Category Archives: Republicans

Republicans

The Republican Bench

The Statewide Republican bench for 2022 got a whole lot deeper on November 4th.

Alan Kittleman
Pro-Marriage Equality, Anti-Death Penalty former State Senator and Howard County Executive Alan Kittleman is a suburban moderate Republican of the northeastern breed that’s been dying out since the early 90’s–socially liberal and fiscal conservative  with a patrician demeanor.  Kittleman brings a growing base in Howard County to a statewide contest.

Boyd Rutherford
The Lt Governor is supposedly an apolitical technocrat with no desire to run for office at the top of a ticket. But an apolitical technocrat who happens to be an African American from the Baltimore Suburbs with a certain affable charm could be a truly amazing statewide candidate. Food for thought.

Barry Glassman
The new Harford County Executive is a talented fundraiser and represents a rapidly growing jurisdiction with around one-quarter million residents. He has an appealingly home spun way about him and Fallston is not a bad place to start raising money for Governor.

Steve Schuh
If I were picking the Republican nominee for Governor, I’d go with the guy. Dartmouth undergrad. Harvard MBA. Masters in Education from Johns Hopkins. A former Senior Executive at two major investment banks. The incoming Chief Executive of one Maryland’s largest counties (Anne Arundel with nearly 700,000 residents). If that doesn’t spell gubernatorial contender, I don’t know what does.

Now, the most interesting play might be if instead of these guys fighting it out in the primary, they formed a formidable statewide ticket. Boyd Rutherford would be a highly intriguing candidate for Comptroller, and Alan Kittleman would be a credible candidate for Attorney General. With Schuh at the top of the ticket and and Glassman as Lt Governor, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a statewide Republican sweep.

The worst thing for the Democratic establishment to happen on November 4th wasn’t Larry Hogan’s election as Governor. It was the fact that further down ballot, Republican’s now have a legitimate bench of candidates.

Missing someone? Disagree with me? Email johnga.ems@gmail.com

Share
polarization, Republicans, senate

Republican Senate Conservatism Varies–But Not Too Much

GOP SenToday, 7S looks at Republicans using the data provided by Boris Shor and Nolan McCarty of state legislator ideology. Remember that a more positive score indicates a more conservative senator, so the bottom of the table are the most conservative. Put another way, the closer to zero, the more moderate the senator. These scores are for the legislator’s entire career in the General Assembly and include House as well as Senate service.

Republican scores range from 0.330 for Sen. George Edwards (R-Garrett, Allegany and Washington) and 1.200 for Senator-Elect Gail Bates (R-Howard). (Three incoming Republican senators do not have scores because they have never served in the General Assembly.) In contrast, the most progressive Democrat, Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-Montgomery), has a score of -1.864 and the most moderate Democrat, Sen. Jim Brochin (D-Baltimore County) receives a rating of -0.285.

Two of the three most moderate Republicans represent Western Maryland–Edwards and Sen. Christopher Shank (R-Washington). However, the two Eastern Shore Republicans are not close ideologically with Senator-Elect Addie Eckardt (R-Mid Shore) more moderate than Sen. Steve Hershey (R-Upper Shore).

Similarly, the two Anne Arundel senators are not an ideological matched set. Sen. Ed Reilly (R-Anne Arundel) is the second most conservative senator while Sen. Bryan Simonaire (Anne Arundel) is more moderate, though the ideological distance is smaller than for the two Shore Republicans.

Perhaps most critical is that all Republicans are notably more conservative than all Democrats. The distance between the most moderate Democrat and Republican (0.615) is greater than that between the most conservative Republican, Senator-Elect Bates, and the second most “moderate” Republican, Senator-Elect Eckardt. And even the most moderate Republcian, Sen. Edwards, is closer to all but three Republicans than the most moderate Democrat.

Share
counties, Democrats, General Assembly, polarization, Republicans

Regional Political Chasm Expands

maryland-county-map

America in Miniature has very distinct political regions. I’ve divided Maryland into seven here. Republicans eliminated many of the remaining Democratic officeholders in 2014 in three rock-ribbed Republican regions–Western Maryland, Eastern Shore, and Outer Baltimore Bastions. Democrats retain iron grips on the Washington Suburbs and Baltimore City. These areas have very completely different interests and perspective on key issues facing the State.

