Category Archives: Republicans

New MoCo GOP Chair Throws Predecessors Under the Bus

March 5, 2021 Adam Pagnucco

By Adam Pagnucco.

Our post yesterday – MoCo Republicans in Freefall – has caught the attention of the county GOP. In an email sent to his colleagues shortly after our post went up, new MoCo Republican Central Committee Chairman Reardon Sullivan admitted that the party’s decline was real, blamed prior party leaders for their dilemma and listed a number of steps he and others are taking to turn things around.

That’s going to be tough. After all, the local party’s most famous figure is Robin Ficker, it has a long history of infighting and its top field guy (Brad Botwin) sends out regular blast emails attacking “illegal alien criminals/gang members.” Having Donald Trump and Bikini Chewbacca as the two national symbols of the GOP is also unhelpful in MoCo.

Here’s a guy who knows how to communicate.

Sullivan’s email is reprinted below. Grammar and spelling appear as in the email.

*****

Good Morning Central Committee and supporters

This morning’s emails gave us this post from the liberal blog “Seventh State” stating that the Republican Party is in freefall, and they are correct.

The past actors within our local party had failed to respond to changing demographics, utilize technology and support local candidates and initiatives resulting in a significant decline it the party during the past twelve years.

While our local party was asleep at the wheel, our conservative American values continue to be eroded by the liberals and progressives here in Montgomery County… I am dedicated to changing this trajectory but need your help…

We are building a new MCGOP, but this will not happen overnight. We are formally setting up subject matter committees, utilizing technology to reach current and prospective members, doing oppositional research and looking for new ways to lay the groundwork for a successful organization. We are looking for new ways to rebuild our presents in Montgomery County, reaching out to Republicans, independents with soft democrats with basic, clear simple, concise solutions give people reasons to want to be Republican and part of the solution.

In the past two months, we have:

1. Worked on strategies to increase our contact database using BOE data and lists compiled by others.
2. Reviewed our outreach strategies and are considering more tools than ever before.
3. Updated the MCGOP website to with an election tab to provide direction to people to register to vote and change parties. Thanks to Brad Botwin for the idea and Sharon Cohen for the updates.
4. Instituted orientation at MCGOP headquarters, led by Dan Cuda. We currently have double digit sign ups and growing.
5. Anne is working with the woman’s groups regarding legislative initiatives. Sandy is also working the legislative angle and Brad is testifying.
6. Ann is looking at candidate recruitment for both local municipal races as well as the county and state races.
7. Bill is working on Police and SRO issues.

Also critical to our comeback is fundraising as this effort takes money implement. I will personally donate $1000 today to the MCGOP and ask that each to you donate at least 10% or $100 this week.

I want to hear your ideas… feel free to e-mail me personally with “I will” action plans vs “we should” suggestions…

This will be a tough road, but I am confident that working together we can make a difference!!!!

Sully

Adam Pagnucco, Republicans, voter registration

MoCo Republicans in Free Fall

March 4, 2021 Adam Pagnucco

By Adam Pagnucco.

Montgomery County’s Republican Party is in free fall. Consider the following five facts, all derived from data provided by the State Board of Elections.

1. While the numbers of MoCo Democratic and unaffiliated registered voters have been growing, the number of registered Republicans is lower now than in 1988.

In the 1988 primary, there were 110,829 registered Republicans in MoCo. That number peaked at 136,269 in the 1996 general election. Since then, the number of registered Republicans fell to 105,561 in the 2020 general. From the 1988 primary through the 2020 general, growth in MoCo registered voters was 109% for Democrats, 241% for unaffiliated and third party voters and minus 5% for Republicans.

2. The share of registered MoCo voters who are Republicans has fallen by half in the last three decades.

In the 1992 primary, 33% of all registered MoCo voters were Republicans. In the 2020 general, the GOP share fell to 16%. The number of registered unaffiliated and third party voters (156,702 in the 2020 general) greatly exceeds the number of registered Republicans (105,561).

3. The ratio of registered MoCo Democrats to Republicans is at its highest level since at least 1988.

In the 1992 primary, there were 1.6 registered MoCo Democrats for every MoCo Republican. By the 2020 general, there were 3.9 registered MoCo Democrats for every Republican.

4. Among actual voters in MoCo, the share who are Republicans has fallen behind unaffiliated and third party voters while Democrats dominate.

Republicans compete directly with Democrats in general elections. In 1988 and the early 1990s, Republicans comprised 30% or more of actual voters in MoCo general elections, both presidential and gubernatorial. Their share of actual voters fell to 17% in 2018 and 15% in 2020. Unaffiliated and third party voters were 19% of actual voters in 2018 and 21% of actual voters in 2020. Democrats now exceed 60% of actual voters, up from the mid-to-high 50s in the 1990s.

