A real barn burner in Hawaii’s Senate primary! Gov. Neil Abercrombie, who was trounced in his primary, appointed Sen. Brian Schatz to a US Senate vacancy. However, Sen. Daniel Inouye reiterated shortly before his death that he wished to see Rep. Colleen Hanabusa succeed him and she challenged Schatz. President Obama endorsed Schatz for reelection.

Schatz now leads by 1635 votes with all results counted. However, two precincts with about 8000 registered voters in Hawaii County will vote late by mail due to the storms that hit Hawaii. But only 38.4% of registered voters cast ballots statewide. If turnout remains the same in these two precincts as statewide, that leaves just 3072 ballots.

Hanabusa would need to gain nearly 77% of these 3072 votes to win. It seems certain, however, that both camps will make a press for heavy turnout in these two precincts. Assuming all 8000 voted. Hanabusa would require 60% of ballots to tie Schatz. Still a tall order, as on the island of Hawaii, Schatz now leads 48.8% to 47.8%–similar to his statewide lead.

I don’t know these two precincts–they may radically different from other Hawaii precincts–but it looks as if it is Sen. Schatz’s nomination to lose at this point.