Among the two remaining regions, Southern Maryland is really divided into two areas moving strongly in opposite directions, which just reinforces the divisions between the other regions. However, the four counties in the Swingy Outer Suburbs constitute the more marginal political territory in Maryland elections. Often up for grabs, Republicans advanced in 2014 through impressive gains in this important region.

Western Maryland

District 1 and 2 are located entirely within Garrett, Allegany, and Washington counties, and both will send entirely Republican delegations to the General Assembly. Their county commissions are also all one-party affairs. Hogan won between 75% and 80% of the vote in these three counties.

Eastern Shore

The Eastern Shore contains nine counties: Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s Dorchester, Caroline, Talbot, Somerset, Wicomico, and Worcester. Districts 35A, 36, 37, and 38 are located on the shore (the rest of D35 includes northern Cecil and will be discussed with Harford.) Unsurprisingly, Hogan did well here, taking between 65% and 80% of the vote in the nine Eastern Shore counties.

(Corrections made to this paragraph.) The Shore’s General Assembly delegation is heavily Republican. Majority-black District 37A’s sole delegate is the only Democratic delegate as compared to nine Republicans. Thanks to the political talent of Sen. Jim Mathias, the Democrats also hold one of the Shore’s three Senate seats. Republicans also dominate country government with 34 commission or council seats to just 11 for the Democrats.

Republicans hold all seats on the commissions or councils of Cecil, Queen Anne’s, Caroline, and Talbot Counties. They also form majorities in Wicomico and Worcester Counties. Democrats hang on to majority status by a single seat in Dorchester, Kent, and Somerset Counties–three of the Shore’s smaller counties.

Baltimore City

All six senators and sixteen delegates from the City are Republicans Democrats (Districts 40, 41, 43, 45, and 46 in their entirety as well as District 44A). The Democrats sweep city elections with similar regularity. Hogan won 22% of the vote in the City–not too bad really for a statewide Republican candidate.

Washington Suburbs

Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties are the two other large Democratic bastions. Together they contribute 16 senators and 47 delegates to the Democratic majorities in the General Assembly (Districts 14-27, 39, 47 but 27C is completely outside of Prince George’s). Democrats also easily mop up the seats on both county councils. Hogan received 37% of the vote in Montgomery but only 15% in Prince George’s.

Southern Maryland

The three counties of southern Maryland have been trending in two different directions. While growth, particularly that related to the Navy, has tilted Calvert and St. Mary’s increasingly Republican, growing African-American suburbanization has pushed Charles in the other direction.

Democrats now control the senator and three delegates from Charles (District 28) and hold all county offices. On the other hand, Republicans hold the one senator and four delegates elected entirely from St. Mary’s and Calvert (District 29 and District 27C), as well as completely dominate county offices. Hogan won 69% in Calvert and 73% in St. Mary’s. Though Hogan lost Charles, he showed surprising strength at 47% in a county that has gone for the Democrats by steadily increasing margins.

Swingy Outer Suburbs

Anne Arundel, Baltimore County, Frederick and Howard are  key pivots in state elections. All went for Hogan–52% in Howard, 59% in Baltimore County, 64% in Frederick, and 66% in Anne Arundel. All have mixed representation on their county councils with Howard heavily Democratic, Baltimore leaning Democratic, Anne Arundel leaning Republican, and Frederick heavily Republican. Republicans hold county executive seats in Anne Arundel and Howard while Democrats claim Baltimore County and Frederick.

Many of the more competitive elections for the General Assembly occur in these four counties, though there are also several solid legislative districts for each party. (Districts 3-4 in Frederick, Districts 6, 8, 10, 11, 42 and 44B in Baltimore, Districts 9, 12, 13 in Howard, District 30-33 in Anne Arundel.)