5. MoCo Republican registrations and voting have taken big hits under Donald Trump.

The table below shows changes in MoCo registrations and actual voting by party under the past 5 U.S. presidents. For each president, the general election in which they were first elected is used as the starting point and the general election near the end of their tenure in office is used as the ending point.

Democrats saw surges in registrations under both Bush 43 and Obama and enjoyed a large increase in actual voting under Bush 43. Unaffiliated and third party voters saw significant increases in registrations and voting during most periods although registration growth was slow under Trump. Republican registrations and voting grew under Bush 41 but fell under the next four presidents. Voting decline under Trump was about the same as under Clinton, Bush 43 and Obama, but consider that Trump was the only one of them who served just one term. Republican registration decline was huge under Trump (13%), far exceeding declines under his predecessors.

The GOP was once a factor in MoCo politics. GOP Congresswoman Connie Morella served in Congressional District 8, which accounts for most MoCo voters, from 1987 through 2003. Jim Gleason, who was MoCo’s first county executive in 1970-78, was a Republican. The GOP held county council and state legislative seats in the western and northern parts of the county for years. In the 1994 election, one-quarter of MoCo’s partisan elected offices were won by Republicans. But the last MoCo Republican office holders, District 1 Council Member Howie Denis and District 15 Delegate Jean Cryor, were defeated in 2006 and the party has not come close to winning a seat since.

MoCo Republicans might still matter in two ways. First, they are the third-largest group of Republicans in the state behind Baltimore County and Anne Arundel County. That makes them relevant in statewide GOP primaries for whatever that’s worth. Second, they have money. Republicans from all over the state come to MoCo to raise money just as Democrats do. Republicans might even toss some money to centrist Democrats just to prevent progressives from winning.

Once upon a time, the case could be made that MoCo Republicans were relevant on ballot questions. They certainly played a part in passing term limits four years ago. But given the fact that they are now just 15% of actual voters and their partisan embrace of nine districts helped kill Question D, even that is in question.

Is there anything the local party can do to reverse this free fall? That’s a tough nut to crack. MoCo is a diversifying county that looks nothing like the national Republican base that supported Trump. Not all is politically settled here as there are differences even among county Democrats on taxes, school reopening, school boundaries, criminal justice, land use, housing, economic development and other issues which are likely to surface in Democratic primaries. But it’s hard for county Republicans to be regarded as credible on local issues when their national counterparts are ransacking the U.S. Capitol and defending a seditious former president. Without a national GOP that adopts a very different brand and political strategy from the one it has now, it’s hard to imagine a local GOP reversing the trends above.

Election Violence, Republicans

MoCo Republicans Condemn Violence at the Capitol

January 6, 2021 Adam Pagnucco

By Adam Pagnucco.

Moments ago, the Montgomery County Republican Party issued the statement below.

Statement from MCRCC Chairman Reardon Sullivan:

Today’s rioting and violence in our nation’s capital is an absolutely devastating development during a time of historic upheaval and unrest.

The Montgomery County Republican Party unequivocally and wholeheartedly condemns all acts of lawlessness, rioting, and violence and disavows the actions of those demonstrators who illegally entered the U.S. Capitol Building. While we support peaceful protest, we reject any attempt to disrupt Congress’s certification of the election results. Congress must be allowed to conduct its business uninterrupted.

This is not who we are…

2020 elections, Republicans

MD Republicans Promoting False Election Fraud Claims

November 13, 2020 David Lublin

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has provided a refreshing bit of sanity and leadership by refusing to join the chorus of his fellow Republicans claiming that Democrats stole the presidential election and congratulating President-Elect Joe Biden.

Unfortunately, Maryland Republicans are not following his lead. As the Washington Post reported, U.S. House Rep. Andy Harris (R-1) is propagating unsubstantiated allegations:

Secret unobserved vote counting in the swing states means that we will have to wait until a court unravels what really went on. When that thorough investigation is over, and we know that only legal votes have been counted then we will know who the real winner is – and then and only then we need to move on.

All of Trump’s claims regarding observers have been dismissed around the country. Just a reminder of what happened in the Philadelphia case:

during a hearing for a federal version of that suit on Thursday, Judge Paul Diamond of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania pressed a lawyer for Mr. Trump on whether the campaign’s observers did, in fact, have access to the facility. The lawyer said, grudgingly, that there were “a nonzero number” of people in the room.

Oops.

Meanwhile, Seventh District Republican Nominee Kim Klacik has been promoting groundless claims in Baltimore:

There is voter fraud whether people want to admit it or not. Just so you know, there are people looking into my race as well, and as soon as I have information, I’ll share that.

Winners and Losers of the Ballot Question War

November 9, 2020 Adam Pagnucco

By Adam Pagnucco.

This year, MoCo saw its biggest battle over ballot questions in sixteen years. Most county players lined up on one side or the other and victory has been declared. Who won and who lost?

