Category Archives: General Assembly

General Assembly, redistricting

MD State Redistricting: Where Will Be Over or Underrepresented?

Data calculated by author.

The General Assembly is moving forward with the redistricting plan recommended by the Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission.

Redistricting in America emphasizes population equality very heavily. Congressional plans have been overturned by federal courts for unjustified deviations from population equality of as little of 20 people. Many states adopt plans in which the most populous district has only one more person than the least populous district to insulate them from challenges on these grounds.

The federal courts have usually given state legislative plans more wiggle room, though they have not always deferred to jurisdictions that meet a standard of having deviations less than 5 percent above or below the ideal population, or 10 percent total.

The Maryland plan meets the 10 percent standard but the cumulative impact of variations in legislative district size across multiple districts within some jurisdictions may raise eyebrows. Some counties are noticeably over or underrepresented compared to others.

The table at the top of this post shows the legislative district (LD) entitlement of various jurisdictions based on population. Each LD elects one senator and three delegates with some divided into two or three subdistricts for purposes of delegate elections.

The table further reveals the how many LDs were allocated to jurisdictions along with the difference from their entitlement based on population. The final column shows the same information in terms of the number of delegates, which is just three times larger than for the entire LD. Where a proposed subdistrict or district spans a county line, I allotted the representation from the district based on population.

Most areas are quite close to their population entitlement, but a few areas stand out as winners and losers. Together Baltimore City and County have nearly an entire delegate more than they are entitled to based on population. Baltimore City has 55% of a delegate more than entitled to based on population while neighboring Baltimore County has 44% more.

Meanwhile, Prince George’s has 70% less of a delegate than it merits based on population. Prince George’s together with the three southern Maryland counties of Charles, Calvert and St. Mary’s together merit an additional delegate based on population. The Eastern Shore as a whole is also down 28% of a delegate.

Perhaps it is not coincidental that House Speaker Adrienne Jones lives in Baltimore County and the Senate President Bill Ferguson lives in Baltimore City. It is also part of a history of Democrats trying to protect Baltimore City from its long-term population decline.

The City of Baltimore had 11 LDs in 1974 but will be down to 4 2/3 if this plan goes into effect for 2022. Past efforts to preserve City influence by extending existing City districts into Baltimore County led to the Maryland Court of Appeals overturning the 2001 map for General Assembly districts.

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General Assembly

Gov. Hogan Vetoes Kirwan, HBCU Funding & Many Other Bills

I’m posting Governor Larry Hogan’s veto messages below. The big ones are his veto of (1) the implementation of the Kirwan Commission recommendations for new spending on education and (2) funding for HBCUs (historically black colleges and universities). Both set up epic battles with Democrats in the General Assembly that will show the ability of new Speaker Adrienne Jones and Senate President Bill Ferguson to unite their caucuses behind key pieces of their agenda.

The governor vetoed a slew of other spending measures, justifying them based on the current COVID-19 crisis:

He also vetoed new taxes and fees:

Sponsored by Sen. Feldman and Del. Korman, the following vetoed bill made it easier for WMATA to spend more without losing the state’s contribution.

In his veto of a ban on pesticides sponsored by Sen. Lam and Del. Stein, the Governor claims he has accomplished essentially the same through more sensitive regulation:

Gov. Hogan vetoed legislation sponsored by Sen. Young and Del. Healey that would have limited the power of the Board of Public Works regarding land acquisition:

Gov. Hogan also vetoed this bill sponsored by first-term Del. Solomon that would have piloted MARC service between Union Station and Alexandria as well as between Perryville and Newark, DE:

Gov. Hogan vetoed a bill sponsored by Sen. Waldstreicher that would have banned certain outdoor signs along or near expressways.

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General Assembly, redistricting

Redistricting’s Biggest Losers

The current crop of state legislators is just one year into their current term. But after next year’s session they’ll have to begin grappling with redistricting—one of the most potentially divisive issues that the General Assembly faces. The State Constitution gives Republican Governor Hogan the upper hand in theory. However, the Democratic supermajority can impose their own plan if they remain united.