While Democrats lead 10-5 in Senate seats, they hold a smaller margin of 15-13 in House seats for these counties. Republicans picked up a several seats that Democrats had hoped to take in this region in 2014. Republicans have to continue to do well in these areas if they hope to make inroads in Maryland. All four counties have been moving towards the Democrats in presidential contests.

Outer Baltimore Bastions

Carroll and Harford Counties are Republican dream lands. Hogan was 82% in Carroll and 77% in Harford. Republicans control all county council seats in both places, as well as the executive in Harford.

Republicans now control all but one General Assembly seat, sending four senators and ten delegates to augment the GOP Caucuses. One Democratic delegate hangs on in District 34A. (District 5 is entirely within Carroll and 34 within Harford. District 7 straddles the Baltimore-Harford line but resembles Harford politically. District 35B is split between Cecil and Harford with 35A in Cecil.)

Share
2014 Governor's Race, Republicans, voter fraud

Republicans Claim Voter Fraud

In an eerie reflection of a past Simpsons Halloween special, Republicans are claiming that the Democrats are trying to steal the election in Maryland:

fraudclaim

This sort of claim fits in with the Republican meme (and form of denial) that there is no way Democrats could win elections honestly, even in deep blue Maryland.

Here is why the fraud claim doesn’t make sense to me:

(1) Brian Frosh doesn’t need to steal an election. He is going to win. Easily. And unlike Nixon, he’s not paranoid enough to do it anyway.

(2) If one was going to program the machines to commit fraud, it makes no sense to show it on the final overview ballot page.

(3) But let’s imagine this is how it occurred anyway. Even if only 1 in 5 voters noticed the fraud on the overview page, there would be numerous reports of the problem.

(4) Democrats want to replace the machines. Let’s hope we can get a bipartisan consensus to spend the money in the next General Assembly.

I’m not a fan of conspiracy theories from either party. If something went wrong with this machine or this ballot, I look forward to it being investigated. But the cries from the GOP of fraud have consistently been far louder than their commentary when such claims are debunked.

Share
Anne Arundel, District 31, Don Dwyer, Republicans

Dwyer’s Quiet Weekend and Simonaire Challenge

Now I know why Del. Don Dwyer didn’t vote on marijuana decriminalization. He’s unavailable on weekends:

Del. Don Dwyer Jr., spends weekends in the county jail in Glen Burnie, serving time for convictions last year on charges of drunken driving and drunken boating. His absence — he checks into jail on Friday evenings and is released on Sunday nights — means the Republican can’t vote on matters that are being decided on the final weekend of the 2014 General Assembly session.

He also has lost his committee assignments, which renders him even more ineffective than usual. Dwyer was not expelled because his offenses were misdemeanors unrelated to his work in the House. Besides his conviction after having caused injury to seven people in the boat accident, Dwyer is probably best known for his strident social conservatism and opposition to LGBT rights, as he believes that gays and lesbians are a “threat to children.”

D31B

He has filed for reelection from District 31B. House Minority Leader Nic Kipke is running as well in the two-seat district, as are six other Republicans. One of them is 24-year old Meagan Simonaire:

Simonaire, the daughter of state Sen. Bryan Simonaire, is a cosmetologist with a degree from Bob Jones University in South Carolina. She said she grew up in a political family and has a history of political activism.

If elected, the two Simonaires would be the only father-daughter Senate-House duo.

Share
Montgomery County, Republicans

The Sad State of the MoCo GOP

For a Democrat, I seem to spend a lot of time lately lamenting the one-party nature of Montgomery County politics (see here and here):

It is difficult to hold officials accountable when there is essentially no viable “out” party. It increases factionalism on the Council and makes it easier for councilmembers to shift positions without consequence.

Much of the root of the problem lies with the Republican Party. The sharp rightward shift of the national GOP has tarnished its brand severely in a County that was long quite willing to elect candidates who were center right on economics but liberal on social questions.

The Maryland Republican Party has undergone its own unhelpful internal gyrations. More moderate Republicans have been purged in primaries in parts of the State in a reflection of the national trend. Former U.S. Sen. Mac Mathias would not have a prayer of winning a Republican primary in Maryland today. Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich is probably now a member of the left wing of the Maryland GOP.

