity federal commission does nothing for the children of Long Branch, Langley Park, Bel Pre and Briggs Chaney.

We really have two communities here in Montgomery County–the wealthy west side and the hardscrabble east side. While the inequities between the East and West sides require a multi-pronged approach here’s one place to start: the school choice system we’ve implemented here is a bad joke: what’s the point of a lottery between five high poverty, high crime High Schools? Add B-CC,  Whitman, WJ and Churchill to the Down County Consortium and watch how fast things change.

Business

Next Navarro points to the fact that the Council has passed many master and sector plans, though much of the heavy lifting on these is done by the Planning Board, not the Council, as evidence of major progress on economic development. The idea of trumpeting these  routine zoning measures is frankly a little sad. As we sit on the verge of losing Marriott, it’s dangerous.

Navarro calls my assertion that the council’s efforts on economic development are insufficient “laughable.” In my conversations with business owners, they emphasize that the County government acts merely as a regulatory authority to ensure rules are followed–and seems uninterested in helping businesses succeed and create jobs.

The District of Colombia and Northern Virginia have explosive growth in the early stage tech company sector. Montgomery County has completely missed the boat here, which is sad because given the presence of NIST, the 270 Biotech Corridor and NIH we should have been well positioned.

More importantly, instead of dealing with Northrop Grumman, Marriott and other major corporate headquarters relocation drama as they occur, why haven’t we developed a comprehensive plan for the attraction and retention of these Blue Chip Corporate Citizens? Why aren’t we actively trying to poach Fortune 500 Companies from Northern Virginia?

Finally, Navarro points out that the Council has to look out for the many affluent residents of the county. I paid a forty percent tax rate this year. I understand that high taxes are necessary to provide for top flight government services. But, right now, I feel that I’m not getting my money’s worth.

Conclusion

We are one community. If we can restore equity to our forty percent poverty school system and jump start our stagnant economy this benefits Bethesda just as much as Briggs Chaney. It is in the interest of everyone for the entire county to succeed–not just wealthy pockets on the West Side.

Our community needs real leadership. Our community needs an economic development plan for the 21st Century–a key part of that is how we increase our human capital. In short, Montgomery County needs real vision for the future. If we handle these challenges wisely, we can emerge stronger than ever. If we continue to ignore them, we risk frittering away the advantages we now hold.

 

 

 

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Jim Ireton, Salisbury

Ireton Fights Double Taxation in Salisbury

Andean Bear

Andean Bear Cub Looks Askance at Double Taxation.
While this cub resides at the National Zoo, another
was recently born at the Salisbury Zoo.

Salisbury Mayor Jim Ireton gave his State of the City address yesterday and laid down the gauntlet:

He claimed that 65 percent of Wicomico County residents are served by the Salisbury Fire Department, while 25 percent of those served are paying taxes on those services.

“The people who elected me to office are paying for that service for thousands and thousands of people who aren’t paying at all,” Ireton said.

Saying it has been “69 days without a response” from Wicomico County on the matter, he did not quite go as far as saying he would keep fire and emergency services from serving outside the city limits.

However, he said the so-called “nuclear option” was something that was on the table if county executive Bob Culver and members of the county council did not address the issue soon.

Ireton also outlined an innovative idea of how to deal with urban blight and hold those responsible accountable:

The most prominent initiative was his call to place QR codes on signs in front of abandoned buildings, linking to webpages showing information about the property’s past and present owners.

“I am tired of being the person responsible for everyone else’s dropping the ball,” the mayor said.

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Congress

Brown’s Announcement Email

Over the past two weeks, I’ve heard from many of you – my friends, neighbors and supporters who have urged me to consider running for office. It’s a humbling experience. I’m truly grateful for the confidence that you have in me.

I decided that I would run for office once again only if I believed in my heart that I still had something to give back to our community – the community where I’ve raised my children and dedicated my life to public service.

After serious reflection, prayer and discussion with my wife Karmen and our three children, we are very excited to announce my candidacy for Maryland’s Fourth Congressional District.

For my entire adult life, beginning with the years that I served on active military duty with the 3rd Infantry Division in Germany, I’ve gotten up and out of bed every day ready to serve my neighbors and our nation. From Germany, to a tour of duty in Iraq, to serving two-terms as a State Delegate representing Prince George’s County, to fighting every day for eight years as your Lieutenant Governor, I’ve seen the struggles, challenges, dreams and aspirations that are shared by families throughout Maryland and the 4th Congressional District.

The stakes are high in Washington, but they’re even higher for hard-working families right here in Prince George’s and Anne Arundel Counties.