Population shifts along with Maryland’s requirement to adhere to county and municipal boundaries where possible without violating the federal Voting Rights Act create clear winners and losers in the process.

Which districts are most below the ideal population for a district? Once again, Baltimore City looks set to play an evil game of musical chairs, as its districts will be below the ideal district population. Here are the districts falling shortest in population according to the 2013-2017 American Community Survey estimates:

  1. Baltimore City District 40, 86.5% of ideal.
  2. Baltimore City District 45, 90.6%.
  3. Baltimore City District 41, 91.0%.
  4. Baltimore County District 44B (2 delegates), 92.5%.
  5. Baltimore County District 43, 93.0%.
  6. Allegany/Washington Counties 1C (1 delegate), 93.3%.
  7. Prince George’s District 25, 93.4%.
  8. Baltimore City District 44A, 93.8%.
  9. Prince George’s District 23A (1 delegate), 94.0%.
  10. Garrett/Allegany Counties 1A (1 delegate), 94.8%.
  11. Prince George’s District 24, 94.8%.
  12. Allegany County 1B (1 delegate), 95.7%.

As these estimates are based on surveys conducted between 2013 and 2017, they likely indicate only 50% of the decade’s changes. Unless population dynamics change a lot towards the end of the 2010s, these areas will likely be farther below the state requirement by the 2020 Census.

When possible, Maryland reallocates prisoners back to their home last place of residence, which may aid some districts a bit but will further hurt districts where prisons are located. For example, prisoners housed at Frostburg located in District 1, already one of the biggest losers, will be allocated back to their previous residence where possible. As in past decades, District 1 will have to continue its steady march east into Washington County with Garrett’s share of District 1A declining again.

Baltimore City faces a much greater challenge. It currently has five full legislative districts along with a one delegate subdistrict. However, based on the survey, it only now merits 4.85 districts. One delegate is already gone with Subdistrict 44A the obvious nominee to take the hit.

My guess is that, even after adding prisoners back, population figures could make the case for taking one more delegate away (i.e. straddling one district into Baltimore County as now). No doubt Baltimore legislators will fight fiercely to keep the whole district within the City in the name of respecting municipal boundaries. Republicans won’t like this idea but will be ill-positioned to stop it if Democrats can remain united around a plan.

Assuming Baltimore City succeeds in staunching the hemorrhage, Districts 40 would slide west and District 41 would ooze south to eat up disappearing District 44A. Districts 43, 45 and 46 would then move west a bit into current Districts 40 and 41 to even out population across the City a bit. Other line changes could occur if, for example, a powerful legislator wants to draw the home of a possible challenger or successor out or into the district.

The fun and acrimony are just getting started.

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2018 Elections, General Assembly

Your Election Night Senate Scorecard

Earlier tonight, I detailed the list of 24 safe Democratic and 14 safe Republican seats in the General Assembly. Included on that list was any seat that the appropriate party swept in (1) the 2014 gubernatorial election, (2) the 2016 presidential election, and (3) the 2014 state legislative elections.

Sen. Bobby Zirkin (D-11) should really have been included on the safe list, as he enviably has no opponent. Though Hogan won the seat by 14 in 2014, Republicans evidently decided not to take on Zirkin in this seat won by Clinton by 24 in 2016.

That leaves eight vulnerable Democratic seats. Republicans need to net five to gain enough seats to uphold a veto should Larry Hogan win election to a second term tomorrow. Today’s scorecard ranks them from most to least vulnerable:

1. District 42 (OPEN) Likely Republican

This Baltimore County district meanders from the City to the Pennsylvania border. Sen. Jim Brochin (D), the most moderate member of the General Assembly, gave up his seat to run for Baltimore County executive. He lost the Democratic nomination by just a hair to Democrat Johnny Oleszewski.

An astute campaigner, Brochin nevertheless held the seat with just 51.6% in 2014. That Brochin held it at all is a credit to his skills. Hogan won it by 42 points-more than any other seat on this list of vulnerable Democratic seats.

