Category Archives: 2018 Elections

2018 Elections

No Hogan Coattails in House as Dems Set to Gain 2-4 Delegates

Right now, not a single Democrat is going down in the House of Delegates. Instead, Republicans will lose seats. No coattails for Hogan as he wins on bipartisan governance.

Robert Flanagan is going down by 20 points in Howard District 9B to Courtney Watson.

Not only in Del. Eric Bromwell winning reelection in Baltimore County District 8, he may be accompanied by another Democrat. Right now, Democrat Harry Bhandari is in second place with incumbent Republican Del. Joe Cluster in third place.

Harford District 34A is a real shocker. Not only is incumbent Democratic Del. Mary Ann Lisanti breezing to victory, but her running mate, Steve Johnson, leads incumbent Republican Del. Glen Glass by 30 votes with all precincts reporting. This will go down to provisionals and absentees.

In District 30A, Speaker Busch will finally be joined by a Democrat. Retiring Del. Herb McMillan will be replaced by Alice Cain, who is easily defeating her Republican opponents by miles.

 

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2018 Elections

Senate Looking Good for Democrats

Republicans made a drive for five Senate seats in the hopes of being able to uphold a veto by Gov. Larry Hogan. Hogan is coming back but the early vote is not encouraging in the drive for five.

Right now, the Republicans are leading in two seats. They are up by two points in District 42, an expected pickup by Del. Chris West of an open seat. Republican Del. Mary Beth Carozza is up by 6 over Sen. Jim Mathias on the Eastern Shore.

There is one more very close seat. Right now, Sen. Kathy Klausmeier leads Del. Christian Miele by just over 1% but only two precincts are left to report. This could go down to provisional ballots.

Ron Young looked very endangered in District 3 in Frederick but leads with 57%. Sarah Elfreth is on to an encouraging start in open District 30 in Anne Arundel with 58%

No surprises in the likely Dem seats, as Dels. Lam and Beidle look set to move up to the Senate. Sen. Prez Mike Miller breezing to victory.

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2018 Elections

Klausmeier in Trouble in Baltimore County

Sen. Kathy Klausmeier (D-8) is barely leading Del. Christian Miele in the early vote. This looks bad for her as Democrats normally lead int he early vote, which skews their way.

In District 42, Robbie Leonard (D) leads Del. Chris West (R) by 7% in the early vote. We’ll have to see how this develops in a seat that the Republicans are expecting to take tonight.

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2018 Elections

First Tea Leaves Bad for Jealous, Elrich Leading Easily

Montgomery is reporting the early vote now. For Governor, Jealous-Turnbull has 60% to 40% for Hogan-Rutherford. The early vote skewed very Democratic in Montgomery. If Hogan is getting 40% of the EV in Montgomery, he’s going to win easily.

Contrast that with the 84-85% that Frosh and Franchot-the D nominees for AG and Comprtroller, respectively-are receiving in Montgomery. While one poll made Frosh look shaky, he’s doing very well in his home county.

Meanwhile Marc Elrich has 68% (!) of the early vote in Montgomery to just 20% for Floreen and 12% for Ficker (R). Looks like Elrich is headed back to Rockville but as County Executive this time. Democrats are doing their usual sweep in other MoCo offices.

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2018 Elections

Your Election Night County Executive Scorecard

Eight Maryland counties elect county executives. These powerful offices are the equivalent of being mayor of a city. Incumbents are seeking reelection in five counties.

State’s Attorney Angela Alsobrooks is sure to win in Prince George’s where the Democratic nomination is tantamount to election.

Baltimore County has quite the race between John Olszewski, Jr. and Al Redmer. Republicans think they have this one, partly due to the enormous margins Hogan is expected to rack up. But Olszewski has unified Democrats and is pulling out all the stops. Democrats think he’ll win this one.

In Anne Arundel and Howard, Democrats are running unexpectedly lively challenges to two favored Republican incumbents. In Anne Arundel, development is a major issue, as are incumbent Steve Schuh’s occasional wanderings into more right-wing rhetoric on non-county issues.

Allen Kittleman in Howard has a more moderate profile but faces a more Democratic electorate. Additionally, Howard has exactly the highly educated profile of places that are swinging hard to the Democrats this year.

Despite challenges, both Anne Arundel and Howard lean Republican and it will an upset if Democrats win either. Based on past election statistics and the political leanings of each county, Schuh ought to be harder to defeat. But Kittleman has carefully tailored his profile to his county.

Montgomery has more of a race than usual. Councilmember Floreen has abandoned the Democrats to run as an independent. Though she often voted with Elrich on the Council, Floreen argues that Marc Elrich is too hostile to business. Republicans are left with perennial candidate Robin Ficker.

Elrich should win easily notwithstanding ongoing hostility from the Washington Post and their support for Floreen. Despite an influx of cash into Floreen’s campaign coffers, her campaign has just not been visible enough to make the case against Elrich needed in order to persuade the overwhelmingly Democratic electorate to defect to her in sufficient numbers.

In contrast, Elrich has attacked Floreen as a tool of developer interests and maintained good pre-election contact with Democrats. As a former council president, Floreen represents the status quo in a year when voters seem ready for change.