The dreams of owning a home, and the reality of declining home values, loss of equity and foreclosures; the aspirations of going to college, and the struggles of oppressive student loan debt; the hope of one day retiring comfortably, and the worry that Social Security might not be there when you do; the positive news of post-recession job growth, and the despair of the growing wealth gap and need for small, women and minority owned businesses to access the billions of dollars of spending at the federal level to grow our local economy and jobs; the desire to live and raise a family in a safe neighborhood, and the disturbing fact that too many young black and Latino men fear that they cannot freely walk the streets without profiling and excessive force by law enforcement.

Families in the 4th District have been fortunate to have a leader like Donna Edwards fighting for them every day. With your support, I’ll continue that fight.

For the past 16 years, I’ve had the opportunity to work for you while serving in public office. As a two-term State Delegate working throughout neighborhoods from Suitland to Lake Arbor, and during my eight years as your Lieutenant Governor working with communities from Laurel to Oxon Hill and throughout Anne Arundel County, we’ve worked tirelessly to improve our schools, reduce crime, expand access to healthcare, and create jobs. But our work is far from done.

Together, we’ll fight for every family, regardless of where you live and where you’re from, by ensuring economic security for all. Under President Obama’s leadership, we’ve made great progress, but it’s not enough until everyone who is willing to work hard can find a good job with a family-supporting wage. Our work continues until each of us has access to affordable housing and are protected against foreclosure, and our seniors can retire with the peace of mind that Social Security benefits will be protected and their pensions won’t be raided.

Together, we’ll make sure that every child, regardless of where you live and where you’re from, gets a world-class education. We’ll get it done by establishing universal pre-kindergarten, delivering on President Obama’s call for free community college and providing additional college scholarships, grants, and loans. We will eliminate the achievement gap in education.

Together, we’ll ensure our national security and safety in every neighborhood. We’ll provide the resources needed to ensure that our nation is strong and secure against foreign threats, while also providing our communities with the support needed to reduce crime with community-based and community-involved law enforcement strategies.

I’m running to represent you because I believe in a future where everyone has the opportunity to succeed, not just the privileged few.

I know this isn’t going to be easy, but nothing worth fighting for ever is.

Our best days are still ahead of us. I’m energized to continue the conversation with folks like you about how we can work together to create a better future for our families, our small businesses, our schools and all of our neighborhoods.

Thank you for your support and I hope you’ll stay in touch by following me on Facebook and Twitter.

Anthony Brown

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environment, Montgomery County Council

Pesticides Won’t Kill This Debate

George Leventhal Debates the Issue on WMAL

Council President George Leventhal and Councilmember Marc Elrich have taken the lead on a measure that would create new county regulations regarding the use of pesticides. Specifically, their bill would:

  • “require posting of notice for certain lawn applications of pesticide;”
  • “prohibit the use of certain pesticides on lawns;”
  • “prohibit the use of certain pesticides on County-owned property;”
  • “require the County to adopt an integrated pest management program for certain County-owned property.”

The bill would not impact the application of pesticides on farm land in the County’s Agricultural Reserve but it would affect public County ball fields as well as private property. Montgomery County is usually strongly in favor of environmental regulations but these have already generated controversy that is likely to heat up.

Whatever you think of the bill, it was a gutsy piece of legislation to introduce precisely because of the heated debate. While gaining further support from the environmental community, Leventhal and Elrich risk facing a real backlash from opposed voters.

My understanding is that members of the Council tried to draft a compromise bill that would garner support, or at least acquiescence, from potential major opponents. However, that initiative having failed, Council President Leventhal decided that he might as well take the heat for introducing a firmer measure since he could not gain backing for a more moderate bill.

While funding for core services has been the hot debate in past years due to large budget cutbacks, this promises to attract the interest of many on both sides.

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Anthony Brown, Congress

Brown to Announce for Fourth on Thursday

BrownUlman

Anthony Brown’s Concession Speech Last November

The Washington Post is reporting that former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown will announce his candidacy for the Fourth Congressional District tomorrow.

Brown performed well in Prince George’s last year–gaining 76.7% of the vote in the primary and 84.2% in the general. But turnout was low in both contests. Moreover, he will face a very different field that will include other African-American and Prince George’s candidates, including former State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey.

Brown undoubtedly has a great fundraising network after last year’s election. But it remains unclear how willing they will be to open their pockets again after last November’s stunning loss and how voters see Brown at this point. He will also have to retool his message for a federal rather than state election.

Still, many may admire a man who picks himself up after a big loss. And he has an admirable personal story of having served in Iraq while a member of the House of Delegates. Like President Obama, he is a Harvard Law School graduate.

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