Republican Del. Chris West (R-42B) already represents two-thirds of the district and hopes to move to the Senate. Robbie Leonard, his  opponent, is a former chair of the Baltimore County Democratic Central Committee. It’s hard to see how Leonard wins in a district that Clinton lost narrowly in 2016 and that Hogan will likely take by even more in 2018 than four years ago. But anything is possible if Democrats perform strongly enough tomorrow.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 54% D, 32% R, 13% other.

2. District 8 (Kathy Klausmeier) Toss Up

Though not the most Republican seat on this list, Sen. Kathy Klausmeier is nonetheless the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat running for reelection. She is facing her toughest contest yet as she hopes to fend off Republican Del. Christian Miele.

This east Baltimore County district barely went for Clinton in 2016 just two years after Hogan won it by 36. In many ways, it resembles neighboring District 6, which had long been held by Democrats until it fell to a Republican sweep in 2014 and took down Johnny O’s Senate ambitions with them.

While D6 is 6% more African American than D8, it too has many white voters who find Trump appealing and among whom Hogan is the consensus choice. Miele is a strong candidate with fewer vulnerabilities than other Republican challengers, notwithstanding his odd links to marijuana lobbyist Max Davidson.

Republicans already hold two of the delegate seats. One wonders if any less well attuned Democrats than Sen. Klausmeier and Del. Bromwell would have a shot in a district that seems to be moving away from them. It doesn’t help Democrats that the Jealous campaign doesn’t speak to the concerns of this district’s voters even as Hogan remains quite appealing.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 56% D, 32% R, 12% other.

3. District 38 (Jim Mathias) Toss Up

No Democrat other than Sen. Jim Mathias would even have a prayer in this seat. Trump beat Clinton by 28 points and Hogan defeated Brown by 40 points in this southeastern Eastern Shore district. Republicans took all three of the delegate districts in 2014. So why isn’t Del. Mary Beth Carozza just waltzing into this seat?

Like Larry Hogan, Jim Mathias has his own brand. Neither would have a hope of winning if they were heavily identified with their political party. It also doesn’t hurt that former Ocean City Mayor Mathias has represented all of D38, while Carozza now serves just one-third of it in the House of Delegates.

There are two hugely contrasting trends here. The electorate can only be more favorable to Mathias than in 2014 when Democratic turnout sagged terribly. On the other hand, my bet is Hogan wins by even more than four years ago.

Mathias will always have a target on his back. But he has his own brand and the financial backing needed for his campaign. By all rights, Republicans should win this one but Mathias may well keep them at bay for another four years.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 43% D, 45% R, 12% other.

4. District 3 (Ron Young) Toss Up

In contrast to Klausmeier’s Baltimore County district, Young’s Frederick County district seems to be moving towards the Democrats. Clinton won it by 8 in 2016 and Hogan’s 15 point 2014 win was less impressive than other similar areas.

More Democratic voters keep moving into the area, resulting in the shift that has already turned Frederick from a red Republican bastion into a decidedly purple county. In the most recent Frederick City elections, Democrats convincingly ousted Republicans.

The problem for Democrats here is Young fatigue. A solid member of the Senate, Young has nevertheless been around Frederick politics a long time in a year when experience is seen as code for outdated and untrustworthy by many. His opponent, Craig Giangrande, has no political experience but a lot of cash.

Young won by a bare majority four years ago when he earned a second Senate term. The more congenial composition of the electorate combined with long-term trends ought to help him out even if Hogan is well positioned to pad his margins here. Democrats will nonetheless want to get out every last vote to hold this seat.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 56% D, 28% R, 16% other.

5. District 30 (OPEN) Toss Up

Sen. John Astle (D) is stepping down after an unsuccessful run for mayor of Annapolis. Democrat Sarah Elfreth represents a young but  politically experienced and savvy fresh face. In a year when voters seem interested in new candidates, she combines it with an utterly capable and trustworthy pair of hands.

The district is not easy territory for Democrats. Clinton lost it by 1 in 2016 and Brown fell 29 points short in 2014. Note, however, that this is still 7 points better than in Klausmeier’s district. The likelihood that the electorate will be more congenial in 2018 than 2014 for Democrats will also aid Elfreth.

Elfreth also benefits from her opponent, former Del. Ron George, who is 65 and been around the political block. He won his seat by coming in third place in District 30 in 2006 but came in second when he won reelection in 2010.

