All posts by John Gallagher

US Senate

Elijah for Senate?

Elijah-Cummings-AP-Images-hearing

A US Senate race between Rep. Elijah Cummings and Rep. Chris Van Hollen would be an epic and historic race to behold, and might  reduce Donna Edwards–who has the least seniority of the three and is the weakest fundraiser by far–to the role of spoiler.

A Regional Candidate
Congressmen Cummings could be expected to carry the City of Baltimore by a bone crushingly large margin. A similar margin could be expected in suburban Howard County, where he is popular. Elijah would also likely win Baltimore County–he already represents a large swath of it.

Elijah might also challenge hometown heroine Donna Edwards in Prince George’s County. Many local leaders are not close with Rep. Edwards and might lend their support to Rep. Cummings. Regardless, if Reps. Van Hollen and Edwards split the suburban DC vote, Rep. Cummings could emerge as victor based on unified support in the 410 area code.

Overlap
No question about it, if Elijah enters the race, he causes serious problems for Donna Edwards. She would no longer be able to hope to claim a base of African American voters in Baltimore City and would face serious competition in her own home base of Prince George’s.

At the outset, a split black field would seem to help CVH. But natural areas of expansions outside of Montgomery for Chris from Ellicott City to Towson would be cut off. On the whole, I’d see Elijah’s entry into the race as a win for Chris, but I think he’s a lot more likely to lose to Elijah than Donna.

 

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Nancy Navarro

Response to Nancy Navarro

I recently published a post on on Center Maryland decrying failure of the Montgomery County Council to articulate a clear vision for our rapidly changing community. Councilmember Nancy Navarro responded here. I appreciated her taking the time to respond and wanted to address some of the points that she raised.

Education

First, Councilmember Navarro rightfully acknowledges the immense challenges that the sea change in the demographics of Montgomery County Public Schools.

But Councilmember Navarro discussion focuses on her work in the context of the President’s Advisory Commission on Educational Excellence for Hispanics but says nothing about what the County Council has done. Moreover, sitting next to Shakira on a vanity federal commission does nothing for the children of Long Branch, Langley Park, Bel Pre and Briggs Chaney.

We really have two communities here in Montgomery County–the wealthy west side and the hardscrabble east side. While the inequities between the East and West sides require a multi-pronged approach here’s one place to start: the school choice system we’ve implemented here is a bad joke: what’s the point of a lottery between five high poverty, high crime High Schools? Add B-CC,  Whitman, WJ and Churchill to the Down County Consortium and watch how fast things change.

Business

Next Navarro points to the fact that the Council has passed many master and sector plans, though much of the heavy lifting on these is done by the Planning Board, not the Council, as evidence of major progress on economic development. The idea of trumpeting these  routine zoning measures is frankly a little sad. As we sit on the verge of losing Marriott, it’s dangerous.

Navarro calls my assertion that the council’s efforts on economic development are insufficient “laughable.” In my conversations with business owners, they emphasize that the County government acts merely as a regulatory authority to ensure rules are followed–and seems uninterested in helping businesses succeed and create jobs.

The District of Colombia and Northern Virginia have explosive growth in the early stage tech company sector. Montgomery County has completely missed the boat here, which is sad because given the presence of NIST, the 270 Biotech Corridor and NIH we should have been well positioned.

More importantly, instead of dealing with Northrop Grumman, Marriott and other major corporate headquarters relocation drama as they occur, why haven’t we developed a comprehensive plan for the attraction and retention of these Blue Chip Corporate Citizens? Why aren’t we actively trying to poach Fortune 500 Companies from Northern Virginia?

Finally, Navarro points out that the Council has to look out for the many affluent residents of the county. I paid a forty percent tax rate this year. I understand that high taxes are necessary to provide for top flight government services. But, right now, I feel that I’m not getting my money’s worth.

Conclusion

We are one community. If we can restore equity to our forty percent poverty school system and jump start our stagnant economy this benefits Bethesda just as much as Briggs Chaney. It is in the interest of everyone for the entire county to succeed–not just wealthy pockets on the West Side.