Winners

Council Member Andrew “Real Deal” Friedson
Friedson authored Question A, which liberalized the county’s property tax system to allow receipts to increase with assessments. Wall Street applauded its passage. Even progressives, who don’t love Friedson but owe him big-time for opening up the county’s revenue stream, have to admit that his Question A was the real deal.

Council Member Evan Glass
Glass authored Question C, which added two district council seats and defeated the nine district Question D. Lots of wannabe politicians are going to look at running for the new seats. Every single one of them should kiss Glass’s ring and write a max-out check to his campaign account.

County Democratic Party
It’s not a coincidence that MoCo voters adopted the positions of the county Democratic Party on all four ballot questions. With partisan sentiments running high and information on the questions running low, MoCo Democrats went along with their party and dominated the election.

David Blair
Blair was the number one contributor to the four ballot issue committees that passed Questions A and C and defeated Questions B and D. By himself, Blair accounted for nearly half the money they raised. Whatever Blair decides to do heading into the next election, he can claim to have done as much to pass the county Democrats’ positions on the ballot questions as anyone. (Disclosure: I have done work for Blair’s non-profit but I was not involved in his ballot question activities.)

Ike Leggett
The former county executive was key in leading the fight against Robin Ficker’s anti-tax Question B and the nine county council district Question D. Thousands of MoCo voters still like, respect and trust Ike Leggett.

Jews United for Justice
While not having the money and manpower of many other groups who played on the questions, Jews United for Justice played a key role in convening the coalition that ultimately won. They have gained a lot of respect from many influencers in MoCo politics.

Facebook
Lord knows how much money they made from all the ballot question ads!

Losers

Robin Ficker
At the beginning of 2020, MoCo had one of the most restrictive property tax charter limits of any county in Maryland. For many years, Ficker was looking to make it even tighter and petitioned Question B to the ballot to convert it into a near-lock on revenues. But his charter amendment provoked Friedson to write Question A, which ultimately passed while Question B failed and will raise much more money than the current system over time. Instead of tightening the current system, the result is a more liberal system that will achieve the opposite of what Ficker wanted – more revenue for the county. This was one of the biggest backfires in all of MoCo political history.

Republicans
The county’s Republican Party did everything they could to pass Ficker’s anti-tax Question B and the nine county council district Question D. In particular, they gave both cash and in-kind contributions to Nine Districts and even raised money for the group on their website. In doing so, the GOP provoked a fierce partisan backlash as the county Democrats rose up to take the opposite positions on the ballot questions and most Democratic-leaning groups combined forces to support them. With President Donald Trump apparently defeated, Governor Larry Hogan leaving office in two years and little prospect of success in MoCo awaiting them, where does the county’s Republican Party go from here?

This tweet by MoCo for Question C from a voting location explains all you need to know about why Question D failed.

Political Outsiders
It wasn’t just Republicans who supported the failed Questions B and D; a range of political outsiders supported them too. What they witnessed was a mammoth effort by the Democratic Party, Democratic elected officials and (mostly) progressive interest groups to thwart them. Even the county chamber of commerce and the realtors lined up against them. Whether or not it’s true, this is bound to provoke more talk of a “MoCo Machine.” Machine or not, outsiders have to be wondering how to win when establishment forces combine against them.

Push

MCGEO, Fire Fighters and Police Unions
These three unions are frustrated. They have not been treated the way they expected by the administration of County Executive Marc Elrich and they are also upset with the county council for abrogating their contracts (among other things). They wanted to show that they could impose consequences for messing with them and that was one reason why all three made thousands of dollars of in-kind contributions to Nine Districts. On the negative side, the nine districts Question D failed. On the positive side, the passage of Friedson’s Question A will result in a flow of more dollars into the county budget over time, a win for their members. So it’s a push. On to the next election.

Dan Cox, District 4, Republicans

Republican Del. Dan Cox Now Using QAnon Hashtags

October 24, 2020 David Lublin

The hashtag #WWG1WGA, associated with the dangerous QAnon conspiracies, was used yesterday in a tweet by Maryland Del. Dan Cox (R-4, Frederick & Carroll). Apparently, the hashtag is short for the QAnon slogan of “where we go one, we go all.”

A member of the Maryland General Assembly is now associating himself with QAnon. Once again, the Maryland Republican Party faces a choice once again of normalizing the crazy and dangerous by joining or ignoring this, or facing it down.

I’d note the Senate Republican leadership recently swung right. Sen. Mike Hough, for example, who represents the same district, is enthusiastic for Trump and quit Washington football after decades because they dropped the name. But Gov. Larry Hogan’s brand is as a more sensible mainstream conservative. As leaders of their party, what will they do?

h/t Walter Olson (@walterolson).

Montgomery County Council, Republicans

New Video Blasts Republicans for Nine Districts Charter Amendment

October 7, 2020 Adam Pagnucco

By Adam Pagnucco.