Someone edited his Wikipedia page to state that George came in fourth in the Republican gubernatorial primary in 2014. This seems a bit kind since fourth was also last with just 12% of the vote. Even in District 30, he won only 30% of the primary vote.

George’s love for conspiracy theories and Hitler memes isn’t helping his comeback bid. If elections were solely about candidate talent, Elfreth would win this in a slam dunk. As it stands, George is helping Elfreth’s efforts to keep him a has been in a district that ought to be congenial to Republican suasion. Democrats also hope that the shellacking they gave Republicans in the Annapolis elections bodes well for tomorrow.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 53% D, 31% R, 15% other.

6. District 32 (OPEN) Lean Democratic

Del. Pam Beidle has already represented this entire district. A talented candidate well attuned to her district despite being more liberal than the Democrat she seeks to replace, Beidle is the favorite.

Her opponent, Anne Arundel Councilman John Grasso, is term limited off the Council. Like Ron George, John Grasso is social media challenged with a penchant for online nuttery. Unlike George, he is still in office so better known.

District 32 leans far less Republican than the more vulnerable districts higher up on this list. Clinton won it by 12 in 2016, though Hogan carried it by 17 in 2014. Unless Hogan has longer coattails or Grasso proves more formidable than expected, Beidle is the favorite to move from the House to the Senate.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 61% D, 24% R, 15% other.

7. District 12 (OPEN) Likely Democratic

Democratic Nominee Clarence Lam is a first-term delegate seeking to hold the seek being vacated by B&T Chair Ed Kasemeyer. Clinton won this turf in Howard and Baltimore Counties by 17 points in 2016 while Hogan won it by 11 in 2014.

Howard is one the most highly educated places in our highly educated state. Put another way, it’s exactly the sort of place where people are moving away from the Republicans in the era of Donald Trump. Unless Hogan inspires partisan loyalty totally at odds with his carefully cultivated persona, Lam should win this one.

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 65% D, 20% R, 15% other.

8. District 27 (Miller) Likely Democratic

This district makes the list for a few reasons. First, it is the final crosspressured district that went for Clinton and Hogan. Interestingly, District 27 seems to have lesser tendencies for ticket splitting based on the relatively small difference between their performances compared to elsewhere in the state. The relatively small share of non-major party early voters (see below) also is suggestive of a more partisan electorate.

Second, Republicans are always tempted by the fantasy of taking out the longest serving legislative leader in American history. But you don’t survive in that position for so long based on dumb luck, so the dream seems likely to remain a dream. Nevertheless, I hope this inspires someone in the Senate President’s office to call and yell at me. I always enjoy hearing from them!

Early Vote + Returned Absentees: 66% D, 24% R, 10% other.

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2018 Elections, General Assembly

The Safest General Assembly Seats

By my estimation, Democrats start out the 2018 election with majorities in the bag in both houses of the General Assembly. In the Senate, Democrats have very safe bets in 24 of the 47 seats, as compared to just 14 for the Republicans. These 24 alone would be just enough to give the Democrats a Senate majority.

In the House of Delegates, Republicans have a base of 45 seats, or just under one-third of the total. The Democrats look ready to sail back to the majority with a base of 74 seats, or three more than needed for a bare majority.

I’ve classified as “safe” here any seat that the appropriate party won in the (1) 2014 gubernatorial election, (2) 2016 presidential election, and (3) 2014 state legislative elections. I deemed the latter condition as met only if the party carried all of the seats in the Senate and House of Delegates up for election in the identical boundaries.

Republicans have outside hopes in the District 28 Senate race, where incumbent Sen. Mac Middleton was upset in the primary by Arthur Ellis. However, it seems unlikely that Republicans will take a seat that Clinton won by 23 points. Brown won it by only 4 points but the seat has trended more Democratic since 2014 and the electorate should be less favorable to Republicans this year.

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General Assembly

Kim Propeack: Why Naming Names Isn’t So Simple

By Adam Pagnucco.