Our community needs real leadership. Our community needs an economic development plan for the 21st Century–a key part of that is how we increase our human capital. In short, Montgomery County needs real vision for the future. If we handle these challenges wisely, we can emerge stronger than ever. If we continue to ignore them, we risk frittering away the advantages we now hold.

 

 

 

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Congress, Prince George's

MD-04 Battle Looms Large

Jolene Ivey, Doug Gansler

Former State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey at the Announcement of
Del. Jolene Ivey’s bid for Lieutenant Governor

Rep. Donna Edwards is announcing her Senate bid today, which means a slew of people are thinking of running for the open Fourth.

Maryland’s Fourth Congressional District, which stretches from Anne Arundel County and around the border of the District of Columbia to take in most of inside the beltway Prince George’s County, is the wealthiest, most highly educated African American majority district in the country. We can expect a lively, crowded primary for this heavily Democratic seat.

The Hon. Rev. Bishop Senator C. Anthony Muse
Perhaps the most flamboyantly colorful member of the Maryland Legislature (Delegate Oaks of Baltimore City is more sartorially extroverted but he lacks Muse’s flair for the dramatic in other regards) brings a large base of south County voters and will have support among the large community of African-American Evangelical voters in the 4th.

How he expands his base is an open question, as his fundraising. He can’t be counted out, though his noted conservative positions, particularly on social issues, will attract a rush of progressive money to any other candidate if it looks like he stands a chance.

Former State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey or Former Del. Jolene Ivey
Glenn Ivey is a very dynamic, well connected former Prince George’s County State’s Attorney with a wealth of downtown DC connections to lean on. It’s rumored that his wife, former Delegate Jolene Ivey is making calls soliciting support for a potential bid on his behalf.

While he was an immensely popular State’s Attorney, he’s in a less strong position than if this primary were happening closer to when he last held office. On the other hand, former Del. Jolene Ivey, his wife, just ran for Lt. Governor, and only continued to build upon on her already positive image. She too would be an excellent candidate. In short, both are terrific political assets to the other.

Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk
Joseline Peña-Melnyk looks potentially like the only Latino candidate in the race as it appears that State Senator Victor Ramirez will take a pass. However, there are fewer than 20,000 registered Latinos in district so this community only provides so large a base. Peña-Melnyk is Dominican, while most of the Latinos in the district are Salvadorian (as is Ramirez). Furthermore, much of District 21, which she represents, is in the Fifth District.

Mary Lehman
Mary Lehman is a term-limited Prince George’s County Councilwoman representing much of the Laurel area. She previously served as Chief of Staff to the last person to hold her current seat–Tom Dernoga. While well liked and respected by many in the community, she lacks to rolodex to raise the millions needed for a competitive campaign.

She would likely be perceived by many as the white candidate, although in a crowded field in a black-majority district that isn’t necessarily a bad place to be. Especially when even though the majority of residents are African American, a slight majority of registered voters are white.

Del. Erek Barron
He is a freshmen Delegate from Prince George’s County with a long resume that includes stints working for Joe Biden and as a high level prosecutor. Barron has deep ties into the legal community in Baltimore and the District of Colombia, as well as on Capitol Hill. He could likely raise more money than all other candidates except either of the Iveys. He has already impressed many in his brief time in the legislature and shouldn’t be underestimated.

Former Lt. Governor Anthony Brown
Mere months ago the idea that today Anthony Brown would be a heavy underdog candidate in a potential comeback for an open congressional seat would be so fundamentally bizarre and incongruous that it belied even a hint of plausibility. But, lo, how the mighty hath fallen

While Brown is currently largely persona non grata throughout Maryland, he is a very talented, fairly charismatic pol  with a sterling resume who did carry his home county very strongly. Far stranger things have happened (See: Sanford, Mark).  Don’t count him out.

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Montgomery County, US Senate

John Delaney for Senate?

delaney

John Delaney is a two-term U.S. representative who founded two publicly traded companies focused on financial services. He may well be the only candidate able to point to significant private sector experience. While he not always the most charismatic, he’s very, very smart and is well-versed in economic policy in a way that is rare for an elected official.

Money, Money, Money

John Delaney is worth a cool nine figures and over the last few years has spent around $5 million dollars of his own funds on his U.S. House bids. Always nice to be able to drop more than most will see in a lifetime like it’s buying a nice meal out.

