Normally, I avoid making my blog a place to make charitable appeals, but these aren’t normal times.

Even at the best of times, too many people in America wonder how they will pay for their next meal. The mass unemployment resulting from the COVID-19 crisis, exacerbated by the federal government’s poor, dithering response, has only made matters worse.

State and local authorities in Maryland are working to rise to the occasion. Here in Montgomery, I know our local government is doing its best to protect the most vulnerable in this nerve wracking time.

But it’s not enough when faced with such overwhelming need.

If you want to help bring just a little more peace of mind to parents trying to figure out how to feed their children or themselves, consider donating to a local food pantry.

In Montgomery County, Manna Food Center has long done outstanding work feeding the hungry. To combat rising hunger during the crisis, for example, they have set up 11 sites around the county where people can pickup food bags to help people stay put and fed. They are also providing meals for children at more than 40 sites around the county.

If you’re fortunate enough to still have your job or riding out the stay-at-home order in relative comfort, I hope you’ll consider a gift to Manna or another organization doing similar work.

The New York Times has the data and the story. Bottom line is that from March 8 through April, 207 people were reported to have died of COVID-19 in the state. But the total death rate for the same period was 700 in excess of normal, suggesting that roughly an additional net 500 people died of COVID-19 or as a result of changes due to the pandemic.

The response to the pandemic has a mixed impact on mortality. After all, fewer people on the roads has resulted in fewer road deaths. On the other hand, some have likely died because they avoided going to the hospital out of fear of catching COVID-19.

The additional 500 deaths includes all of these sorts of effects as well as COVID-19. Nevertheless, it also reflects many unreported COVID-19 deaths of people who were never tested and gives a good rough gauge of its real impact beyond that in the reported deaths statistics.

On April 6th, I posted the University of Washington coronavirus projections for our state They have updated their projections and the news, as throughout the country, is very good in terms of reduced cases and demands on our resources. Today, April 18th, was the day they projected to be our peak resource day back on April 6th, so now seems a good time to revisit.

All ICU beds needed and available:

The total number of ICU beds still exceeds the state’s normal capacity based on the pre-corona number of beds and their use. The good news is that the state has expanded the number of beds and the projected peak need has declined from 1224 beds to 430 beds. Still a high rate of use but more manageable.

All hospital beds needed and available:

On April 6th, UW projected that we’d need a maximum of 6443 hospital beds, way more than the state’s normal availability of 3961. The projection has now declined to 2405, which is within the state’s capacity.

All ventilators needed and available.

UW expected that we’d need 1040 ventilators in their April 6th projections. Now, Maryland should need 373.

Projected deaths per day:

The maximum projected deaths per day has declined to 46 pm April 20th, two days from now. Previously, UW had projected a maximum of 138 that on April 19th, tomorrow.

Projected total deaths:

The new projected total of 914 COVID-19 deaths in Maryland is a 61% drop from the projection on April 6th of 2326.

An increasingly vocal minority believes that the much improved projections mean that COVID-19 was much ado about nothing. Except that as epidemiologists have tried to explain, the better the outcome, the less it will appear it was necessary because an improved job will have been done at stopping the infection in its track. The improved projections are due to extensive social distancing, not a random event.