With the #Metoo movement continuing to impact society, the actions of the General Assembly to limit harassment and abuse are coming under scrutiny.  As a result, some are calling for harassment victims to start naming names.  Senator Cheryl Kagan (D-17) and House candidate Sara Love (D-16) did just that last week.  But there’s another side to this.  On Friday, Kim Propeack, CASA de Maryland’s long-time political and communications director, commented on why naming names isn’t so simple on Facebook.  With her permission, we reprint her remarks below.

*****

The raging debate about the testimony before the Womens Caucus on sexual harassment in the Maryland legislature has been fascinating. I am so proud of Nina Smith and so many others that came forward. But I have been absolutely perplexed by the comments from colleagues and on fb and other platforms expressing confusion about why people do not come out publicly. I want to share two stories from my own career that I think illustrates perfectly the thinking and or impact that challenging abuse in the legislature can have.

Many moons ago, my buddy Natali Faní-González testified against an anti-immigrant bill supported by then freshmen Delegates McDonough and Impallaria, both notorious anti-immigrants. As she and I left the committee room and stood in the hallway, we were accosted by the two delegates. Impallaria stood over Natali yelling at the top of his lungs that Natali must be an illegal. To underscore how racially targeted this was, Natali may have been literally the only Latina lobbyist or staffer in Annapolis at that time. McDonough was similarly standing over me screaming at me in the middle of the hallway. A male lobbyist who saw this going on ran over to physically block McDonough because he appeared close to striking me. McDonough then shoved that lobbyist and me to the ground. Natali and I filed ethics complaints against the two delegates. Finding of insufficient evidence despite the fact that this occurred in front of hundreds of people. But the male lobbyist who came to my aid let us know he really wanted the whole thing to go away. He said, “I have a professional career to think about.” He didn’t think he would be taken seriously in the future if he was embroiled in an ethics process.

Move ahead to my other example. In 2003, the late great Senator Gwen Britt was the lead Senate sponsor of the MD DREAM Act. And so her Chief of Staff decided that I should date him (I am not not naming that dude; I seriously don’t remember his name.) After weeks of uncomfortable conversations with him, I spent a particularly queasy hour on the phone with him dodging his repeated requests to go out on date while he poured over my looks what we would do, etc. I repeatedly went back to the stupid trope about how really it wasn’t him but I was involved with someone. I didn’t want to insult him because he was staffing my priority bill. So finally, I shut down the conversation with a definitive no. The following day, he starts actively undermining passage of the bill. He recruited people in the Senator’s district to attack her for having introduced the bill and recruited anti-immigrant voices to come down to Annapolis and testify against. Despite his efforts, the bill was voted out of the General Assembly. Then onto the Governor. This guy, the Chief of Staff to the lead sponsor of the bill, then recruited people to reach out to the Governor’s office to veto the bill.

I’m not laying Ehrlich’s decision at his feet. Bobby Ehrlich could be stupid on his own. But me as a relatively seasoned activist and certainly no wilting flower, got a serious lesson on how much more difficult your life gets when you don’t play game. And more importantly, how much the folks you are working for can be hurt. These are just two incidents among the various grab ass and more across the years. But I thought they were particularly relevant to respond to the Why Don’t We Just Name Names question.

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Cheryl Kagan, General Assembly

Kagan Names a Name

By Adam Pagnucco.

One of the things that has been missing so far in the #Metoo movement’s impact on Annapolis is the naming of actual perpetrators of sexual harassment.  Well, that ends now.  Senator Cheryl Kagan (D-17) has issued a statement on official letterhead accusing former District 16 Delegate and current lobbyist Gilbert J. Genn of touching her inappropriately.  (Genn was once a member of the House Judiciary Committee and Chair of the Subcommittee on Criminal Justice.)  Think on this, folks: if a lobbyist is behaving this way with a person of power – a State Senator! – what is happening to others?

We reprint Kagan’s statement below.

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General Assembly, veto overrides

General Assembly Overrides Hogan’s Veto on Sick Leave

Yesterday, the House of Delegates overrode Hogan’s veto by an 88-52 margin. Today, the Senate followed suit and voted 30-17 to do the same. This is a major loss for Hogan who lobbied hard for the General Assembly to sustain his veto.