In contrast, Chris Van Hollen and all other candidates will need to spend months locked in windowless rooms begging lobbyists and national donors for $2,600 checks in hopes of funding broadcast media buys in the extremely expensive DC and Baltimore Markets.

For the record, DC Broadcast at saturation costs $450,000 per week. Delaney can put $10 million, $15 million, perhaps even $20 million dollars in his campaign account in five minutes,  freeing up his time for extensive retail politicking in far flung corners of the state.

Moreover, his money will buy a vast army of top tier hired guns and mercenary political consultants. As his campaign against Sen. Rob Garagiola showed in 2012, John Delaney knows how to hire good people and run an effective campaign.

John Delaney will bombard a microtargeted universe of likely Democratic Primary voters with glossy mailers and online advertisements. His (paid) canvassers will be at their doors daily. And, months before anyone else can afford to do so, his TV ads will flood living rooms from Silver Spring to Severna Park.

And frankly, that stuff works.

But Money Can’t Buy You Love

Chris Van Hollen will likely retain the loyalties of the northwestern Montgomery County residents he represented prior to redistricting (and are now) in the Sixth District–a real problem for Delaney as he  needs those voters.

Moreover, John Delaney doesn’t have CVH’s massive base of volunteers and true believers. Donna Edwards also has the potential to attract a lot of ground support. These canvassers tend to be more effective than those in it for the (small) paycheck because they actually believe in the candidate.

Delaney’s opponents may argue that he made a fortune as a predatory lender. Moreover, ss dozens of other self funders have taught us, all the money in the world can’t buy enough advertising to make voters change their minds if they decide they don’t like you or just prefer someone else even if you’re a good candidate.

Labor

Labor Unions across the board united to oppose John Delaney’s first congressional bid. He’s since returned the animosity through numerous votes on infrastructure issues, which has angered the more traditionalist factions like the building trades and the AFL-CIO. He has also cast pro-Wall Street votes on the Financial Services committee, which has angered the more movement progressive type unions like SEIU. It can be expected that they will put whatever clout they have into denying him a promotion to the Senate.

Overlap and Niche

As a white Montgomery County congressmen, Delaney and CVH share the most base overlap.

Delaney will also be the most centrist candidate. He has repeatedly touted his moderate proposals and ability to work with Republicans–an approach that looks better in general than primary elections. To the extent a centrist bloc exists in a statewide Maryland Democratic Primary, he largely has that lane to himself. This may give Delaney room for expansion in the Baltimore suburbs, the Eastern Shore, and Southern Maryland.

Delaney also shares several political advisors such as pollster Fred Yang, media firm SKDKnickerbocker and Chief of Staff Justin Schall who work with other potential candidates. They will have to pick a side when their clients challenge each other for higher office.

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US Senate

Senator Sarbanes?

With the retirement of Sen. Barbara Mikulski, scores of talented and ambitious politicians are weighing a bid for her seat. Here we take a look at one of them: Rep. John Sarbanes.

Scion

John Sarbanes is a telegenic, fairly young rank and file representative from the Baltimore area.

John Sarbanes is also the son of Paul Sarbanes, a political giant who held one of Maryland’s Senate Seats until 2006. (His brother Michael also ran for Baltimore City Council President in 2007.) As such he comes with instant name ID and a brand to lean on that’s particularly strong among white voters in the Baltimore metropolitan area.

The Sarbanes family is very prominent in the national Greek community, which can be a potent fundraising source, and a very active ethnic community in Maryland politics. It also doesn’t hurt that his father was from Salisbury on the Eastern Shore.

The only wrinkle in the ointment here is that Maryland has rejected some scions for higher office. Beyond Kathleen Kennedy-Townsend and Mark Shriver in 2002, Democratic voters more recently did not support Del. Jon Cardin’s bid for attorney general. However, Sarbanes is already a federal official, and these three hardly provide evidence of a definitive trend.

A Statewide District 

Sarbanes currently represents Maryland’s Third Congressional District, which due to it’s gerrymandered nature takes in parts of Montgomery, Anne Arundel, Howard and Baltimore Counties as well as pieces of Baltimore City. As such, Sarbanes has had the opportunity to be a presence across central Maryland.