Residents for More Representation, a ballot issue committee co-chaired by Marilyn Balcombe and Michelle Graham, has released a video blasting Republicans for being behind Question D, the nine council district charter amendment. The video is consistent with facts I have previously written about on Seventh State, including the participation of many prominent Republicans in helping the nine districts effort due to their belief that it could lead to a Republican getting elected to the county council. County Republicans are even fundraising for Nine Districts. Residents for More Representation supports Question C, which would add two district council members, and opposes Question D. Their video appears below.

Andy Harris, Republicans

Harris Won’t Condemn QAnon

October 2, 2020 David Lublin

U.S. Rep. Andy Harris (MD 1) was among the 18 representatives who didn’t support a resolution condemning QAnon, a dangerous whackadoodle pro-Trump conspiracy theory. As the Washington Post explains:

QAnon, which took root on anonymous message boards in 2017, holds that Trump is battling a cabal of deep-state saboteurs who worship Satan and traffic children for sex.
The baseless worldview has been identified by the FBI as among the extremist views “very likely” to motivate violence. Its adherents, according to law enforcement, have been arrested in numerous incidents, including two murders, a kidnapping, vandalism of a church and a heavily armed standoff near the Hoover Dam.

Harris didn’t vote no, but instead chose to vote “present.” This makes him different but no less absolutely bonkers.

Adam Pagnucco, Montgomery County Council, Republicans

Developers, Help Save Maryland Director Contribute to Nine Districts for MoCo

September 30, 2020 Adam Pagnucco

By Adam Pagnucco.

On August 5, I reported that a combination of developers and county employee unions had accounted for most of the Nine Districts for MoCo group’s financial support. At that time, the leading contributors were:

Charles Nulsen, Washington Property Company: $50,000
UFCW Local 1994 MCGEO: $10,000 (in-kind)
Bob Buchanan, Buchanan Partners: $5,000
Fraternal Order of Police: $5,000 (in-kind)
Montgomery County Career Fire Fighters Association PAC: $5,000 (in-kind)
Gingery Development Group: $5,000
Arlene Hillerson (listed as being in real estate): $2,000

Nulsen, Buchanan, Gingery and Hillerson are all in the real estate industry. As of August 5, the four comprised 94% of Nine Districts’ cash receipts.

On August 13, I reported that a number of prominent county Republicans, including seven members of the county party’s central committee, had supported Nine Districts with cash or in-kind contributions. Republicans support a nine district council structure because they believe it might lead to a Republican council seat.

The county Republican Party is asking voters to vote for Question D, which would create nine council districts.

On August 24, Nine Districts amended its financial reports and new information about its contributors is now available. Of notable interest is that Gingery Development Group contributed another $25,000 on August 3 and Willco, a Potomac developer, directed a $15,000 contribution to the group’s campaign consultant, Rowland Strategies of Baltimore, on August 5. If Willco’s contribution, listed as in-kind but relieving the group’s obligation to Rowland, is counted as a cash contribution, that means that 96% of Nine Districts’ cash support has come from developers.

One more interesting fact emerges from the group’s amended financial report: a nine dollar contribution from Brad Botwin. The contribution is probably a response to the county Republican Party’s “$9D for 9D” solicitation for Nine Districts. Botwin is the county GOP’s contact for volunteer opportunities. But he is a lot more than that. Botwin is the director of Help Save Maryland, a group opposing illegal immigration. Help Save Maryland has been designated as a “nativist extremist group” by the Southern Poverty Law Center, provoking a counter-attack describing the center as “a demagogic bully.” Help Save Maryland’s denunciation of an “illegal alien child rapist freed by MoCo County Executive Elrich” is standard fare for the group.

Botwin’s contact info on the MoCo GOP’s website. His phone number has been redacted.

The line between Botwin and Nine Districts is already drawn through the MoCo Republican Party, which supports Nine Districts and lists Botwin as its volunteer contact. If Botwin is more directly involved in Nine Districts than that, that would be big news in MoCo politics.

Adam Pagnucco, police, Republicans, Will Jawando

MoCo Republicans Attack Jawando Over Police Reform

September 15, 2020 Adam Pagnucco

By Adam Pagnucco.

The Montgomery County Republican Party is now running this video attacking Council Member Will Jawando over his efforts to reform the police department.

The GOP is even running a Facebook ad to promote the video.

Not everyone is supportive of the county’s efforts to reform, reimagine and/or defund the police. Our post on the subject, “Free-For-All,” is on track to be the most-viewed post on Seventh State for this month. But getting attacked by Republicans is great for Jawando in building his prestige inside the county’s progressive Democratic base. Jawando should consider offering a subsidy to help the GOP run the ad in Takoma Park and the rest of the Democratic Crescent!

Maryland Politics Watch