Even if Floreen does well in the less Democratic upcounty, she will still have to contend with the heavily Democratic crescent that contains far more voters. There are just too many loyal Democrats and not enough has been done to peel them off.

Finally, portions of Floreen’s campaign seem designed to alienate Republicans and she needs their support. Floreen has repeatedly identified herself as lifelong Democrat and publicized photos with Hillary Clinton. Neither seem likely to woo Republicans. Since Republicans have shown themselves willing to reject Ficker, I’m not sure it was the best approach.

I can’t say I know enough about the remaining races to make any strong predictions. In Frederick, Del. Kathy Afzali is challenging incumbent County Exec. Jan Gardner in what I imagine is a hard fought race in this purple county. Harford and Wicomico are the sorts of places that tend to elect Republicans countywide.

Now, I’m heading out to go vote. If you haven’t done the same, I encourage you to join me at the polls!

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2018 Elections, House of Delegates

Your House of Delegates Scorecard

Any House of Delegates district that is crosspressured in the sense of having voted for Clinton in the 2016 presidential and for Hogan in the 2014 gubernatorial made this list. It additionally includes one district that elected a Democratic delegate in 2014 despite leaning Republican in these two contests.

Nevertheless, in many ways, the House of Delegates races are less interesting than the Senate. Republicans correctly perceive their chances of obtaining a veto-sustaining minority as greater in the Senate than the House.

Vulnerable Republican

Del. Robert Flanagan in District 9B is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in either house of the General Assembly. While Hogan won his district by 16 in 2014, Clinton won it by 19 in 2016. This Howard district is exactly the type that is trending hard towards the Democrats due to its highly educated electorate.

Even worse for Flanagan, his opponent is Courtney Watson. While Watson lost the county executive race to Allen Kittleman in 2014, she is a well-known and experienced candidate. Flanagan will need all the luck he can get to hang on to his seat.

Vulnerable Democrats

While Republican Glen Glass is likely safe in District 34A, any Democrat in Harford County always has to watch their back. Del. Mary Ann Lisanti who also represents 34A is no exception. The district, centered on Havre de Grace, went slightly for Clinton in 2016. The likelihood that Hogan will roll up an even greater margin than the 23 points he won in 2014 is no help to Lisanti. Still, she’s established and voters here clearly are used to splitting tickets.

In east Baltimore County District 8, the Republicans are likely safe and looking to take sole Democrat Del. Eric Bromwell’s seat. But Bromwells have long been a strong candidate in this district and he may be a tad better positioned than Sen. Kathy Klausmeier.

But Johnny Oleszewski’s family also had its own brand in neighboring District 6 before he lost in 2014. Bromwell came in third in 2014. While the best candidate that the Democrats could run, the question remains whether Bromwell can overcome a Hogan margin even more massive than the 36 points from 2014 in a district moving away from the Democrats.

Seeking a second term, Del. Ned Carey already represents Republican territory in District 31A in Anne Arundel. It went for Trump over Clinton by 4 points and for Hogan over Brown by 30 points. I suppose the good news for him is that the Hogan margin was smaller than in Bromwell’s district.

If he won this turf in tough 2014, Carey may be hard to dislodge in a more favorable 2018. Still, Carey won by just 52.6% in 2014, so has only a small cushion. Located just south of Baltimore City, the question is whether a less hellacious political climate can overcome an even larger margin for Hogan.

Likely Democrats (and Vulnerable Republican seat)

In District 30, Speaker Busch is looking to pick up the seat being vacated for his long-time bête noire Herb McMillan. While the Republicans always look to take out Busch, the recent Democratic sweep in Annapolis bodes far better for a Democratic pickup than a surprise defeat of Maryland’s longest serving Speaker.

I doubt Republicans will take out either Del. Michael Jackson in District 27B or pickup any of the three delegate seats in District 32, though Del. Michael Chang is the only incumbent running. Clinton won both districts by at least 12 points. Hogan’s margins will not be high enough to allow Republicans to capitalize on the gov’s success when split-ticket voting is rampant.

Safe Democrats

It seems virtually impossible that the Democrats will lose seats in Districts 3A, 11, ,12 or 42A. Hillary Clinton won all of these districts by more than 17 points. Voters in these districts are happy to split their tickets in the gubernatorial but it won’t be enough to take out the Democratic delegate candidates.

In District 3, Sen. Ron Young is endangered but District 3A excludes the most Republican turf. Dels. Carol Krimm and Karen Young should return to the House.

In District 11, the Republicans are running only one candidate. Incumbents Shelly Hettleman and Dana Stein will be rejoined by Jon Cardin, who ran unsuccessfully for attorney general in 2014.

District 12 contains much territory in Howard with many highly educated voters of the sort that are moving Democratic this year. There is little reason to think that the Republicans will close the substantial gap of several thousand votes from 2014. In any case, their top vote getter from that year is running for Senate. I expect Democratic Dels. Eric Ebersole and Terri Hill to be joined by Jessica Feldmark.

Incumbent Stephen Lafferty did not run for Senate and instead chose to seek reelection in District 42A. While Hogan will carry this district, it is hard to imagine Republicans defeating Lafferty in a district that went for Clinton by 30 points.

Early Voting Stats for These Districts

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