He will however likely be strongest among white voters in the city of Baltimore and its suburbs. O’Malley’s decision to forego leaves Sarbanes poised to be the only white Democratic candidate from the Baltimore area–unless Dutch Ruppersberger dives into the race.

Fundraising

Sarbanes has often made campaign finance reform a key issue in his campaigns. In 2012, he forced himself to collect one thousand checks of $100 or less from first time donors within his district before he could unlock a $500,000 war chest of previously raised funds. His website says he expanded this program in 2014.

Such a model would not be viable in a statewide effort where budgets are expected to reach eight figures. How he balances his commitment to campaign finance reform with the realities of a bid for higher office will be an interesting dynamic to observe.

Overlap with other Candidates 

Few of the most prominent candidates considering the race would be able to chunk out the Sarbanes base among white voters in metropolitan Baltimore, although Stephanie Rawlings-Blake has historically enjoyed substantive support in the white precincts of Baltimore City.

How he expands beyond the 410 area code will be a quandary for Sarbanes to consider over the next few days.

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Republicans

Del. Mike Smigiel Goes Off on Ferguson & New York

smigiel

Outgoing Republican Del. Mike Smigiel has chosen to end his tenure in elected office by calling the President of the United States, the Attorney General of the United States, the Mayor of New York City and Al Sharpton of being morally guilty of killing cops.

Perhaps these statements are Smigiel’s way of launching his 2018 comeback bid. But these public statements reveal why Republicans showed good judgement in denying him renomination for a fifth term this year, albeit partially because of an unusual number of competitors also hailing from Cecil County in this Eastern Shore district.

Smigiel’s defeat is also a blessing for Governor-Elect Larry Hogan. Statements like these by Republican members of the General Assembly will be totally unhelpful to his efforts to work with Democrats who hold over two-thirds of the seats in both the House and the Senate. It also undermines Republican efforts to expand their share of centrist and African-American voters.

UPDATE: Apparently, Del. Smigiel also realizes that his Facebook post showed poor judgement and has taken it down (h/t @BaltMediaBlog).

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Republicans

The Republican Bench

The Statewide Republican bench for 2022 got a whole lot deeper on November 4th.

Alan Kittleman
Pro-Marriage Equality, Anti-Death Penalty former State Senator and Howard County Executive Alan Kittleman is a suburban moderate Republican of the northeastern breed that’s been dying out since the early 90’s–socially liberal and fiscal conservative  with a patrician demeanor.  Kittleman brings a growing base in Howard County to a statewide contest.

Boyd Rutherford
The Lt Governor is supposedly an apolitical technocrat with no desire to run for office at the top of a ticket. But an apolitical technocrat who happens to be an African American from the Baltimore Suburbs with a certain affable charm could be a truly amazing statewide candidate. Food for thought.

Barry Glassman
The new Harford County Executive is a talented fundraiser and represents a rapidly growing jurisdiction with around one-quarter million residents. He has an appealingly home spun way about him and Fallston is not a bad place to start raising money for Governor.

Steve Schuh
If I were picking the Republican nominee for Governor, I’d go with the guy. Dartmouth undergrad. Harvard MBA. Masters in Education from Johns Hopkins. A former Senior Executive at two major investment banks. The incoming Chief Executive of one Maryland’s largest counties (Anne Arundel with nearly 700,000 residents). If that doesn’t spell gubernatorial contender, I don’t know what does.

Now, the most interesting play might be if instead of these guys fighting it out in the primary, they formed a formidable statewide ticket. Boyd Rutherford would be a highly intriguing candidate for Comptroller, and Alan Kittleman would be a credible candidate for Attorney General. With Schuh at the top of the ticket and and Glassman as Lt Governor, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a statewide Republican sweep.

The worst thing for the Democratic establishment to happen on November 4th wasn’t Larry Hogan’s election as Governor. It was the fact that further down ballot, Republican’s now have a legitimate bench of candidates.

Missing someone? Disagree with me? Email johnga.ems@gmail.com

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2014 Governor's Race

Why Brown & KKT Lost

Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown did not lose because of poor Democratic turnout. Neither did Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. It is a dangerous myth in our party Montgomery and  Prince George’s Counties, combined with the City of Baltimore, are enough to win a statewide election.