According to the bill synopsis, the legislation will require “employers with 15 or more employees to provide employees with earned sick and safe leave that is paid at the same wage rate as the employee normally earns.” Smaller businesses will have to provide unpaid sick leave.

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General Assembly

2018 Maryland House of Delegates Ratings, Part II

Continuing from yesterday’s list of safe Democratic seats in the House of Delegates, today’s post looks at safe Republican seats. All were carried by Trump in 2016 and Hogan in 2014. At 31% of the House, the 44 safe seats fall well short of being able to sustain a veto by a Republican governor.

Western Maryland

As with the Democrats, Republicans dominate certain regions of the state to their electoral benefit. They have nine safe seats in Western Maryland, a region with Republican loyalties dating back to the Civil War, like in much of Appalachia.

One delegate district (1A) centered on Garrett is arguably the safest GOP turf in the state. Portions of Allegany and Washington Counties used to be hotly contested with Democratic Speaker Cas Taylor hailing from Cumberland. Those days are over, as districts 1B, 1C, 2A, and 2B hold five more safe Republican seats.

Unlike the other Frederick County district,  District 4 is very safe Republican territory. It excludes the City of Frederick along with the southwestern portion of the County most oriented towards Washington, and can be depended up to elect three GOP delegates.

Eastern Shore and Southern Maryland

Save for the sole African-American majority subdistrict, the Eastern Shore is now solidly Republican. The districts east of the Bay (35A, 36, 37B, 38A, 38B, 38C) will reliably send nine Republicans to the House of Delegates in 2018.

Excluding heavily Democratic Charles County, Southern Maryland is now a great area for Republicans. Districts 27C, 29A, 29B and 29C centered on Calvert and St. Mary’s Counties are good territory for their four Republican delegates.

Baltimore, Carroll and Harford Counties

Carroll and Harford provide another trove of Republican seats with 5 (Carroll), 7 (Baltimore County and Harford), 34B (Harford), 35B (Cecil and Harford) electing nine more Republicans. District 42B, which takes in much of northern Baltimore County, has also been safe Republican turf for two more delegates.

Dundalk District 6 in Baltimore County is relatively new to electing Republicans. Before 2014, it sent three Democrats to the House of Delegates. Now, Republicans seem well ensconced in this working class white district at all level of government.

Anne Arundel and Howard Counties

Anne Arundel is a hotly divided county in many elections, such as the 2016 presidential and the 2012 referendum on marriage equality. However, several of its districts tilt heavily Republican–30B, 31B, 33–and will safely elect six Republicans in 2018.

As a whole, Howard tends to list increasingly Democratic. But District 9A, located in the more Republican western part of Howard with a bit of very Republican Carroll County added in for good measure, reliably elects two Republican delegates.

Conclusion

Bringing it all together, there are 44 solidly Republican seats:

Western Maryland: 9
Eastern Shore: 9
Southern Maryland: 4
Baltimore and Harford: 11
Carroll: 3
Howard (and Carroll): 2
Anne Arundel: 6

 

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Anne Arundel, Baltimore County, Frederick County, General Assembly, Howard

2018 Maryland Senate Ratings, Part II

Click to Enlarge

Part I discussed ratings for safe and toss-up seats in the Maryland Senate. Today, 7S focuses on the six Lean and Likely Democratic districts.  All are currently held by incumbent Democrats.

Lean Democratic

District 3 (Frederick County). Sen. Ron Young had a real scare in 2014, winning just 50.8% of the vote after defeating incumbent Alex Mooney with 51.1% in 2010. Mooney has since fled to West Virginia where he is now a U.S. Representative.

This part of Frederick has been trending Democratic. Clinton carried D3 by 8. Hogan won by 15, a good margin but less impressive than in several districts held by Democrats in Anne Arundel and Baltimore. As this district has the best Democratic territory in Frederick, Young ought to be able to win a third term.

But Frederick has been hotly contested between the two parties of late and this former Frederick Mayor has sometimes been a controversial figure. My current expectations remain for the GOP to have another go at Young but fall short, though they will force Democrats to scramble to retain the seat.