The deterioration in the value of the Montgomery GOP is reflected in the candidates it attracts and the campaigns they run. They just can’t get good people to run and are not living up to the legacy of respected and well-liked Montgomery Republicans like Connie Morella, Betty Ann Krahnke, Howard Denis, and Jean Roesser.

Montgomery Republicans want to “end one party rule” but they need to offer a platform and candidates that appeal. Their interest and ability to do so seems decidedly limited. A pity not just for the Montgomery Republicans but for Montgomery voters.

Share
District 37, Eastern Shore, Primaries to Watch, Republicans, senate

Colburn v. Eckardt in Top Senate Primaries III

D37Eastern Shore District 37

This is the third in a series on the top Senate primaries in the State (Part I and Part II).

District 37 (R): This primary matchup between Sen. Richard Colburn and Del. Adelaide (Addie) Eckardt is almost as personal as the one previewed yesterday in neighboring District 36. Colburn and Eckardt have served together in the General Assembly since 1995. According to The Quinton Report, Colburn walked up to Eckardt and on the night she filed and said “You used to be my friend.”

Colburn was elected in 1982 to the first of two terms in the House of Delegates. In 1990, he sought the Republican congressional nomination and came in third with 12% of the vote in a highly fractured contest. When very conservative Democratic Sen. Frederick Malkus, Jr., retired, Colbun won election to the Senate in 1994, easily winning the primary and then the general by 10%.

Eckardt is the most serious challenger Colburn has faced since gaining his Senate seat. Beyond being smart and likeable, she has also represented most of the same people as Colburn for nearly two decades. They are both known quantities.

Colburn also goes into the primary with less money than Eckardt as he has $32K in his campaign account to her $44K. Neither can raise money during the session, so they will have little time to raise much more before the primary occurs in June.

One advantage held by Colburn is that he already represents all of District 37. Eckardt represents District 37B, which elects two of the three delegates. Much of the advantage, however, is illusory. District 37A was drawn as a majority-black district, and so has comparatively few Republicans. In 2012, only 18.5% of registered Republicans lived in 37A–only around one-half what one would expect if Republicans were evenly distributed.

Moreover, Eckardt has decided to strike when Colburn is at his weakest. He has been under scrutiny for ethics questions, having spent “more than $40,000 in meals, gas, lodging, flowers and Baltimore Orioles tickets” out of his campaign funds, as reported in the Daily Times. The article has led to editorials calling for Colburn to “clean up his finances.”

On top of that, Colburn has had a very public divorce with allegations of an affair with his aide. His now ex-wife was even thinking of running against him but agreed to support him politically once they agreed to a divorce settlement.

Eckardt also appears more respected in the General Assembly than Colburn. While the number of Republican senators remains few, Colburn has somehow never managed to hold a Republican leadership position according to his bio. Eckardt chaired the House Republican Caucus for five years. However, it’s well known that a lack of respect in the Assembly often has little relation to political support at home.

In her remarks to the press, Eckardt expressed an interest in policy, even speaking about making health care reform work, rather than the usual staple of Republican talking points:

“Even though there’s been a lot of difficulty with the exchange, this is one of the most exciting times to be here in Annapolis because we’ve had 140,000 new people get on the Medicaid medical assistance who didn’t have heath care ­before, and that’s really important,” ­Eckardt said. “But we have to make sure it’s cost-effective and we have to make sure that, as we go forward, it’s a functioning system, because otherwise we would just be putting more money in technology and not getting the results. I’d rather see money go to care for individuals.”

Yet, she remains a firm conservative, especially on social questions. Colburn tends to position himself more as a regional champion, playing on the Shore as a victim of the State.

Needless to say, this will be an exciting contest. They’re both from Dorchester so neither has a home bailiwick. If anyone can topple Colburn, it should be Eckardt. Both seats in 37B will be open, so this race will likely feature high turnout amid an unusual level of interest in state legislative contests. Rating: Toss Up.

UPDATE: A friend on the Eastern Shore says that Colburn provides very good constituent services and has a reputation of being very responsive to individual requests, which will aid him in his hour of need in this tough primary.

Share