The even more dangerous corollary to his theory is that, if the Big Three jurisdictions are enough to deliver victory statewide, the key is to nominate a candidate capable of driving turnout among the Democratic base voters in those three very progressive bastions. Sadly, this is not the case. Even if turnout in Montgomery, Prince George’s and Baltimore City had been 10 points higher, Larry Hogan would still be the Governor-Elect.

The truth of the matter is that Democrats cannot win a statewide election if they get killed in the Baltimore suburbs. Democrats still need to win some moderates to take the prize. For years, Martin O’Malley appealled to working class Democrats in places like Dundalk and Essex, as well as a certain number of wealthier suburb and exurbanites in places like Bel Air and Towson.

This–in addition to the D next to his name in Baltimore City, MoCo and Prince George’s County–gave him a winning statewide coalition in 2006 and 2010. O’Malley nearly won Baltimore County in 2006 before taking the prize outright in 2010. In 2010, O’Malley received 35% of the vote in Harford County, while Brown barely cracked 20% four years later. Barbara Mikulski frequently wins counties in Western Maryland and on the Eastern Shore.

Interestingly, Mikulski, O’Malley, Brown and Townsend are all center left to progressive Democrats with little policy disagreement of any true substance among them. So, why the difference in performance in these key areas?

As the legendary Virginia operative Mudcat Saunders oft moans, people vote based on culture not the issues. A guitar playing, Catholic school educated Irishmen with a disarming charm like O’Malley went a long way towards making gay marriage and the Dream Act–and progressive taxation–palatable to swing voters from Easton to Essex. A grandmotherly, Polish-American social worker like Mikulski can do the same.

But a stiff, Harvard-educated, former DC lawyer originally from Long Island, who happens to be black, like Anthony Brown has limited appeal outside of the polyglot Washington suburbs and Baltimore City. Likewise, a Kennedy from Greenwich, CT had limited appeal outside of Bethesda and Roland Park in 2002.

Right now, we don’t need someone to drive out mythical hard core progressives, who came out and voted for Anthony Brown anyway. We need someone who is as comfortable at Dundalk’s Fourth of July parade as at Takoma Park’s.

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Baltimore City

South Baltimore Showdown

Baltimore City Mayor Stephanie Rawlings Blake has appointed 11th District City Councilman Bill Cole to be CEO of the Baltimore City Economic Development Corporation. Through a needlessly arcane appointment process, adjacent city council members and various community members selected by the City Council President recommend a nominee to the City Council as a whole for an up or down vote.

The Baltimore Sun has the list (which I’ve cut and pasted below).

  • Melanie A. Ambridge, a former board member of the South Baltimore Neighborhood Association
  • Darroll Cribb, CEO of The Humanitarian, Inc.
  • Eric T. Costello, president of the Federal Hill Neighborhood Association
  • Julie K. Dunham Howie, a development director at Payne Theological Seminary
  • Shannon Laurie Keeny, a board member of the Locust Point Civic Association
  • John Kucskar, a deputy legal counsel to Gov. Martin O’Malley
  • Rob LaPin, a former teacher and House of Delegates candidate
  • Arthur McGreevy, a lawyer at Silverman, Thompson, Slutkin, and White LLC
  • Harry F. Preston, V, a teacher of the year at Edmondson Westside High
  • William Romani, founding board member of non-profit One House at a Time and former House of Delegates candidate
  • Gregory Sileo, Locust Point Civic Association President
  • Benjamin R. Smith, student body president at University of Maryland School of Law and a field director on the Brian Frosh campaign for attorney general
  • David Stone, vice chairman of the Baltimore City school board
  • Shannon Sullivan, board member of the Riverside community association
  • Anthony F. Vittoria, a lawyer at the Ober|Kaler firm

It appears to me that, as outgoing Delegate Kieffer Mitchell is taking a pass, that it’s finally Bill Romani’s turn. After being bested by Del. Luke Clippinger in 2010 and Democratic Delegate Nominee Brooke Lierman in 2014, it looks like Mr. Romani is the far-and-away leader for the appointment in my opinion.