Likely Democratic

See the map at the bottom of the post for the locations of the five Likely Democratic districts.

District 8 (Baltimore County). Sen. Kathy Klausmeier won an impressive victory in 2014. Though her district went for Hogan by 36 points, she not only won but took 61.2% of the vote. In 2016, Hogan’s impressive margin evaporated as Trump carried D8 by seven-tenths of one percent.

This is an interesting district because, though the incumbent has demonstrated popularity, it remains marginal turf. If Republicans want to make gains, they will have to look here, even if Klausmeier is clearly no easy mark. The district could become competitive with the right Republican candidate and favorable political winds.

District 11 (Baltimore County). Sen. Bobby Zirkin was unopposed for reelection last time around, so what is he doing on this list? Zirkin represents a cross-pressured district that supported Hogan by 14 points even as it then went for Clinton by 24 points.

Zirkin is an active legislator who champions several popular, easy-to-explain causes, such as stronger anti-domestic violence legislation. Nonetheless, if Maryland’s political climate turns against Democrats, this seat could be a surprise domino to fall. The district bears watching even if Zirkin should be in good shape.

District 12 (Howard and Baltimore Counties). Another cross-pressured district, D12 went for Hogan by 11 but Clinton by 17. Budget and Taxation Committee Chair Ed Kasemeyer won reelection with a convincing, albeit a tad lower than Klausmeier, margin of 58.6%.

Kasemeyer has an impressive electoral history (59% in 2014, 59% in 2010, 62% in 2006, 63% in 2002, 57% in 1998, 51% in 1994, 54% in 1986) that will make it difficult for Republicans to break through in increasingly Democratic Howard.

Howard has shown itself willing to vote for particular sorts of Republicans, including County Executive Allan Kittleman, who is liberal on social questions, and Gov. Larry Hogan, who relentlessly ignores them. Can the Republicans find one to challenge Kasemeyer or win the open seat should he choose to retire?

District 27 (Southern Maryland). Mike Miller entered the House of Delegates in 1971, the Senate in 1975 and became the Senate President in 1987, which makes him the longest serving legislative body leader in American history. Sen. Miller has led the Senate for so long that when I interviewed him over the telephone for my college senior thesis in the late 1980s, he was already Senate President.

The Senate President represents a politically diverse district that includes big chunks of Calvert and southeastern Prince George’s Counties as well as smaller bits of Charles and St. Mary’s. The Calvert portion of the district is much more Republican than the portions in Charles or Prince George’s.

Republicans would love to defeat this pillar of the Democratic Party. While he attracts complaints of being too conservative from the left, he fights very hard for members of his caucus, raising a lot of money and directing broader organizational efforts to retain a robust Democratic Senate majority.

This district is also far from totally hostile territory. While Clinton won it by 5 points in 2016, Hogan also carried it by 6 points in 2014. This divergence is a lot smaller than many Maryland legislative districts and is suggestive of tighter partisan loyalties, especially among its sizable African-American minority.

Republicans have not come close to defeating Miller. He won 63% in 2014, 75% in 2010, 70% in 2006, 72% in 2002, 69% in 1998, 68% in 1994, 84% in 1990, and 82% in 1986. (The State Board of Elections has not put the stone tablets with earlier election results online yet.) Despite receiving his lowest percentage since at least the 1980s in 2014, my guess is that Sen. Miller is not going to be beat. Still, the turf is marginal and remains Likely Democratic.

District 32 (Anne Arundel). Yet another cross-pressured district that bears a more than passing resemblance to its nearby counterparts in Baltimore and Howard Counties, this district went for Hogan by 17 but for Clinton by 12.

Moderate Sen. Ed DeGrange would seemingly be a good fit for this district. Except in these highly partisan times, some will argue that an outspoken liberal would do more to stir the troops. Like others listed here, he possesses real electoral experience, winning his seat by 59% in 2014, 60% in 2010, 61% in 2006, 59% in 2002, and 52% in 1998.

The remarkable consistency since his first reelection does not look like the record of someone about to lose his seat. Nevertheless, if Republicans are to make gains, they will look to Anne Arundel and to this district along with District 30.

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