The only real danger in the appointment process that I see for Mr Romani is that there may be a push for an African-American appointee in this downtown Council District which stretches from trendy, white Federal Hill far into West Baltimore.

However, while he has not confirmed this to me, I envision Baltimore City Young Gun Ben Smith giving Bill Romani a hell of a fight in the 2016 Democratic Primary for this seat.

Ben is wicked smart and charming to a fault. While the insider appointment processes of Maryland doesn’t favor a young idealistic law student, the electorate in a competitive Democratic presidential primary does. My spidey sense tells me this will be a marquee Democratic primary in 2016.

Appointment Rating: Likely Romani

2016 Democratic Primary Election: To Early to Say. 
Read more: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-15-apply-for-vacant-city-council-seat-20140918,0,5037544.story#ixzz3DpFFQ0Lo

 

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campaign finance

The Case Against Public Financing: A Manifesto

To a certain type of Goo-Goo liberal, public financing of elections seems like a splendid idea.

It isn’t. Here is why:

The New York Example
I’ve worked perhaps even more extensively in New York politics, where City Elections are publicly financed, than in Maryland. From my reading of the bill, it appears based upon the system used to finance New York City Council races. This isn’t a good thing.

In New York State Assembly races, you can effectively finance a campaign with the support of four donors. If you happened to be running for New York City Council, you need the support of hundreds of small donors to reach the match threshold to run an effective campaign. So candidates for City Council are forced to do congressional candidate level hours of call time (20-30/week).

I remember one of the most successful fundraisers in Democratic Politics once asked me whether I’d rather ask a  thousand people for a dollar, or one person for a thousand dollars. The answer for a candidate is obviously the second one.

I’m sure that if any sitting council members truly understood that come 2018, if they pass this, they will be spending six hours a day in a windowless room calling small time activists to beg for fifty dollar donations, this bill would die a swift death.

The New York State Legislature understands this perfectly well.

I remember having a long phone conversation with one of the head lawyers for the New York Senate Democrats on this topic. He vividly related to me the story of how he told the children of Billionaire Financier George Soros that no amount of money was going to buy him a public financing law. Why you ask?

Because most term limited New York City Councilman end up in Albany and will never go back to the nightmare that is raising small dollar donation for matching funds.

The Colorado Example
In Colorado, the max out donation is $400. Typically, a targeted State Senate race in Colorado maxes out at $200,000. (This cycle they will likely hit $225,000). However, $750,000-$1,000,000 is typically spent by the Colorado Senate Democratic Majority Fund in independent expenditure. This means that the real fundraising campaigns happen outside of the campaigns themselves.

Divorced of a candidate’s name or approval, this translates into lots of nasty, negative, no holds barred political advertising. To me this bill seems like a final attempt by Phil Andrews to kneecap Montgomery County business and union interests. While I find this a vile prospect, Phil’s plan is doomed to failure. At the end of the day, Real Estate Developers and Labor Unions are savvy people. They shall do in Montgomery and circumvent the system through independent expenditures.

The Second New York Example
Mike Bloomberg was elected Mayor of New York City as a Republican because his Democratic opponents were capped at $5  million dollars in spending while he dropped nine figures on his campaign. If you want Dana Buyer, Lou Simmons and Jonathan Shurberg on the Council–the top three self funders in Montgomery County in the 2014 Democratic Primary–please vote for this bill.

The Annapolis Example
Maryland Democrats consistently win districts that should send Republicans to Annapolis (with Democratic Performance indices giving Republicans up to a ten-point edge in many seats long held by Team Blue). This is not because we run better campaigns on the Democratic side in Maryland than anywhere in the country. We’re a decade behind New York, Virginia, California and dozens of others in that regard.

It’s because in Maryland’s one-party environment, traditional economic donors that would be inclined to support Republicans (think Comcast) donate to Democrats. Which explains why Jim Mathias, the most vulnerable Democrat in Maryland’s Senate, will face a Republican with less than $50,000 all in to spend. Mathias will have north of $300,000.

If you have Republican County Council candidates with $125,000 in the bank, Democrats should expect to have competitive general elections in districts 1, 2 and 3.

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